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Nigeria’s Total Debt’s N87.37trn in Q3 2023, DMO Confirms

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The Director General of Debt Management Office (DMO), Ms. Patience Oniha, has confirmed Nigeria’s debt stock stands at N87.37 trillion as at September 30, 2023.

Oniha, who disclosed this during the interactive session held at the instance of House Committee on Appropriations chaired by Hon. Abubakar Bichi, however, noted that while justifying the rationale behind the borrowing spree, she informed the Parliament that projects implemented by Federal government during the three previous recessions were funded through borrowing.

She said: “Let me speak a bit about public debt as you requested in the letter inviting us.

 “The first point is that we have run budget deficit for many years for which the DMO has been raising funds locally and internationally to support the budget.

“The point I would like to make is that as the level of borrowings increases you have to service them so debt services increase also.

“Again, we run budget deficits because we have projects and programmes in the budget that the government wants to run. If we go back from 2015 and 2016, we know we have been through about two or three recessions. So, a lot of that bringing the economy out of recession was funded from borrowing.

“The first one was through the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan and the last one was during COVID. So, debt has increased and so has debt service increased.

“We usually publish the debt data every quarter. So, the most recent data we have in terms of debt stock is as at June 30th of 2023. The figure for public debt is N87.37 trillion. That is made of of external and domestic debt and it is for the Federal Government and the 36 States and FCT.

“Let me quickly add that out of the 87 trillion, about 90 percent belongs to the Federal Government. I believe because of the role the Federal Government plays, we account for the largest share.

“But we report everything because that is best practice. If you compare that figure to last year’s December, it was N46 trillion.

“So, it has grown sharply because we have borrowed…you can say in six months but also because we added the Ways and Means advances to that number. It is public. It was approved.

“The DMO’s role is to manage that debt and make sure it is sustainable and that there is no default because borrowing is not a bad thing but when you borrow you use it well.

“Debt has been growing largely from new borrowings. You see the MTEF for instance that you have approved, it has borrowings in each of the years of N8.7, N10.2 and N11.58 trillion just to buttress the point that as you increase the funds the debt stock grows.

“So, it also also growing because we have issued Promissory Notes and again like I said, Ways and Means advances. We usually like to say that debt stock relative to our GDP is not the issue.

“That has grown from 23 percent in March to about 40 percent in June. The same way the debt stock grew.

“But we need to do, to focus on debt service revenue which is very high. That is why I said the discussions about revenue, we cannot stop talking about them enough.

“So, apart from trying to generate as much revenue as we should, what else should we be doing? We are advocates for a number of initiatives being taken. Should be privatized if those projects can be better managed. You can attract capital. Do the private-public partnership so not everything is on the budget. Because when you put everything on the budget, you cannot get a deficit for which you need to borrow.

“We should strongly support the Fiscal Reform and Tax Policy Committee, we really need to get that working to change the story of us.

“For this year 2023 the DMO was to provide about N8.8 trillion, N7 trillion of that is domestic; meaning we borrow it here on naira. And then there is N1.7 trillion that ordinarily in normal times, we would have issued Euro bonds or from other sources.

“So, out of the domestic of N7 trillion as we speak, we have raised the full amount. So, you can say we have raised a significant amount to fund this budget.

“If the international markets had been covered and we were investing in counties with similar ratings like Nigeria by now we would also have issued a Euro bond.

“We have been extremely supportive of funding the budget and the operations of government,” Ms. Oniha noted.

While speaking on funding of some of the proposed infrastructural projects, she disclosed that the present administration is to ensure direct support with the SUKUK.

According to her, “This year some of that 7 trillion we issued it by way of SUKUK and you will soon begin to see the roads across the FCT.

“Having spoken to what is in the 2023 of which we have raised 7 trillion out of the 8.8 trillion. So we know that in 2024, from the MTEF there is N8.749 trillion.

“So, the levels of borrowing are still high but I think as the MTEF is a rolling document, as the picture looks better on revenues maybe the numbers would be lower.”

Speaking earlier, Chairman, House Committee on Appropriations, Hon. Abubakar Bichi explained that the interactive session with heads of MDAs was aimed at addressing strategies for the rising inflation, reducing the burden of Nigeria’s debt profile, sectoral budgetary allocations, and the dynamics of budget releases.

“Others are economic diversification strategies, revenue generation forecasts, and any useful information that will facilitate the enactment of the bill and effective implementation of the Appropriations Act, 2024.

“Amidst concerns to address the infrastructural gap in the country, eliminate poverty, and generally achieve the 8-Point Renewed Hope Agenda, there is a need to ensure that all loose ends to revenue are tied, as this can have a gross impact on the government’s ability to implement the 2024 Appropriation Bill when passed.

“While the revised MTEF and FSP showed that revenue-generating efforts by the present administration are already yielding fruit, more needs to be done to ensure that government-owned enterprises optimize their revenue-generating potential.

“In light of the above, this interaction is designed to engage relevant stakeholders to provide insight on the perspective of the budget and enable the Committee to play its coordinating role in ensuing allocative efficiency in the 2024 appropriation process,” Hon. Bichi noted.

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Economy

FG Dismisses Dangote Petroleum As Inferior, Says Refinery Not Yet Licenced, Completed

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By Eric Elezuo

A Federal Government of Nigeria petroleum regulatory agency, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, (NMDPRA), has dismissed petroleum products from the Dangote Refinery as inferior, in the guise of those f4om Watersmith and Aradel, making a case for superiority of imported ones.

The revelation was made by the Chief Executive Officer of NMDPRA, Mr. Farouk Ahmed, while responding to questions from a section of the press, a video of which is trending online, adding that the refinery is only 45% completed, and yet to be licenced for operation by the Nigerian government.

Earlier, the Vice President of Dangote Industries Limited, Devakumar Edwin, had alleged that most fuel products imported into Nigeria are substandard, blaming International Oil Companies (IOCs) of frustrating Dangote’s quest for production.

In the short video, which lasted a little over a minute, Mr. Ahmed debunked theories attached to the functionality of the Dangote Refinery, saying it does not have the capacity to ‘feed’ the nation of its petroleum needs, as it stands. He however, refuted arguments that some elements within the oil and gas sector were trying to scuttle the Dangote Refinery.

A transcript of the NMDPRA’s boss short response is as follows:

“It about concerns of supply of petroleum products acros the nationwide, and the claim that we are trying to scuttle Dangote. That is not so. Dangote Refinery is still in the pre-commissioning stage. It has not been licenced yet. We haven’t licenced them yet. I think they are about 45 per cent completed, or completion rather.

“We cannot rely on one refinery to feed the nation, because Dangote is requesting that we suspend or stop imports, especially of AGO and DPK, and direct all marketers to his refinery. That is not good for the nation in terms of energy security, and it is not good for the market because of the monopoly.

“Dangote Refinery, as well as some modular refineries like Watersmith Refinery and Aradel Refinery, are producing between 650 and 1,200 PPM. Therefore, in terms of quality, their products are inferior to imported ones,” he stated.

It will be recalled that only last Sunday, the President, Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote, while hosting senior journalists from across various media concerns, revealed that the Nigeria National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) owns only 7.2% of stakes in the refinery, and not 20 percent as widely circulated. He also revealed that the refinery is set to begin fuel supply in August 2024.

Many stakeholders and respondents have alleged that there’s no love lost between the government of the day and the Dangote Group, and that explains the hiccup situation surrounding the takeoff the $19 billion refinery.

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Economy

NNPC Reacts to Owning Only 7.2% Stake in Dangote Refinery

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The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited has explained why it holds only a 7.2% equity in the $19 billion Dangote Refinery, instead of the widely speculated 20%. 

A statement released on Sunday by Femi Soneye, the Chief Corporate Communications Officer of NNPCL, addressed the company’s recent decision regarding its investment in the Dangote Refinery.  

Soneye said that the decision to reduce their investment was carefully considered and communicated several months ago to Aliko Dangote. 

Dangote mentioned to newsmen on Sunday that NNPC no longer holds a 20% stake in the refinery.  

He explained that this change occurred because NNPCL failed to pay the balance of their share, which was due in June. 

Reacting, NNPC said:  

“NNPC Limited periodically assesses its investment portfolio to ensure alignment with the company’s strategic goals.

“The decision to cap its equity participation at the paid-up sum was made and communicated to Dangote Refinery several months ago,” NNPC said.

Nairametrics

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Economy

IMF in Latest Forecast, Downgrades Nigeria’s Earlier Growth Projection

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised downward Nigeria’s economic growth projection by 0.2 percentage point amid weaker than expected activity in the first quarter of the year.

The Nigeria’s growth forecast was revised downward by 0.2 from the earlier projection in April.

This in turn has led to a downward revision of economic growth for sub-Saharan Africa.

The IMF announced this development in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) update released on Tuesday.

The report read: “The forecast for growth in sub-Saharan Africa is revised downward, mainly as a result of a 0.2 percentage point downward revision to the growth outlook in Nigeria amid weaker than expected activity in the first quarter of this year.”

The Bretton Wood institution raised alarm that some near-term risks have gained prominence from the previous outlook.

It added: “Overall, risks to the outlook remain balanced, as in the April 2024 WEO, but some near-term risks have gained prominence. These include upside risks to inflation that stem from a lack of progress on services disinflation and price pressures emanating from renewed trade or geopolitical tensions.

“Risks of persistent inflation in the services sector are tied to both wage and price setting, given that labor accounts for a high share of the costs in that sector. Higher nominal wage growth, which in some cases reflects the catch-up of real wages, if accompanied by weak productivity, could make it difficult for firms to moderate price increases, especially when profit margins are already squeezed.

“This could lead to further stickiness in wage and price inflation. The escalation of trade tensions could further raise near-term risks to inflation by increasing the cost of imported goods along the supply chain.

“Bumpiness along the remaining disinflation path could destabilize the return to price stability if short-term expectations spike upward as a result of disappointing inflation data.”

IMF equally held its global growth expectations for 2024.

The Fund expects the world economy to grow 3.2 percent this year, unchanged from its April forecast.

“Global activity and world trade firmed up at the turn of the year, with trade spurred by strong exports from Asia, particularly in the technology sector,” it stated.

For 2025, it expects global growth of 3.3 percent.

The Washington-based lender also warned that the prospect of interest rates staying elevated longer in the face of escalating trade tensions and increased policy uncertainty.

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