Federal and state governments have been urged not to relax the current measures put in place to prevent the further spread of the Coronavirus Pandemic.
Making the passionate appeal in a statement released in Lagos, Dr Barth Ufoegbunam, Medical Director, Gracevalley Medical Centre, Okota, Isolo noted that rather than relax it, there is a need to increase the tempo.
According to Dr Barth who is also
Anchor, WAP TV Health Matta, a TV talk show, the current death to cases ratio is not cheering at all.
He wrote “In epidemiology, the proportion of people who die from a specific disease among all persons diagnosed with the disease over a specified period of time is referred to as CASE FATALITY RATE OR RATIO (CFR). CASE FATALITY RATE (CFR) is not the same as MORTALITY RATE.
“Mortality rate is another measure of death for a given population.
It estimates the risk of dying of a certain disease, hence the two measures provide different information
“At the moment Nigeria has a Case Fatality Rate, CFR of 3.5% going by the current COVID-19 demographics in the country.*
This implies, that out of every 100 confirmed coronavirus cases, between 3 and 4 individuals will die.Therefore 10,000 confirmed cases (God forbid!) could cause between 300 and 400 deaths. And here it becomes very glaring the 3.5% CFR is actually very high.*
” In an epidemic or pandemic, Case Fatality Rates (CFR) are not constant, they can vary between populations and over time too, meaning the rates could differ from one country to another as can be seen below;
*It can be used as a measurement tool not just for the severity of a specific disease in a particular population but by extension the assessment of such a country’s healthcare system.*
It can equally be used to periodically monitor or evaluate the level of progress made as a result of instituted interventions in the battle against a disease (predicting disease course or outcome) in a particular community or territory.
“In the whole of Europe, Germany at the moment has the lowest CFR of 3.1% far lower than even that of Nigeria despite the thousands of people (143,724) that have been affected there as well as their current death toll which currently stands at 4,538 as of yesterday.*
*Italy’s CFR of 13.2% at the moment is the second worst CFR in Europe.*
*Spain’s CFR is currently 10.6%*
*UK has the worst CFR in the whole of Europe which is currently at about 13.5%.*
” America at almost the peak of the pandemic in that country currently has a CFR of about 5.2% much better than most of the European nations despite having over 700,000 infected persons and a death toll of over 39,000.*
NB. Source of the statistics is: https://www.wordometer.info
In summary Nigeria with a current CFR of 3.5% higher than that of Germany can be seen as a peep into what we may face in the coming weeks to months.
Of a truth Nigeria needs to ramp up her capacity in both testing as well as the management of cases.
We are still far from reaching the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria.
Fellow Nigerians, we no longer need to be chased around, coerced or forced by the law enforcement agencies to obey the government directives to the letters. No, not any more.
Please stay at home, make use of facemasks/clothes if you must leave your house for any reason whatsoever and maintain social/ physical distancing alongside other measures of prevention.
“The fight against COVID-19, the unseen enemy has just begun.