By Oluseun A. Mabogunje (Swanston House 72’ Set)

(It is not in the stars to hold our destiny, but in ourselves) The Chairman, Government College Ibadan Old Boys Association, Lagos Branch, Members of the Executive Committee, Ancient, Medieval and Modern Old Boys of our great old school I greet you all and thank you for agreeing to listen to me talk and therefore I won’t waste your time dwelling on too much pleasantries but move straight to the topic of the day.

I think the Chairman, who is also my classmate, has deliberately put me in a very difficult position by asking me to lead the discussion of a very topical subject matter which is certainly very contentious but possibly also trailblazing. It is even more difficult for me because I don’t think I have more information about Amotekun than most of us here today. What I know about this subject is what I have read in the papers, social media and heard on radio and television. I tried to do some research to see if I could find out more official statements on the purpose, thinking, formation and modus operandi proposed by the originators of Operation Amotekun beyond what we read in the papers. Not surprisingly I didn’t get much and if there is more, then those behind Amotekun are still keeping it very close to their chest as maybe they should at this point in time. I guess the reason why the Chairman got me involved in this is because he knows that I used to work in one of the security agencies in the country and maybe because of my experience in security I may have some insights and understanding of some issues as concerns national security. But I want to state very clearly that whatever I say here today are my personal thoughts and opinion. In sharing my thoughts and opinion on this very weighty and potentially ground breaking venture, my appeal would be for us all to objectively and dispassionately examine the subject matter and all its ramifications, devoid of sentiments, prejudices and unproven conspiracy theories. We must be prepared to scientifically interrogate some of our assumptions and myths about the nature of our country Nigeria and what Operation Amotekun can do and cannot do for South West Nigeria at this point in time when we are fast approaching the status of a fragile state. Fragility in this case refers to weak or failing structures and to situations where the social contract between the government and the governed is broken due to the state’s incapacity or unwillingness to deal with its basic functions, meet its obligations and responsibilities regarding service delivery, management of resources, rule of law, equitable access to power, security and safety of the populace and protection and promotion of citizen’s rights and freedom.

For the purpose of this discussion, I have divided this paper into two parts. The first part I titled, “How did we get here?” Which is just a summary of the build-up of some of the factors that led the governors of the south west to come together and decide to set up a regional security network code named “Operation Amotekun”. The second part of the paper will focus on the challenges and prospects that has been birthed by this decision which has led to the successful inauguration of Operation Amotekun on the 9th of January 2020. Again, I would like to remind the audience that what I am doing here is expressing my opinion and thoughts which I hope will engender a robust discussion where we can agree to disagree intelligently and without rancour.

So, how did we get here? I want to tell a small true story, a personal experience that made me know we were going to get here one day if certain critical and measurable steps were not taken when they ought to have been taken. Sometimes in 1992 I read a report that I still remember very vividly up till today because it triggered a fear for our country that has not left me up till today. The words of the report hit me very hard and I began to pray that our governments would heed the recommendations of that report with the urgency it deserves. To paraphrase that report it goes thus: “It has been observed that there is a growing number of young men between the ages of 9 and 21 years that can be found idling in the city centres of many of the major cities of the north. These young men are uneducated, unskilled and unschooled in any productive activity. They have been poorly socialised and can be easily instigated for mayhem and other unwholesome activities. This phenomenon should therefore be seen as a matter of national security as the devil is known to find work for idle hands. Recommendations. Government should immediately begin to invest in low skill, mass employment opportunities that can quickly train and absorb these teeming youths in gainful employment. Such opportunities include mass agriculture, solid mineral development, industrialization and major public works like railways, roads, etc. These are opportunities that do not require too much education and training and will be designed to be labour intensive. End of the report.

Since 1992, I have been hoping to see the implementation of these recommendations on a massive scale and with the urgency and seriousness they deserve. To date this has not happened to any appreciable level. Rather, the population of uneducated or poorly educated young Nigerians has continued to increase at an alarming rate and has spread all over Nigeria in varying degrees. So we have the militants in the South-South region, the area boys and omo-onile’s in the south west, the Bakassi boys in the south east and so many groups and gangs of uneducated, unskilled, idle, hungry, angry young men and women roaming all over Nigeria, watching and seeing the mismanagement of their future by their government and the complacent and decadent life style of their elites as they hop from one party to the other spraying money and consuming litres of champagne to earn them the record of being the highest consumers of champagne in the world and at the same time the world’s poverty capital. While the number of factories, farmlands, schools and other employment generating institutions continue to go southwards our churches and mosques increase in number daily. All of us here today passed through Government College Ibadan and we know the quality of education we received both in academics and character building. Has that quality been improved upon or is it worse than when we left the school? We all know the answers to these questions and if we remove our heads from the sands, connect the dots and follow the trajectory of my 1992 story should we be surprised about where we are today? It didn’t start yesterday. It didn’t start when Buhari came into power. It didn’t even start in 1999 when we resumed our democracy after many years of military rule. We are where we are today because of over 50 years of poor governance and failure to plan for the future. Because the haves have focussed on only themselves and their immediate family without a care in the world for the have-nots who have continued to multiply in poverty, suffering and smiling. The smiling was bound to come to an end one day when the suffering begins to manifest in anger, frustration and the type of hopelessness that leads to irrational and often violent actions.

To make the situation even worse is the fact that we have largely remained unconcerned about the goings on in the Maghreb and Sahel regions of Africa. Libya, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, Sudan, Somalia and the Central African Republic. These countries have been in turmoil for the past 10 years or more. Most are fragile or failing states with weak governments and bands of heavily armed men roaming around in the large ungoverned spaces of North, West and Central Africa. Our borders are extremely porous and poorly manned, particularly our extensive northern borders, such that the movement of goods, people and animals is difficult to control. Movement of small arms and light weaponry is a major trade in this region with Nigeria probably the biggest market. As far back as 2005 under President Obasanjo, regional summits were sponsored by Nigeria to find solutions to stem the influx of arms into the country. As with many things done by our government words are often more than action and good initiatives are regularly poorly implemented and quickly made unsustainable often due to poor planning, incompetence and of course corruption. Between 2008 and 2011 under President Yaradua, the volume of small arms and weapons recovered from the Niger Delta militants before, during and after the amnesty program is said by some people to rival what was used to fight the Nigerian civil war. This can be said to be an indicator of the effectiveness of our maritime security along our extensive coastline and our capacity to deal with threats such as smuggling and piracy. Add to this again the increasing use of drugs and hard substances by our teeming and disenfranchised youths, children of both the rich and the poor and the picture gets even more desperate. There are also insinuations from some quarters that some foreign powers are sponsoring some of the hostile activities against the Nigerian state for their own agenda but this remains unconfirmed. There is much more to say about this situation, but to cut the matter short the resulting scenario of the picture that I am trying to paint is Boko Haram, ISWAP (Islamic State West African Province), Ethno-religious conflicts, Kidnappings, Cultism, Armed Robbery, Banditry, Piracy, Cattle Rustlings, Ritual killings, Thuggery, Yahoo-Yahoo boys and cybercrime, Area boys, Gangsterism, Secessionists, Ethnic Militias, Drug Abuse, Human Trafficking and high levels of prostitution.

Still more bad news as I ask the question, what is the capacity and capability of the Nigerian state as presently structured to deal with the clear and present danger facing us? I believe some statistics about Nigeria and educated estimates conjured by me will help to make my point.

• Population – 180 million conservatively

• Land Mass – 923,763 Km2

• Boundary Length – 4,900 Km

• Coast Line – 853 Km

• Staff Strength of Nigerian Police – 370,000 • Staff Strength of Nigerian Army – 156,000

• Staff Strength of Nigerian Navy – 20,000 Estimate • Staff Strength of Nigerian Airforce – 20,000 Estimate

• Staff Strength of the Nigerian Customs – 20,000 Estimate

• Staff Strength of Nigerian Immigration Service – 20,000 Estimate

• Staff Strength of National Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC) – 30,000 Estimate

• Staff Strength of National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA) – 12,000 Estimate

• Staff Strength of Department of State Services (DSS) – 15,000 Estimate

• Number of Holding Facilities (Prisons) in Nigeria – 240

There are many more important data such as number of police stations, military barracks, military assets, border posts, holding capacity of prisons, etc. that can help complete the picture but I can assure you the picture is quite dismal no matter what government wants to say to the contrary. But these are just numbers which clearly shows the manpower and asset inadequacies. What about actual human capacity? How well resourced are our security agencies? What kind of training is provided for them to carry out their arduous duties? Are they well compensated for the type of work they do? Are they given the proper orientation and support to do their jobs well? Is the current security architecture fit for purpose? To explain further, National Security Architecture includes management, decision-making and oversight structures and institutions as well as national policies, strategies and plans. Many agencies and institutions contribute to national security management, so coordination of decision-making is important. The national security architecture is vital for ensuring security priorities accurately reflects citizen’s need not institutional interests.

At this point I want to quickly differentiate between National Security and Human Security. National security is the requirement to maintain the sovereignty and survival of the state through the use of economic power, diplomacy, intelligence gathering, power projection and political power. Security threats involve not only the conventional enemies such as other nation-states but also non-state actors such as terrorists, drug cartels, multi-national corporations and non-government organisations. Threats could also include natural disasters and severe environmental damage. Human security on the other hand is commonly understood as prioritising the security of people, especially their safety, welfare and well-being rather than that of the state. It gives primacy to human beings and their complex social and economic interactions. This distinction should not in any way make us undermine the importance of both National and Human security. Both are very important and must receive equal attention by responsible governments. The problem is that most authoritarian or totalitarian states often place national security above human security. Though Nigeria is neither of the above today, unfortunately the orientation of our security agencies remains a vestige of our colonial and military past where the colonial masters, state or regime are not very concerned with human security but in regime protection. A prime example of this orientation is how the Nigerian military disempowered the Nigerian police force and other civilian security agencies in order to eliminate their perceived threat to their hold on power. Ironically, during the same period, the military systematically weakened their own capacity and capabilities through coups and counter coups that led to the early deaths and retirements of many brilliant well-trained military officers still in their prime. The involvement of the military in politics was not only a major disservice to the nation but also to themselves as military discipline and professionalism was traded on the altar of power and filthy lucre. Unfortunately for us again our political class have conveniently adopted the same orientation of the military where the interest of those in power far outstrips the interest of the people they were voted in to serve and I don’t care whether it is PDP, APC, APGA or whatever, their orientation remain the same and the security agencies have had no choice but to play along as we all know that who pays the piper dictates the tune. It is speculated that at least 50,000 police men out of their 370,000 total staff strength are deployed to guard our political masters and their friends while 320,000 are left to guard the rest of us.

So, gentlemen to my mind this is where we are today. There is clear and present danger from a myriad of threats that were sown many years ago which we largely ignored and even watered and on the other hand, the capacity and capability of the state today to respond to these threats quickly and effectively is to say the least very suspect. And, of course not only the security agencies are challenged. Almost all our institutions in the federal, states of local governments have been weakened and become cesspools of corruption, mediocrity, incompetence and greed. Can we boast about our civil service, our educational, health and traditional institutions? Even the private sector is far from optimal. If the ebola or coronavirus enter this country today and we are not as lucky as we were the last time ebola came knocking how well do we think the state can respond effectively to this threat? Add to this the fact that our economy is seriously challenged and we no longer have the kind of money we used to throw around at every little problem which led us to believe we were very rich and will remain so for ever. And again, it is not only about President Buhari. Certainly, his performance and leadership style has been very disappointing and has definitely worsened an already precarious situation. His nepotistic appointments and insistence on populating the leadership of 13 out of the 16 security and defense agencies with people from the northern states and of the same religion has been extremely divisive, exclusive and contrary to the letter and spirit of the federal character principle as enshrined in Section 14 (3) of the 1999 constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. This more than anything to my mind has impacted negatively on the confidence that most southerners have in the sincerity of his government to protect the region and has led many to believe rightly or wrongly that the President has a different agenda for the people of the region other than what he professes. One often wonders what is actually discussed in the National Security Council meetings where there is an absence of southerners present to speak for the interest of the south. This is most definitely a very wrong signal and counter-productive to the unity of our country and ethno-religious harmony.

But, to be clear, these existential threats that are already upon us is not only against the north or the east or west, it is threatening the entire geographical space called Nigeria whether we are part of it or not. Yes, today, the north is the epicentre and main theatre of violent crimes but the rest of the country has its own share in varying degrees and cannot be insulated from the fallout of the northern situation and ensuing crisis. Just as the failed states of the Maghreb had serious impact on the peace and security of northern Nigeria, I assure you that the threatening collapse of Northern Nigeria will any which way have serious impact on the survival of the south and the consequences would be very dire for us all whether we remain a part of Nigeria or not. Please let us be wise and look towards facing these challenges that are already upon us united rather than divided. Finger pointing, blame gaming, stereotyping, profiling, broad generalizations, fake news and hate speeches at best allow us to vent our frustrations but these are just distractions that will not affect or reduce the gravity of the situation but rather exacerbate it.

Now to the second part of my paper if I have not already bored you and this is about the Challenges and Prospects of Operation Amotekun. According to Mr. Seye Oyeleye, the Director-General of the DAWN Commission (Development Agenda for Western Nigeria) said to be one of the initiators of the Amotekun idea, “Amotekun is not against the Fulanis, it is not against the Igbo, it is not against the Ijaw and it is not against anyone, except the criminal. Its primary duty is community policing, protecting lives and property of everyone that lives in this geographical space”. And what is community policing? It is a philosophy that promotes organisational strategies that support the systematic use of partnerships and problem-solving techniques to proactively address the immediate conditions that give rise to public safety issues such as crime, social disorder and fear of crime. The primary purpose for its inception was to have police engaging with communities to build strong relationships between its members and law enforcement. In today’s modern era this has evolved to incorporating social media and/or community engagement systems to share relevant local information with residents. In most places of the world, community policing is a strategy and initiative of the police and the police officers engaged for community policing “belong” to the community, they know the community, and they understand how their community works and “who is who” in relation to services and operations. The case of Amotekun is different. First off, it is not an initiative of the police. Secondly, as the name implies, it is a regional based security network. This I must say to the best of my knowledge is quite novel and introduces a few complexities to the equation, which I hope over time will be resolved in a way and manner that it will be able to achieve its purpose without further complicating the existing poorly articulated and poorly coordinated national security architecture.

Furthermore, I make bold to say our current national security architecture is very deficient because coordination is weak and there are very few policies guiding it, thereby resulting in most of our security agencies and institutions working in silos with conspicuous interagency rivalries. Policies are very important in the design of the security architecture as it gives direction to all agencies of government (not just security agencies) as to their roles and responsibilities in security matters and crime prevention. I know for sure that we currently don’t have any National policy on crime prevention, community policing and neighbourhood policing. We have a National Counter-Terrorism Strategy that was launched in April 2014 by President Goodluck Jonathan but I am not sure it has been adopted and put into effect. In the world today, particularly after the 9/11 attacks, the need for collaboration and cooperation between security agencies became mandatory. No one single agency can handle the type of threats that we face today. Information sharing, centralised data and technical resources and joint operations need to be promoted and encouraged. Unfortunately, there is no evidence that our security agencies are today working as collaboratively as they should. There is so much mutual suspicion amongst the agencies as they all struggle for pre-eminence and bigger budgets. I won’t say more about this but I mention it because, Amotekun cannot be expected to work in isolation and must therefore be able to fit into the troubled national security architecture. If we don’t get the fit right it could lead to conflict, ineffectiveness and inefficient use of resources thus defeating the purpose for which it was set up leaving the residents maybe worse off than they are today. It is noteworthy that it is only after all the fanfare of the inauguration of Amotekun that the legal framework is just about to start at the individual state legislature.

In considering the legal framework it is my hope that the following issues will be addressed and properly debated with wisdom and understanding:

• What is the modus operandi of Amotekun? – Intelligence gathering, armed/unarmed patrol duties, undercover operations, crime prevention, crime detection and investigation, powers of arrest, powers of prosecution??

• Rules of engagement with hostile forces such as terrorists, kidnappers, bandits, armed robbers, etc. – Will Amotekun be restricted to just being a first responder with limited role in response and intervention or will it have a Special Forces Operation Arm to engage with the hostile forces?

• The command and control structure – Regional and/or state based, Chain of Command?

• The funding arrangement – State by state or common purse? – Security is very expensive

• Interstate relationship – Rules of engagement, cross border issues, etc

• Interregional relationship – Rules of engagement, cross boundary operations, intelligence gathering, etc

• Interagency relationship – Police, DSS, Military, Prisons, Customs, Immigration, NDLEA, etc

• Management of interagency conflicts and resolution mechanisms

• Subordination of Amotekun to the Police under the Federal Government’s community policing framework?? How does this work out when there are conflicting interests?

• Power to carry arms – What type of arms? If no arms then what?

• Relationship with the judiciary and the Office of the Director of Public Prosecution

• Setting up of offices, stations and posts in urban and rural areas

• What type of technology and infrastructural support will be required – Communication, armament, mobility, technical aids, etc

• Relationship with the community – Neighbourhood watch, community engagement strategy, security requires the participation of all members of the community and need to be organised, etc

• Recruitment policies – officers to be recruited from and for the community?

• Training, Capacity Building and Orientation, – To avoid replication of the existing police situation

• Salaries, Welfare and Compensations – Remember if you pay peanuts you will get monkeys

• Issues of sustainability and institutionalization of Amotekun beyond the current political actors

• Implication of Amotekun with regards to State Police, Restructuring and True Federalism

• Management of Political Interference and Abuse of Power

So, old boys and gentlemen, for me at this point I would say there are more questions than answers on the issue of the operational effectiveness of Operation Amotekun but it is my sincere hope that these issues will be quickly resolved so that Amotekun can swing into action to arrest the rapidly deteriorating security situation for our dear country and especially the south west region where most of us reside. We must keep at the back of our minds the demographics of Nigeria with a very youthful population. Surely, the young do not think like the old. There are definitely generation gap issues. The old should be careful about transferring their prejudices and biases to the young and extending the vicious cycle of distrust, mutual suspicions and hate. I make bold to say that the problem of Nigeria is not our ethno-religious divide much as many would like to believe. Our biggest problems are (1) Our leadership culture, (2) the greed and lack of conscience of our political class, (3) the apathy and self-indulgence of the elite and (4) the docility and long-suffering nature of the masses. This is a topic for another day.

On a final note, I must say that what excites me most about Operation Amotekun is not so much about its potential to wholesomely tackle the prevailing security threats but its propitiousness at this point in time. Propitious because it has the potential to force this country to have a conversation that we should have had long ago. I am sure that all of us here today will agree that Nigeria is not working. It is not working because we do not presently have a constitution of the people, by the people and for the people. We had one before that was the product of years of conversations and conferences that worked much better than what we have today. For Nigeria to have any hope of surviving as a nation and achieving its full potential, I believe very strongly that Nigeria must be restructured along the lines of fiscal federalism and decentralization of power to the states or regions as it were. To date it appears the powers that be are resisting any change to the existing order. But they can only resist for so long. Nothing can stop an idea whose time has come. I have a gut feeling that Amotekun is the first loud salvo in a series of events that could force all the various interest groups, ethnic nationalities and other stakeholders in the Nigerian project to the negotiating table from positions of strength for the purpose of having a frank, no holds barred, honest discussion with no No go areas in order for us to decide collectively how we want to live and work together in a just and peaceful nation that we can hand over to our children. If we miss this opportunity to have this discussion peacefully, then I fear for the future of this country. We must remember that No one will save us but ourselves. No one can and no one may. We ourselves must walk the path.

Thank you for your attention