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The Oracle: Nigeria and the Nigerien Coup: The Allegory of the Hunch-Backed Cripple (Pt.1)

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By Mike Ozekhome

INTRODUCTION

Once upon a time, a cripple with a hunchback boasted about leading his people to war. He was warned to keep off because of his visible infirmity. He was asked how he would escape when the war broke out. He said it did not matter. He believed that since he was the king of his village and the neighbouring communities, he had the talisman to succeed. He underplayed his enormous physical challenges. That is Nigeria for you as an epigram.

The crippled hunchback or the hunch-backed cripple never reckoned with the wise words of Alexander the Great who once intoned, “I am not afraid of an army of lions led by a sheep; I am afraid of an army of sheep led by a lion”.

Allegorically and metaphorically, Nigeria is the sheep attempting to lead the ECOWAS Communities which constitute the army of lions to an unholy war against Niger Republic. This poor country has done nothing wrong to Nigeria, or other ECOWAS States, but merely exercising her sovereignty within her territorial domain as she sees and deems fit. When did Nigeria become the regional Headmaster that whips other erring pupil countries to line?
What is Nigeria’s business with Niger, a sovereign country, when she is disfigured and limping, with her citizens scavenging for food from trash dumps? When did Nigeria become an adventurous knight Errant in shining armour, deodorizing the Augean stables of neighbouring countries? Where her citizens are daily being kidnapped and mauled down in cold blood in their homes, farms, markets, schools and workplaces by hunger, squalor, kidnappers, armed bandits, armed robbers and divisiveness, what is Nigeria’s locus standi? How does Nigeria seek to remove the speck in another country’s eye, when a log is deeply buried in her own eye? I do not know. Or, do you?

HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVES: WHY NIGERIA IS ERRING
No country ever intervened in Nigeria’s internal affairs throughout her locust years of misgovernance and successive military putsches. We had coups on 15th January, 1966 (the Majors coup led by Major Chukwuma Kaduna Nzeogwu and Others). We were never harassed when on 28th July, 1966, Military Officers in Nigeria carried out the counter coup known as the “July Rematch”, which was masterminded by Lt. Col. Murtala Mohammed and many Northern military officers such as Theophilus Danjuma, Joseph Akaha, Martin Adamu and others). No country ever poke-nosed into our internal affairs when Nigeria was governed by a young military bachelor, 32 years old Yakubu Jack Gowon, who ruled Nigeria by military diktat for over 8 years (1967-1975). Nigeria was not invaded by ECOWAS or AU (then called OAU) when Col. Joseph Nanven Garba (a close associate of Gowon) announced on Federal Radio, the overthrow of Gowon who was actually attending the OAU Conference in Kampala, Uganda, and replacement with Murtala Mohammed, on 30th July, 1975. I did not hear about any revolt in neighbouring countries when Murtala Mohammed was assassinated during the Col. Buka Suka Dimka – led failed coup on 13th February, 1976; and Olusegun Obasanjo replaced him and ruled Nigeria for over 3 years between 1976 and 1979.

I cannot remember ECOWAS or OAU having an emergency meeting to plan on how to invade Nigeria when lanky Muhammadu Buhari overthrew the democratically elected government of Alhaji Aliyu Shehu Usman Shagari, a former school headmaster, who was once described by an avid political commentator as having a cap longer than his achievements.

No country sought to teach Nigeria democracy when on 27th August, 1985, gap-toothed Ibrahim Babangida (“the evil genius”) led other military officers to overthrow the then excessively iron-handed and inhuman military dictator and recently ethnic warlord, Muhammadu Buhari.
When on 22nd April, 1990, Major Gideon Gwaza Orkar failed in a bloody coup against maradonic Babangida and the coupist were promptly dislodged, arrested, “tried” and executed, I never heard any other county meddle into our internal affairs.

On 17th November, 1993, when dark-googled, dwarfish, taciturn, but intelligent Sani Abacha shoved aside the interim government of business mogul and former UAC Chairman, Chief Ernest Shonekan, in a bloodless palace coup, I did not see any external intervention. I and others were led by Chief Gani Fawehinmi, SAN, SAM, who went to court on 10th November, 1993, got the lame duck, fumbling, dawdling, groggy and crumbling “interim nonsense” declared illegal and unconstitutional by the courageous Justice Dolapo Akinsanya (of blessed memory; may her good soul rest in peace).

Even with Nigeria’s ever increasing challenges likened to Mounts Everest and Kilimanjaro, including those of the “doctrine of necessity”, endemic corruption, parlous economy and recession; armed banditry; Boko haram; kidnappings; hunger, thirst, sorrow, tears, blood, melancholy, abject penury, maladministration and crass misgovernance, that have turned Nigeria virtually into a gruesome crime scene, no external country (not even powerful America and other western countries like China, Russia, EU, etc) have ever dared to invade us, or come to teach us how to run our tattered and battered country. So, what gives this government that is still struggling like a straight snake battling to wear beads on a non-existent waist the temerity and audacity to think it can lead ECOWAS to invade Niger and teach her leaders and people how to govern themselves, and run their affairs? I do not know. Or, do you?

THE NIGERIEN COUP AND THE RIGHT TO SELF-DETERMINATION
On the fateful day of 26th July, 2023, Niger, a poor West African nation known for its political instability, was once again thrust into turmoil as a coup d’état unfolded, shaking the very foundations of its young democracy. In a swift and audacious move, the country’s presidential guard detained President Mohamed Bazoum, igniting a chain of events that would redefine the nation’s political landscape. The coup leader, General Abdourahamane Tchiani, promptly declared himself the head of a new military junta, casting a shadow of uncertainty over Niger’s future. This marked the fifth time since its independence from France in 1960 that the nation had experienced a military coup, marking a disturbing trend that raised questions about the stability of democratic institutions in the region.

Presidential guard forces swiftly enacted measures that further consolidated their hold on power, including border closures, suspension of state institutions, and imposition of a curfew. The international community, including the West African regional bloc ECOWAS, quickly responded with condemnation. It denounced the coup as a grave violation of democratic principles and threatening military intervention. In order to tighten the noose on General Tchiani to release power, Nigeria promptly cut off her 150 megawatts of daily supply of electricity to Niger Republic. The Jibia-Magama border with Kastina State in Nigeria was promptly blockaded, thus crippling major socio-economic activities in Kastina State. There has been closure of land and air borders and suspension of all commercial and financial transactions between ECOWAS Member states and Niger, etc.

Both Burkina Faso and Mali have already made good their threat of solidarity with Niger by sending in their warplanes. ECOWAS has since suspended the three countries from its fold.

The leader of the military junta that seized power in the Niger Republic, Gen. Abdourahamane Tchiani, said last week that his country is not hungry for war, but will be ready to defend itself of necessary. Yes, he can say this legitimately because both defacto and dejure, he is the Head of State of his country, having seized the reins of power from a fumbling President, Mohamed Bazoum. Said he through Aljazeera:
“Neither the Army nor the people of Niger want war, but we will resist any manifestation of it”.

Tchiani noted that Member states of the ECOWAS do not unfortunately realise that Niger has become the key to containing the region from destabilization against the backdrop of increased terrorist activities.
Tchiani argued that sanctions imposed by the ECOWAS against his country were aimed at merely putting pressure o the rebels and not designed to finding a solution to the current impasse.

Tchiani also said that the rebels were not seeking to seize power in the country for the sake of it, rather, to find a solution that would meet the Nigerien people’s interests.
Some political pundits joked that this aggression and unusual passion and éclat with which Nigeria is leading the battle could be Tinubu’s way of getting back at Buhari who had said severally whilst in power, that he would gladly relocate to join his kins and kiths in Niger Republic if Nigerians worry or harass him after leaving office. Could this be the case? I do not know. Or, do you?

As tensions escalated, the stage has become set for what many have now dubbed the “2023 Nigerien crisis”.

ECOWAS AND ITS POWERS OF INTERVENTION
The Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS), which decided to invade Niger to restore “democracy”, was established by the Treaty of Lagos on 28th May, 1975, when Yakubu Gowon was military Head of State. It was actually Gowon and Gnassigbe Eyadema of Togo that spear-headed its formation.

Principally, ECOWAS was established with the aims and objectives of promoting economic cooperation and integration. It aims to establish an economic union in West Africa in order to raise the living standards of its peoples, and to maintain and enhance economic stability, foster relations among member states, and contribute to the progress and development of the African continent.

The ECOWAS is made up of 15 members, vis, Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, cote d’Ivoire, The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone and Togo. ECOWAS Region spans an area of 5.2 million square kilometres, with a combined population of 424.34 million people, which is 3.4 percent of the habitable area around the entire world and 5.3 percent of world population.
At the regional arena, Article 4 of the ECOWAS Revised Treaty (2010), listed the independence of member states as the first Fundamental Principle in the following words:
“THE HIGH CONTRACTING PARTIES, in pursuit of the objectives stated in Article 3 of this Treaty, solemnly affirm and declare their adherence to the following principles: a) equality and inter-dependence of Member States”.

At the international arena, Article 2(4) of the United Nations Charter (UN Charter) provides for the prohibition of threat or use of force in international relations thus:
“All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations”.

In all these objectives, nowhere was ECOWAS specifically permitted to declare war on another member state. It is true that when the December, 2016 presidential elections the tiny state of Gambia (population of only 12,777,168 people) were disputed, ECOWAS had managed to “restore democracy” by using the threat of military force; but without actually using direct physical violence. Amongst others, Gambia’s small size; the fact that it is land locked, surrounded by Senegal; and its lack of a strong military base to withstand the firepower of possible ECOWAS attack, had led to the coupists pre-emptively backing down without a single shot by the ECOWAS group. It is also true that both the UN Security Council had backed ECOWAS with some form of legitimacy for that intervention. This is unlike the present scenario in Niger Republic (with 27.202 million people), where world bodies and Nations outside ECOWAS have carefully distanced themselves); or at best, maintained some level of caution and neutrality.

To be continued

BY PROF. MIKE OZEKHOME, SAN, CON, OFR, FCIArb, LL.M, Ph.D, LL.D, D.Litt

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Opinion

The Stockholm Syndrome in the Delta

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By Boma Lilian Braide Esq.

The water remembers. It remembers when we were queens and kings of the creeks, when our voices carried across the rivers like thunder, and when no external force could dictate the terms of our existence.

Today, as a daughter of the Ijaw nation, I look at our political landscape and my heart breaks into a thousand pieces. The recent withdrawal of Pastor Tonye Cole from the political race reopened a wound that never properly healed. I immediately texted him a single, urgent question: “Why?” His response was a resigned, familiar phrase; “It is well.” At that exact moment, my thoughts were screaming so loudly inside my head, “Not again!” It felt like a brutal repetition of an old script. Every single time, without fail, they treat the Ijaw man badly, pushing him out of the room where decisions are made.

This leadership class continually trades our birthright for political crumbs, leaving me with a profound sadness I cannot shake. Every four years, we are forced to watch the same exhausting, predictable cycle play out. We have become the laughing stock of the Nigerian politics. We roar like lions in the morning, only to allow ourselves to be led like sheep to the slaughter house by nightfall. This pattern is not merely a string of tactical errors. It is a structural and psychological condition that has calcified into our political culture. We begin every election season with unparalleled bravery, massive energy, clarity, and a list of demands. We mobilise, we protest, we declare our rights. Yet at the decisive moment we fold. We trade collective power for personal gain. We accept crumbs while the harvest is taken from our lands allowing our leaders to be used as mere pawns, chess pieces, and foot soldiers on a board completely controlled by outsiders.

Call it what it is, a political Stockholm syndrome. When a people are held hostage by extractive systems for generations, they can begin to see the captor as a provider. When political actors poison our rivers, burn our gas, and extract our wealth, then return during elections with token gifts, the damaged political imagination can mistake those gifts for benevolence. A motorcycle, a solar lamp, a bag of rice, or a ten thousand naira note becomes a substitute for structural justice. We applaud the giver and forget the theft.

This is not a partisan indictment. The major parties have all participated in this system. From the coastal edges of Ondo and Edo, through Rivers and Bayelsa, to the riverine communities of Delta and Akwa Ibom, the script is the same. Political machines arrive with cash and spectacle. They leave with votes. They do not stay to build roads, to clean oil spills, to fund health care, or to restore fisheries. They do not invest in education or in the infrastructure that would make our communities resilient. They know they do not have to. They know that the combination of poverty, fragmentation, and short-term survival instincts will deliver the votes they need.

The spectacle in Rivers State is instructive. The conflict between an incumbent and a predecessor is not only a personal rivalry. It is a mirror of a deeper structural problem. An Ijaw son may occupy the governor’s office, but the expectation of loyalty to an external power broker remains. When disagreements arise, the Ijaw polity does not close ranks. Instead, it fractures. Elders, youth groups, and political actors align with different external centres of power. We tear ourselves apart while the larger system remains intact.

Delta State offers another painful example. The region produces a disproportionate share of the oil wealth that sustains the state and the nation. Yet Ijaw communities are routinely relegated to secondary roles in governance. The highest offices are often out of reach. When an Ijaw candidate shows real ambition, the pressure to step down, to accept a consolation prize, or to be bought off intensifies at the last minute. The result is a steady stream of symbolic representation and token appointments that do not translate into structural change.

Even Bayelsa State, our most homogenous political home, has not been immune. The state has been turned into a dependent outpost. Political life there is often conducted under the shadow of Abuja. During elections, communities are militarized. Young people are paid paltry sums to snatch ballot boxes and intimidate their neighbours. The leaders who emerge from such processes rarely prioritize environmental remediation, health care, or education. They prioritize survival within the national political economy.

Why do we accept this? Part of the answer lies in a minority complex that has been cultivated over generations. We have been taught to believe that because we are numerically small and geographically dispersed across several states, we cannot set national terms. That belief is false. Our geographic position along the southern maritime border gives us leverage. Nigeria’s economy cannot function without the peace of our creeks. Yet we negotiate from a position of weakness because we lack a unified, non-partisan political command structure.

Other major ethnic blocs in Nigeria have developed cultural mechanisms that protect collective interests across party lines. They maintain consensus on key strategic questions and punish those who betray the collective. The Ijaw political house, by contrast, is fragmented. We are divided into Western, Central, and Eastern blocs. Internal jealousy and rivalry consume us. When an Ijaw son or daughter rises to prominence, it is sometimes their own people who are recruited to pull them down. This internal sabotage is a major reason we are treated as expendable by national political machines.

Our representatives in national assemblies and federal boards are often the most silent and compliant. They vote for policies that harm our region because they want to protect their personal seats and committee positions. We have forgotten the intellectual foundation of our struggle. Our fathers did not rely on muscle alone. They fought with logic and strategy.

Harold Dappa Biriye used constitutional arguments to demand minority rights during the pre-independence conferences. Isaac Adaka Boro presented a detailed economic manifesto during the twelve-day revolution, exposing the systematic underdevelopment of the Delta. The Kaiama Declaration of 1998 linked environmental justice with true federalism in a way that remains a model for strategic political thinking. Today, that intellectual tradition has been eroded by a culture of thuggery, praise singing, and the pursuit of quick money.

The social and economic costs of our political submission are visible everywhere. Schools sink into the mud. Primary health centres lack basic medicines. Women die in childbirth because there are no functional boats to transport them to urban hospitals. Rivers that once sustained us are coated with crude oil. Gas flares burn day and night, releasing toxins that cause cancers and respiratory diseases. In any functioning democracy, such environmental devastation would provoke electoral punishment. But our people accept ten-thousand naira, wear party uniforms, and return the same leaders to office.

This pattern is not only morally wrong. It is strategically suicidal. The global energy transition is underway. The world is moving away from fossil fuels. In a few decades, crude oil will no longer be the primary driver of the global economy. When that happens, the Nigerian state’s willingness to distribute minor rents, amnesty stipends, and pipeline contracts will evaporate. If we remain politically domesticated and economically dependent, we will be discarded once our resources lose value. We will be left with a ruined environment and a population unprepared for the modern economy.

Breaking this cycle requires a radical transformation of our political behaviour. It requires both immediate reforms and long-term institution building.
First, we must refuse to sell our votes for temporary relief. If politicians bring money during elections, take it because it is a fraction of your stolen wealth, but enter the voting booth and vote fiercely against them if they have not delivered real, systemic progress. The act of taking money and voting against the giver is not a moral ideal. It is a pragmatic tactic that recognizes the reality of survival while asserting political agency.

Second, we must create a culture of community accountability. Any Ijaw politician, elder, or youth leader who sells out the collective interest for personal gain must face social consequences. They should be stripped of traditional honours, excluded from community gatherings, and greeted with public disapproval rather than celebration. The cost of betrayal must be made higher than the reward offered by external actors.

We must also institutionalize our collective strength. The Ijaw nation needs a permanent, non-partisan political and economic council composed of our finest minds. This council should include intellectuals, legal experts, economists, and community builders from across the globe. Its mandate would be to define a multi decade Ijaw National Agenda that transcends party lines. Any Ijaw person entering politics should be bound by that agenda. Any external political force seeking our cooperation should be required to commit to its verifiable execution.

Again, we must build strategic alliances with other coastal minority groups. From Calabar to Badagry, the coastal communities share common interests in environmental protection, maritime economies, and regional development. A unified coastal voting bloc would create a political force that no national party can ignore. Such an alliance would also strengthen bargaining power for federal resource allocation and environmental remediation.

Fifth, we must shift our economic focus from pipelines to the blue marine economy. Our future lies in the ocean. We must invest in community owned industrial fishing fleets, deep sea shipping logistics, local shipbuilding yards, and aquaculture networks. We must develop port infrastructure and maritime training centres. Economic independence is the foundation of political courage. When our communities can fund their own schools, hospitals, and water systems through independent marine enterprises, we will no longer beg for crumbs.

Sixth, we must invest in education and leadership training. Political courage is not loud rhetoric. It is disciplined strategy. We must train a new generation of leaders who understand constitutional law, public finance, environmental science, and international trade. We must teach negotiation skills, coalition building, and institutional design. The Ijaw struggle must be intellectualized and professionalized.

Seventh, we must reclaim our narrative. For too long our story has been told by others. We must document our history, our legal claims, and our environmental evidence. We must use the courts, the media, and international forums to hold polluters and complicit officials accountable. We must turn our lived experience into verifiable claims that can be litigated and publicized.

Finally, we must practice disciplined solidarity. Political unity does not mean uniformity of opinion. It means a shared commitment to core strategic objectives. It means agreeing on red lines that cannot be crossed. It means supporting candidates who commit to the Ijaw National Agenda and sanctioning those who betray it.

The hour is late. The cost of our political naivety is visible in every polluted river, every jobless youth, and every broken promise. We cannot enter another election cycle with the same broken playbook. We must reject transactional politics and demand structural change. We must hold our leaders accountable and refuse to celebrate personal appointments that bring no collective benefit.

We must heal ourselves of this political Stockholm syndrome. We must stop loving the systems that destroy us and begin the difficult work of building lasting political infrastructure. The future of the Ijaw nation depends on our ability to transform our pain into strategic power. The water is watching. The spirits of our ancestors who resisted colonial domination are watching. We must rise, cleanse our minds of dependency, and stand with dignity. The era of last minute surrender must end. The time for strategic, sovereign Ijaw political courage has arrived.

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Opinion

Leadership in Africa: Forging a New Era of Self-Reliance, Unity and Global Relevance (Pt. 3)

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By Tolulope A. Adegoke

“True leadership in Africa is not the pursuit of power, but the courage to serve — to turn the pain of yesterday into the promise of tomorrow, to bind broken hearts into one destiny, and to raise a continent where every son and daughter can stand tall, not by pulling others down, but by lifting one another higher.” – Tolulope A. Adegoke, PhD

Building upon the foundational principles and practical pathways discussed in Parts 1 and 2, this continuation explores the deeper implementation strategies, institutional reforms, cultural shifts, and long-term vision required to translate African leadership into tangible, sustainable transformation. It addresses the realities on the ground while offering forward-looking, actionable recommendations that can help Africa move from potential to performance on both regional and global stages.

Institutional Reforms as the Backbone of Transformative Leadership

Visionary leadership without strong institutions is like a beautiful dream without a foundation. Africa’s progress depends on building institutions that are resilient, transparent, and people-centred.

Leaders must prioritise civil service reform, judicial independence, and anti-corruption mechanisms that are not only punitive but preventive. For example, Rwanda’s use of performance contracts (imihigo) for public officials has created a culture of accountability and results. Similarly, Ghana’s strong electoral commission and relatively independent judiciary have helped sustain democratic stability. These models show that when institutions are strengthened, leadership becomes less about individual charisma and more about systemic effectiveness.

Regional institutions such as the African Union, ECOWAS, SADC, and the East African Community must also be reformed. They need greater financial autonomy, faster decision-making processes, and clearer enforcement mechanisms. The African Union’s current efforts to reform its Peace and Security Council and operationalise the African Standby Force are steps in the right direction, but they require consistent political will and adequate funding from member states.

Cultural and Mindset Transformation

Leadership that builds Africa must also transform mindsets. Many of the continent’s challenges are rooted in colonial-era thinking, dependency syndromes, and a culture of short-termism.

Progressive leaders should invest in cultural renewal programmes that celebrate African excellence, innovation, and resilience. This includes supporting the creative industries — Nollywood in Nigeria, Afrobeats music, and contemporary African literature — which are already projecting positive African narratives globally. Educational systems must move beyond rote learning to foster critical thinking, ethical reasoning, and entrepreneurial spirit.

Youth leadership development is particularly crucial. With over 60% of Africa’s population under the age of 25, the continent’s future depends on preparing young people not just for jobs, but for leadership. Initiatives like the African Union’s Youth Agenda and national youth service programmes should be expanded and made more impactful.

Economic Transformation and Self-Reliance in Practice

True self-reliance requires deliberate economic restructuring. Leaders must champion value addition in agriculture, mining, and natural resources. Instead of exporting raw cocoa, cotton, or crude oil, African countries should invest in processing facilities that create jobs and capture more value domestically.

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) offers a historic opportunity. When fully implemented, it can boost intra-African trade, reduce dependence on external markets, and create new industries. Leaders who actively remove non-tariff barriers, harmonise standards, and invest in cross-border infrastructure will be remembered as the architects of Africa’s economic renaissance.

Public-private partnerships (PPPs) should be strengthened, with clear frameworks that protect national interests while attracting responsible investment. Countries like Morocco and Ethiopia have shown how strategic industrial policies can attract foreign direct investment while building local capacity.

Global Relevance: Africa as a Solution Provider

Africa must stop seeing itself solely as a recipient of global solutions and begin positioning itself as a contributor. The continent’s vast renewable energy potential, youthful population, and rich biodiversity give it unique advantages in addressing global challenges such as climate change, food security, and digital innovation.

Leaders who understand this will invest in research and development, patent African innovations, and engage confidently in global forums. The success of African pharmaceutical companies during the COVID-19 pandemic and the growth of African tech unicorns demonstrate that the continent can compete and lead when given the right environment.

 

A Balanced and Hopeful Conclusion

Africa stands at a historic crossroads. The challenges — poverty, inequality, climate vulnerability, and governance gaps — are real and significant. Yet the opportunities — a youthful population, abundant natural resources, cultural richness, and growing regional integration — are even greater.

Leadership remains the decisive variable. When leaders rise above narrow interests to serve the collective good, Africa does not just survive — it thrives and offers the world new models of resilience, innovation, and inclusive growth.

The path forward requires a new covenant: between leaders and citizens, between nations and regions, and between Africa and the global community. This covenant must be rooted in trust, mutual accountability, and shared vision. With the right leadership — courageous, ethical, inclusive, and strategic — Africa can forge a new era of self-reliance, unity, and global relevance.

The question is not whether Africa can rise. The question is whether its leaders, supported by an awakened citizenry, will summon the will, wisdom, and courage to make that rise unstoppable. The world is watching, and history is waiting to record the choices made in this decisive decade.

Africa’s story is still being written. With visionary leadership, it can become one of triumph, dignity, and global excellence.

Dr. Tolulope A. Adegoke, AMBP-UN is a globally recognized scholar-practitioner and thought leader at the nexus of security, governance, and strategic leadership. His mission is dedicated to advancing ethical governance, strategic human capital development, resilient nation building, and global peace. He can be reached via: tolulopeadegoke01@gmail.comglobalstageimpacts@gmail.com

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Opinion

A Familiar Kind of Tragedy by Adeoye Inioluwa

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The recent attacks on school communities in Oyo and Borno states have once again forced the country into a familiar emotional cycle — shock, grief, statements, and questions that briefly dominate public attention before gradually fading into silence.
What makes this cycle more unsettling each time is not only the incident itself, but the growing sense that it no longer feels entirely unexpected.
No society is completely free of insecurity. That much is understood. But what often defines public confidence is not the absence of incidents; it is the clarity, consistency, and visibility of response over time.
People do not only want to hear that action will be taken. They want to understand what has changed since the last time similar words were spoken.
Schools are supposed to represent safety at its most basic level. They are meant to be spaces where children are temporarily removed from the uncertainties of the outside world, not exposed to them. So when violence reaches those spaces, it does more than disrupt learning — it disrupts trust.
In the immediate aftermath, responses are often swift in tone. Condemnation is expressed. Sympathy is extended. Assurances are made. These reactions are necessary, but the challenge lies in what follows after the statements are made.
Because for those directly affected, the consequences do not end when public attention moves on.
There is also a broader national concern that emerges in moments like this: the increasing difficulty of distinguishing isolated incidents from a pattern. When similar events recur across different locations and times, they begin to reshape how communities perceive safety itself.
At that point, the issue is no longer only about response, but about prevention — and more importantly, about whether prevention is visibly evolving in a way that matches the scale of concern.
Citizens are not only listening for reassurance. They are watching for evidence that lessons from previous incidents have been fully translated into action. This includes how vulnerable spaces are secured, how intelligence is applied, and how quickly gaps are identified before they are exploited again.
Without that visible progression, reassurance risks becoming routine, and routine reassurance gradually weakens public confidence.
There is also a quiet emotional cost that is rarely acknowledged. Each new incident does not erase the memory of the previous one; it adds to it. Over time, this accumulation creates a national fatigue — a troubling adaptation to repeated distress.
In such a climate, the most important responsibility is not only to respond after events, but to reduce the conditions that allow them to repeat.
Because ultimately, the measure of any serious response is not how firmly it is stated in moments of crisis, but how clearly it reshapes what happens next.
And if that shift is not visible, then the unanswered questions will continue. Not out of impatience, but out of necessity.

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