Opinion
Panorama: Why Atiku Abubakar Will Defeat Tinubu, Others in 2023
Published
2 years agoon
By
EricBy Sani Sa’idu Baba
My dear country men and women, I have good news for you; Atiku Abubakar is Nigeria’s President in waiting. It is worthy of note that the candidate of the ruling party and his minatory approach are dead on arrival. There is no doubt that the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar, is best suited to govern the country from 2023 owing to his knowledge of the economy and his ability to unite people from all parts of country. Yes, Atiku has the requisite expertise to draw the country out of the economic quagmire it has found itself. Nigeria needs a President who understands the economy and is an excellent talent hunter, knowing how to put round pegs in round holes, and not vice versa. These are the reasons behind my assertion.
Quality of the People in charge of the Atiku Presidential Campaign
If you are a social media follower of the Director of Strategic Communications of the Atiku Presidential Campaign Council, Aare Dr Dele Momodu, you would realize that personal capacity and integrity of the campaign team managers of Atiku Abubakar matter, and are by far not any match to those in all other political parties. Momodu has become a magnet that attracts people’s heart in support of the candidacy of Atiku Abubakar, especially among the young ones across the country since he hit the ground running in his capacity showcasing Atiku’s competency, capacity, readiness and his five point agenda to revolutionalise the country. This is coupled with the weight and integrity of the Director General of the campaign, Governor Aminu Waziri Tambuwal of Sokoto State, and many honorable men and women who are also connected. With people like Dele Momodu in the PDP Presidential campaign council, not only would the council achieve victory for the party in the coming general elections, but would help it move Nigeria to the Eldorado it desire.
The North versus South Dichotomy
This is where history will come to play a part. In 1979, Dr. Nnamdi Azikwe’s party Nigerian Peoples Party (NPP) had 2.8 million votes in the presidential election, while the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) led by Chief Awolowo scored 4.9 million votes. The National Party of Nigeria (NPN) led by Northern Presidential candidate, Alhaji Shehu Shagari won 5.6 million votes. What is the lesson here? If Chief Awolowo and Dr, Nnamdi Azikwe had worked together in the South, they would have polled 7.7 million votes and Alhaji Shehu Shagari would not have been elected president. To apply this to our present day reality, the Southern regions are not working together politically previously declared by Dele Momodu. Furthermore, any observer of Nigeria’s political atmosphere will confirm that Nigerians are eager to sack the failed APC. Perhaps the division amongst Southern regions and the North, especially North-West out of critical and strategic thinking. Not all Igbo from the South-East are OBIdients and not all Hausa/Fulani Northwest are for Kwankwaso including the usual political allies of Obi and Kwankwaso respectively. These categories of people understood that a vote for their man is tantamount to a vote for the APC. An average Northerner will tell you that Atiku Abubakar is the man of the moment, and are therefore fully and truly ATIKUlated.
Atiku and Wike’s Camp Rift, Not a Serious threat to PDP’s victory
As it is with any major happening in the nation’s political firmament, the unrest in the PDP that emanated largely from the selection of the Governor of Delta State Dr. Ifeanyi Arthur Okowa over Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State, is a general issue that exist across party lines and it’s not uncommon, and this wrangling is part of democracy. Besides, absolute peace usually exist in the third forces and other mushroom political parties because even their own card carrying members don’t believe they will win elections, perhaps at all levels. Therefore, Governors Wike of Rivers, Samuel Ortom of Benue, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of Enugu and Okezie Ikpeazu of Abia are all second term governors in desperate need of a successor from their own party and it is unlikely for them to destroy the party in the presidential election and expect to win subsequently. Similarly, Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State is seeking second term himself. Taken it all together, the feud between PDP candidate, Atiku Abubakar and this group is not a serious threat to his victory and perhaps reconciliation is possible at last.
Buhari’s Poor Performance
It is no longer news that President Muhammadu Buhari and APC’s approval rating has taken a plunge in the last seven years that he has been in office, which informs the belief by political pundits that a run against the party and whoever would emerge its presidential candidate in 2023 possess no political risk. This assertion is strengthened largely by the emergence of the former governor of Lagos State, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu as the party’s flag bearer, a development that further made Nigerians displeased with the APC. Indeed NOI Polls, the No 1 polling services for Nigeria has returned a damning verdict on President Buhari’s stewardship, with the results of its poll showing that over the last four years, the President’s job performance rating has taken a downward turn for the worse. In more specific terms, the average approval rating of the president in 2018 stands below average at 39.6 percent; with his past rating of May 2018 at 41 percent and even lower in 2022 recent rating. He did poorly in all areas of assessment. So if seven years of APC failure holds the truth for 2023, a well-grounded candidate like former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of PDP can confront the Tinubu of APC with the possibility of electoral good show.
Atiku’s Preparedness and Intimidating Track Record
There is no gainsaying the fact that Atiku Abubakar has been the most prepared Nigerian to steer the ship of state in the last decade. However he has not been able to actualize his ambition because of the disposition of some detractors who feel threatened by the rich credentials that he brings to the table. But this is understandable, because politics taint noble people. So it is with Atiku. After impacting our national life for four solid decades, his impeccable record speaks volume about his public spiritedness and his support for worthy causes. At an age when many still prattled and sought relevance, Atiku bestrode Nigeria like a quintessential colossus, dishing out goodwill, service and altruism. These are undeniable. From his days as a custom officer, through his attempt to fly the flag of the defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP) in 1993, Atiku has gone through the drudgery of grassroots politics to etch his name as Governor-Elect of Adamawa State in 1999 before he was later nominated as Vice President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria between 1999 and 2007. The question remains, if he was not good, how has he been able to stamp a seal of excellence everywhere he went all these years and even ranked the best vice president in our history? These are facts that majority of voters are talking about today.
Atiku’s Five (5) Point Agenda and His Covenant with Nigerians
It has never happened in the recent past that Nigerians desperately desire a ready-made candidate that has the experience and capacity to hit the ground running from day one, and here is Atiku Abubakar, who fits the context perfectly. How Nigerians adopt Atiku to fight the try by error candidates would continue to amaze everyone. Anyway, Atiku’s blueprint for Nigeria I believe is by far his strongest weapon. His rich manifesto addresses all the threats currently confronting the country. From unity, Education, Economy, security and devolution of resources agenda that will address pressing issues through job creation, health and infrastructure to poverty alleviation and power, no any presidential candidate amongst all in Nigeria come close to Atiku’s manifesto in terms of concept, creativity, know-how and readiness to deliver. The way he talks about how he is going to achieve them all, it rekindles hope in the hearts of Nigerians knowing fully that he can since he did it in his own private capacity. That has made Atiku by far more popular and more acceptable to the people than any politician seeking to be president in 2023. His contention is that there is a flaw in the country’s constitution which was why there is a recurring cry of marginalization from every section of the country. Atiku believes that no section of Nigeria can claim correctly that its people are better served by the current structure of our federation. He has since challenged those who against restructuring the country’s federal system as it currently stands, to show an example of countries that are functioning well with a structure such as Nigeria. Whatever one’s arguments are, restructuring will shape the way Nigerians will vote during the Nigeria’s next presidential election.
The Switch of APC to a Regional Party with the Exit of Buhari 2023
I expect the APC to save its energy, time and resources and not bother to campaign in the 2023 general elections because it has become evident the party cannot secure the statutory 25% of votes in most States of the country. However, APC will get it in South-West, a region where its presidential candidate hailed from. APC is no longer accepted in the North with expiration of President Buhari’s tenure in 2023. The fact is as it stands today, only PDP is a truly national political party, especially with Atiku/Okowa ticket balancing our triple identity (region, religion and tribe). The fact that Nigerians from all walks of life in Kano State, the political commercial nerve center of the North and national melting point, defied the rain in massive show of solidarity to the PDP and its Presidential flag bearer Atiku Abubakar is a red flag to the APC, and at the same time underscores people’s determination to break through all barriers and return the PDP to power in 2023.
My dear country men and women, may I implore you to participate in saving Nigeria by accepting the worthy covenant with our ready-made Atiku Abubakar? Atiku is Ready!
Sani Sa’idu Baba writes from Kano, and can be reached via drssbaba@yahoo.com
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By Prof Mike Ozekhome SAN, CON, OFR, LL.D.
“Freedom is never voluntarily given by the oppressor, it must be demanded by the oppressed” (Martin Luther King, Jnr). Justice Walter Onnoghen who was unfairly disgraced out of office presumably as a crook by former dictator President, General Muhammadu Buhari, has just demonstrated this apophthegum through three appeals, namely CA/A/375/2019; CA/A/37/SC/2019 and CA/373C/2019. He valiantly fought for his freedom through these three appeals against his April 18, 2019 outrageous conviction which was schemed by Buhari and his kitchen cabinet to humiliate Onnoghen out of the Bench so as to make CJN, his preferred candidate (Justice Tanko Mohammed), CJN (rtd.) on the eve of the 2019 presidential election. Buhari knew he had performed dismally and would be rejected at the polls by angry and hungry Nigerians. So he went Judge-shopping. The rest as they say is history. The legal saga of Justice Walter Onnoghen is not just the story of one man’s acquittal, but a larger commentary on the poor state of Nigeria’s judiciary and the ever-present tensions between political power wielders and judicial independence. It is a story fit for a Grammy Award movie. His acquittal on 4th November, 2024, by the Court of Appeal in Abuja, marked a significant chapter in Nigeria’s legal history, casting a powerful shadow of doubt and curious spotlight on the principles of separation of power, due process, the sanctity of judicial independence and the perils inherent in political intervention. The appeal that restored Justice Onnoghen’s hard-earned reputation and returned his assets to him is also a profound testament to the importance of procedural integrity and jurisdictional boundaries in any democratic society.
I had the opportunity in the nineties to appear before the brilliant Judex while he was a High Court Judge of the Cross River State Judiciary, Calabar. I know he was a man of integrity and character. During the infamous Onnoghen’s trial by ordeal, I made many interventions. In one, I said:
“A strong judiciary is one of the irreducible fundamental platforms for any meaningful constitutional democracy. If you terrorise, intimidate, harass and humiliate the judiciary, using strong hand and brute force, it is a stage set for bidding democracy farewell”- Mike Ozekhome, SAN (https://dailytrust.com/ozekhome-charges-judiciary-to-shut-down-courts-over-onnoghen/). (13th January, 2019).
In a world where the judiciary stands as the final arbiter of justice, Justice Onnoghen’s story is one of a victim who faced unprecedented tribulations, endured a long agonising path to redemption. He ultimately emerged victorious. The appeal process that culminated in his acquittal is a reminder that justice may sometimes be delayed, but it can never be forever denied.
HOW THE APPEAL COURT ACQUITED ONNOGHEN
The verdict by the Court of Appeal represented a turning point in a legal drama that had captivated Nigerians and raised profound questions about the nature and quality of justice in the country. On the 4th of November, 2024, a three-member panel led by Justice Abba Mohammed ruled in favour of the ex-CJN, Walter Onnoghen, acquitting him of the charges initially levied in 2019 by the Code of Conduct Tribunal (CCT) in 2019. This decision not only vacated the earlier conviction but also ordered the unfreezing of all his bank accounts, thus restoring his financial freedom that had been denied him since the controversial trial began.
I have been overwhelmingly vindicated in all my angst and ventilations against the victimhood suffered by Onnoghen. Hear me:
“The CJN can be removed from office either if he has been convicted or if under section 291 of the constitution, the Senate affirms a request by the President to remove him by two-third majority vote” – Prof. Mike Ozekhome, SAN (https://www.pulse.ng/news/politics/mike-ozekhome-reacts-to-allegations-against-cjn-onnoghen/zdx9del). (12th January, 2019).
The acquittal judgement was predicated on a legal principle central to the Nigerian jurisprudence which articulates around jurisdiction. The Court of Appeal asserted that the CCT had no authority in the first instance to try and convict Justice Onnoghen having not passed through the National Judicial Council (NJC). This oversight, the appellate court argued, rendered the entire proceedings null and void. This requirement had been emphasized in Nigerian case law with decisions such as FRN v. NGANJIWA (2022) LPELR-58066(SC) and OPENE v. NJC & ORS (2011) LPELR-4795(CA), which clearly emphasise that judicial officers must first be vetted by the NJC before facing any criminal trial by a tribunal or court. This process is designed to protect the judiciary and its judexes from strong-hand politicians and political interference, thus ensuring that judges are treated with the respect, dignity and due process that their offices richly deserve. I had angrily queried:
“…Our system of justice being Anglo-Saxon based, which is accusatorial, meaning that the innocence of a person is presumed. It is different from the criminal justice system of the French model which is inquisitorial, wherein the guilt of an accused person is presumed. This doctrine has been encapsulated in section 36 of the 1999 Constitution, as amended, that the person’s innocence is presumed until he has been proven guilty. Assuming for example that Senator Bukola Saraki had been forced to resign his office when charges were brought against him before the same Code of Conduct Tribunal almost three years ago, what would have happened and what would have been his fate when the Supreme Court eventually discharged and acquitted him of the charge, following judgements and earlier order of the Court of Appeal and the Code of Conduct Tribunal itself? If you ask me, I sense serious political undertones oozing from this so-called imminent arraignment of the noble CJN. Question, when did they discover the alleged offence for which they now want to charge him on Monday? Was it just yesterday, was it last week, two weeks or six months ago? The CJN has been in office now for well over one year, how come that this misconduct or whatever offence that he is being alleged, was not seen up to now? How come, that it is just less than 40 days to the 2019 Presidential election, when the CJN is going to play the major role in constituting the Presidential election petition tribunal, that he is being moved against? Who is afraid of the Judiciary? Who is afraid of Justice Onnoghen and his impartiality and straightforwardness? How come we are reducing governance in Nigeria to one of impunity, one of despotism and one of absolutism. Don’t this people know that the world is laughing at us? Did we not see how Dino Melaye was yanked out from police hospital and taken to DSS quarters when he had no business or case with the DSS and DSS had no case against him. Did they not see Dino Melaye, a serving Senator of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, sleeping in the open yesterday? Do they go on social media and do they watch international televisions? Do they know how the whole world is deriding us in this country? That governance has been reduced to mere witch-hunt, very opaque, very unaccountable, very un-transparent and very very fascist! Can’t they see that?”- Prof. Mike Ozekhome, SAN (https://www.pulse.ng/news/politics/mike-ozekhome-reacts-to-allegations-against-cjn-onnoghen/zdx9del). (12th January, 2019).
My intervention as far back as 2019 served as a reality-check, pointing out that removing a Chief Justice can never be a whimsical decision; it is bound by the checks and balances that keep our justice system watered. My then reference to “impunity, despotism, and absolutism” hit like a huge hammer, evoking the imagery of a judiciary under siege of political transaintionists. By drawing parallels with then Senators Saraki and Dino Melaye’s own public tribulations, I attempted to paint a vivid picture of a prostrate justice system afflicted by power jackbootism.
Justice Onnoghen’s acquittal is a clear victory for judicial integrity, independence and an affirmation that the judiciary cannot be used as a pawn on political chessboards. The ruling also reinforces the fact that procedural lapses, especially in matters bordering on citizens right and high-ranking judicial officers, are unacceptable and grossly violate the principle of fair trial. As the Bible counsels in Proverbs 31:9, “Speak up and judge fairly; defend the rights of the poor and needy.” This verse captures the essence of due process, emphasizing that justice must be dispensed with fairness and respect for established procedures. I did not mince words then in condemning the executive lawlessness unleashed on Onnoghen:
“It must be pointed out that this latest step by the CCT… appears to be teleguided by the dictatorial Executive, especially the presidency” – Prof. Mike Ozekhome, SAN (https://dailypost.ng/2019/02/13/ozekhome-gives-nine-reasons-cct-arrest-order-onnoghen-cannot-stand/). (14th February, 2019).
The ugly circumstances surrounding Justice Onnoghen’s initial trial and conviction by the CCT underscore the potential dangers when procedural norms are bypassed. My passionate critique of the dastardly role played by the Buhari-led administration from 2015 to 2023 as regards Onnoghen’s trial by ordeal revealed the high stakes which were at play. By overstepping the NJC, I had warned then that unchecked executive power could encroach upon the independence of the judiciary which will ultimately undermine the very foundation of democracy.
THE PRECEDENT OF JURISDICTION AND JUDICIAL INDEPENDENCE
Justice Walter Onnoghen’s acquittal by the Court of Appeal is not just a victory for one individual, but a landmark affirmation of a fundamental principle of law, that jurisdiction is the bedrock of any valid legal proceeding. Without proper jurisdiction, any judgement rendered is, as many legal scholars have agreed on, will merely be an exercise in futility. This principle is enshrined in our legal jurisprudence to protect the sanctity of judicial offices and prevent arbitrary persecution. The Court of Appeal’s decision to vacate Justice Walter Onnoghen’s conviction reaffirmed this core legal tenet, sending a clear message that the judiciary is not a toothless bulldog and tool to be wielded by the executive or any other arm of government.
“Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere” – Martin Luther King Jr. The Nigerian legal framework, supported by landmark cases such as FRN v. NGANJIWA (Supra) and OPENE v. NJC & ORS (Supra), outlines that the NJC must first investigate and make recommendations regarding any allegations against judicial officers before any trial can commence at the CCT. This process serves as a bulwark against arbitrary trials, ensuring that judges are not subjected to undue pressure or political intimidation. I had also then warned about the dangers posed whenever these procedural safeguards are disregarded: “The CCT was unrelenting: it discarded its earlier precedents; ignored court rulings barring it from trying Onnoghen. It was the case of the falcon not hearing the falconer”- Prof. Mike Ozekhome, SAN (https://www.thecable.ng/ozekhome-onnoghen-resigned-because-the-cabal-had-sealed-his-fate/). (6th April, 2019).
Thus, five years ago (2019), I was nothing short of prophetic. I had foreseen the critical blunders and overreaches that would compromise the integrity of the judiciary in the Onnoghen saga. My warnings were very clear then about the dangerous precedent that was being set in bypassing due process and using the judiciary as a tool for political manoeuvring. As events have now unfolded, my observations then have proven me to be a visionary critic who critiques (not criticises) a justice system that was then on the brink. I had cautioned against the erosion of judicial independence in the face of executive influence. I had given nine reasons why the CCT’s arrest order on and trial of Justice Onnoghen could not stand. See:
(https://dailypost.ng/2019/02/13/ozekhome-gives-nine-reasons-cct-arrest-order-onnoghen-cannot-stand/).
My list was not just a check-list of procedural irregularities; it was also an indictment of a system seemingly hijacked by political buccaneers. Each point landed like a blow, revealing layers of oversight that were by-passed; up to the requirement for humane treatment under the ACJA that was ignored. I meticulously built my case, demonstrating that Onnoghen’s trials were not just about one man, but about the sanctity of the judicial process itself. It was persecution, not prosecution.
My vivid metaphor of the then CJN being “mob-lynched,” painted a grotesque picture of a judiciary cornered by hidoues forces intent on humiliation rather than achieving justice.
Justice Onnoghen’s acquittal by the Court of Appeal thus serves as a reaffirmation of judicial independence, reminding all branches of government that the rule of law cannot be compromised for political expediency. As the Bible says in Psalm 82:3, “Defend the weak and the fatherless; uphold the cause of the poor and the oppressed.” These words resonate deeply in the context of Onnoghen’s trial, encapsulating the judiciary’s duty to protect the innocent from unwarranted persecution and uphold the principles of justice.
POLITICAL UNDERTONES AND THE QUEST FOR JUDICIAL AUTONOMY
Justice Walter Onnoghen’s journey from indictment to acquittal reflects a deeper narrative about the political undertones that permeated his trial. His suspension by then President Muhammadu Buhari which took place only weeks before the 2019 presidential election, had raised significant concerns about the timing and motivations behind the charges. Many saw it as an attempt to influence the judiciary ahead of a critical election, a sentiment I shared and eloquently captured in “Onnoghen… knew that his fate had been pre-determined by the cabal, signed, sealed and delivered”- Prof. Mike Ozekhome, SAN (https://www.thecable.ng/ozekhome-onnoghen-resigned-because-the-cabal-had-sealed-his-fate/). (6th April, 2019)
The timing of the charges, as well as the swiftness with which Onnoghen was brought to trial, laid validation to public perception that Justice Onnoghen was merely targeted for his position and influence within the judiciary. Like I put it then, “Many facts bear this simple deduction out. The petitioner, an NGO, actually committed the Freudian slip by anchoring its petition on ‘bearing in mind the imminence of the 2019 general elections’” – Prof. Mike Ozekhome, SAN (https://dailytrust.com/ozekhome-charges-judiciary-to-shut-down-courts-over-onnoghen/). (13th January, 2019).
The Bible, in Proverbs 21:15, declares, “When justice is done, it brings joy to the righteous but terror to evildoers.” The acquittal of Justice Onnoghen, in this light, is therefore not just a personal victory but a broader triumph for all who value justice and integrity.
Like I noted then, “Justice Onnoghen’s removal was also an attempt by the executive arm of government to have a firm control of the nation’s judiciary”- Prof. Mike Ozekhome, SAN (https://dailypost.ng/2019/02/13/ozekhome-gives-nine-reasons-cct-arrest-order-onnoghen-cannot-stand/). (13th February, 2019).
CONCLUSION
Ultimately, Justice Walter Onnoghen’s acquittal is a landmark victory for judicial independence and a testament to the enduring principles of justice and due process. His journey from indictment to acquittal serves as a potent reminder that the rule of law must remain inviolable, even in the face of political pressures.
Onnoghen’s case will remain a watershed moment in Nigeria’s legal history, a vivid reminder that the judiciary’s role is to safeguard the rule of law, protect citizens’ rights and ensure that democracy even when faced with formidable forces of political influence, triumphs. It should be able to skillfully navigate through the ever present interplay of centripetal and centrifugal forces.
As Nigeria continues to evolve as a work-in-progress, Justice Onnoghen’s exoneration stands as a powerful reminder to us all that, in the words of Proverbs 21:3, “To do what is right and just is more acceptable to the Lord than sacrifice.” Congratulations, Milord. Enjoy your hard won-back integrity, honour and dignity.
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Opinion
Masquerade of Excellence: Celebrating Prof Mike Ozekhome’s Remarkable Journey @ 67
Published
1 month agoon
October 14, 2024By
EricBy CDS Omon-Irabor Esq
Chief Prof. Dr. Mike A.A. Ozekhome SAN,
the only masquerade that dances in the farm without cutting a single reed of the yam tendrils.
The Gadfly is climbing the 67th rung on the ladder. From the hills of Agenebode down to the plains of the Iviukwe, the celestials, the principalities and the gods of Weppa and Wano Kingdoms are celebrating this colossus, who came in disguise as a little rough village boy; but very comely and handsome, his divine intelligence surpasses those of his peers.
Taking a sudden flight through primary and secondary schools casaded him into the land of Oduduwa. He anchored his life voyage at the ancestral home of the Yorubas, Ile-ife. Here his projenitors believed to have a temporary abode before sending the last born of the Ogisos Ile-ife (I ran and I became rich, Benin translation). Omonoyan (wrongly called Oromiyan) was sent to go to the land of Igodomigodo where today Chief Mike Ozekhome holds the title of Enobakhare of Benin Kingdom.
This great man had all his trappings, equipped himself and became a lawyer, taking abode in the Delphic Oracle (that is what we called the Chambers of Chief Gani Fawehim). There he became the Aristostle, tampering with the Apologia left at the eye of euroba.
He journeyed on, for no destiny, no chance, no faith, nor circumstance could hinder, control or circumvent the firm resolve of a determined soul in Chief Mike Agbedor Abu Ozekhome as epitomised or postulated.
The great learned Senior Advocate of the masses grudges on, defending the most vulnerable and giving voice to the voiceless and muscle to the powerless.
The Okporokpo of Oleh kingdom, Delta State; the Aimotekpe of Okpeland, the Agbamofin of Ijanikinland, Lagos; the Ohamadike1 of Obibi Ochasi, Imo State; the Ada Idaha of Efik land and the great Akpakpa Vighi Vighi of Edo Land, the land of my ancestors, I salute you for it is morning yet.
There is no space here,for my ink is running dry; but before I drop, I remember your words to me while I was in the dock of the Warri High Court on the 12th day of July, 2013, “Omon, you look worried; mind you, those who think that they can cover the shinning sun with their palms will soon find the heat unbearable”.
Those who stopped you from becoming our Governor in 2003 indirectly made you Governor of all Governors.
In all these odyssey you traversed, behind the dìm unknown standeth God, watching over you, His own.
Obokhian, amonghon, iyare iyare, mooooooh.
CDS Omon-Irabor Esq writes from the hill and the cave of Ebudinland
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Opinion
Mr. President: Affordable Fuel is Possible at Zero Subsidy
Published
1 month agoon
October 12, 2024By
EricBy Dr. Aliyu U. Tilde
Yesterday evening, I listened attentively to a panel of experts and stakeholders on the BBC program Ra’ayi Riga, anchored by Umaima Sani Abdulmumin. The program ended with a big doubt in my mind regarding a matter purported to be a provision of OPEC and crucial to the price of petrol in Nigeria.
Tyranny
I could not fathom how particularly the representatives of NNPC and IPMAN stressed that Nigerians will be at the mercy of two variables: the international market and the price of the US Dollar in Nigeria. They said OPEC agreement compels member countries to sell allocated domestic crude at international rate even if refined locally. One of them even said the Iran-Israel conflict can cause domestic price of petrol in Nigeria to rise.
So we should expect higher fuel prices anytime the rate of the dollar appreciates in Nigeria and also when, for any reason, there is a rise in the cost of crude in the international market. It is the rule, according to them. Our fate, they claim, is sealed, regardless of our OPEC membership and Dangote refinery. Nigerians will no longer have a stable fuel price.
Trust me, in Nigeria, the equation will be simultaneous. At any given moment, a reason will be found to use either or both parameters to increase pump price. The target of government is to extract more revenue from citizens while the businessmen in Dangote, Major Marketers, NNPCL and IPMAN continue to feed their greed for endless profit with our blood.
One would wonder why OPEC would be so oppressive in inflicting such tyranny on the citizens of its members. Senator Ndume, who was in the panel, said if he cannot understand why, how would they expect a commoner sitting under the tree to do so?
The truth
The truth is that there is no provision like that in OPEC agreements. In fact, the very idea of domestic crude quota arose in realization that citizens of member countries may need to enjoy cheaper oil than the international market price. That is why those citizens have been enjoying cheaper fuel for the past five decades in different countries. Many still do. Why not Nigerians?
If you ask ChatGPT whether OPEC agreement compels member countries to sell crude for domestic consumption at international market price only, this is the answer you get:
“OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) does not directly compel member countries to sell crude oil for domestic consumption at international market prices. OPEC’s primary role is to coordinate and unify petroleum policies among member countries to stabilize oil markets and secure a steady supply of oil.
“However, OPEC’s production quotas, agreements on output levels, and policies can indirectly influence domestic oil pricing. In practice, many OPEC members choose to sell crude oil domestically at subsidized rates or prices lower than the international market. This decision is made at the discretion of individual member countries, often as part of national energy policies aimed at supporting domestic economies and industries. Nonetheless, these policies may vary from one member country to another depending on domestic priorities and economic strategies.
“There is no formal OPEC rule that requires domestic sales to match international prices, though it can be influenced by international agreements and market pressures.”
The Truth
The truth is that the President and Minister of Petroleum can sell our 445,000 barrels a day to Dangote at even N50,000/barrel after taking into consideration the cost of extraction and OPEC will not raise any eyebrow. Dangote can charge the cost of refining, add his profit and sell to NNPCL and IPMAN at, say, N300/litre. On their part the marketers will add their cost of transportation, storage, profit, etc., and sell it to Nigerians at N400/litre. And—boom—we all will be happy.
It is entirely the discretion of the President and his government. So whoever wants to sell our locally produced fuel by that simultaneous equation is on his own. There is no OPEC in the equation.
The Squeeze
Also, among those who would fight against Nigerians enjoying affordable fuel rates are the IMF, World Bank and the West generally. They want the government to squeeze us the more such that we can service our debts and collect more loans from the Shylock. The age long philosophy is: our poverty, their wealth; our pain, their joy.
Added to these are local liberal economists who believe in high taxation, claiming that the blood money will be used to develop our infrastructure, health, education, etc. It is just the same old bunkum selling since 1986 at the debut of Naira devaluation while our infrastructure, hospitals and schools continue to deteriorate in rebuttal of that thesis.
A Call
I call on the President to consider the low income status of our citizen. Only affordable fuel price will hold together our social fabric, ensure our prosperity and guarantee our security. It is zero subsidy because we are not buying it from anyone. It is our oil.
The President must keep in mind that the IMF and oil magnates are not his partners in 2027. He is on his own. They will be there to outlive him and work with the next President. Let this sink into his psyche. Tam!
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