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The Oracle: Quo Vadis Interim Government? (Pt. 3)

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By Mike Ozekhome

INTRODUCTION

In last week’s episode, we wondered whether Interim govts are coups in disguise; discussed the Nigeria experience with interim Governments; asked ‘What is an interim government?; and examined ‘Factors that necessitate interim Governments’.

In today’s edition, we conclude our discussion of ‘Factors that necessitate interim governments; then look at types of interim Governments and conclude with an assessment of how well interim Governments have worked in our climes such as Afghanistan, Chad and Syria.

FACTORS THAT MAY NECESSITATE INTERIM GOVERNMENTS.

Interim governments do not just spring forth from the blues in normal circumstances. No. The factors and causes would have been there for long – even if dormant and latent. But it is only the ant that hears the whispers of the sand; just as it is only the worm that knows what is buried in the earth. Vigilant Nigerians had seen these signs long ago. Aare Babalola is one of them. I am one of them. My daily write-ups and frequent television appearances wholly attest to this.

The factors which foster the emergence of interim governments include regime collapse, negotiated agreement, special election or international intervention. They may arise at a national or sub national level; and can have a myriad of compositions: national, international or mixed; one party or power-sharing, civilian, military or hybrid. Their mandates range from providing or restoring basic state services, to special tasks such as the preparation of a new Constitution or the introduction of economic reforms. It is in the preparation of a new autochthonous and People-driven Constitution that Babalola’s dissertation is situate.

Examples of such circumstances, as identified by the Institute for Integrated Transitions include an existing regime dealing with crises – such as severe economic problems, a fracture within the ruling elite, or an invigorated opposition which may transform itself into an Interim government to stave off its demise or provide more political space to work towards longer-term recovery or resolution (e.g Spain 1975-1976; Indonesia 1998-1998). Additionally, an international intervention may produce an Interim International Government as a practical means to restart governance after war or dictatorship or a stalled political process (e.g UN Transitional Administration in East Timor 1999-2002). Furthermore, an existing regime and the opposition may reach a peace deal or political settlement, establishing an Interim Government for a specified period (e.g El Salvador 1992-1994; and Nepal 2006-2008).

TYPES OF INTERIM GOVERNMENTS

There is the type of Interim Government where an organized power or force overthrows a sitting government and takes over the leadership of the state. This is different from a coup d’etat strictu sensu, because in this case, the regime taking over is only doing so to manage power temporarily, promising to hand over power, properly and as the law of the land recognizes. Wikipedia.org referred to this kind of interim government as “revolutionary provisional government”. An instance of such interim government would be the case in Chad where when the Head of State died, his son took over government, as against the provisions of the law of the land where the power to lead the state was supposed to devolve on the speaker of the National Assembly. However, Mahamat Idriss Deby in a bid to take over power had to, through the Army, dissolve the government and the National Assembly to ensure that the speaker did not become the Head of State. He however promised to hand over power according to provisions of the law after 18 months, thus making his government an interim/provisional government.

There is the second type of interim government, where there is set up, a new regime of leadership. However, the previous regime still retains the true power. This was the case with Nigeria when General Ibrahim Badamosi Babangida, said that he will “step aside”, not even resign. He did appoint an Interim National Government to usher in a proper government in accordance with the Constitution of Nigeria. General Babangida however retained the Secretary of his government to be the Secretary of the Interim government and the actions of the Interim Government were generally seen to be largely dependent on and not against the interest of General Babangida. Wikipedia.org named this type of Interim government, “Incumbent Provisional Government”.

There is the third type of interim government, where obedience and legitimacy in the state are shared between the incumbent interim regime and a regime trying to take over power. This is the case in Syria where the Interim Government is sharing power with external forces from Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Turkey and Qatar. Wikipedia.org referred to this type of Interim government as “Power Sharing Provisional Government”.

Finally, there is the type of Interim government where the power belongs to and is solely managed by an international body, the international community or an external state. Such was the case with the United States in 1776 during the American Revolutionary War when the Continental Congress, a convention of delegates from 13 British colonies on the east coast of North America served as its interim government until it was replaced in 1789 by the United States Congress. (See https: //en. wikipedia. org/ wiki/ Provisional _ government). Wikipedia.org named this type of interim government as “International Provisional Government”.

HOW WELL HAS INTERIM GOVERNMENTS WORKED IN OTHER CLIMATES?

As at date, South Sudan, Libya, Sudan, Burkina Faso, and Chad in Africa; Afghanistan, Myanmar, Syria, and Yemen in Asia; and  Belarus in Europe, are the countries currently under an interim government regime.

Taking the samples of Afghanistan, Chad and Syria, let us analyse how interim governments have performed.

AFGHANISTAN

Matthew Saul in an article, “International Law and the Legitimacy of Interim Governments”, (see page 14; International Law and the Legitimacy of Interim Governments by Matthew Saul, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2715703) – pointed out the issues with the interim government of Afghanistan. He stated thus, “…certainly, the lack of security in Afghanistan has been a major hindrance in the development of a productive public sphere and the government has been keen to justify some of its constraining activity on the security situation. Consider, for instance, the decree that all news agencies ‘refrain from covering incidents of “terrorist activities or movements” between 6 a.m. and 8 p.m. on Election Day,’ a ban enforced by National Directorate of Security (NDS) officials. … This suggests that it might have been a measure that has been motivated by the government trying to sustain its own authority, by reducing knowledge of events that bring into question the credibility of the election process.”

Matthew makes the very disturbing insinuation that interim governments are in an unending struggle to assert and justify their legitimacy. Yes, indeed. Afterall, the fall of a dried leaf is a warning to the green one.

CHAD

As published by Al Jazeera on 20th April, 2021. (See https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/20/chads-military-announces-new-interim-government-after-deby-death); and on 13th October, 2022; and (https: //www. africanews. Com /2022 /10/13/chad-new-interimprime-minister-vows-freedoms rights/), in Chad, even as it is today, the government which came into force in the guise of an interim regime to hand over to a Republican government after 18 months, counting from April 2021, is still in force till date. Now the question is, who now has the right, authority, and requisite power at this material time to bring this government to book? Should Chadians not regret ever having this interim regime in the first place? Which rat will now bell the cat? That is the question.

SYRIA

Middleeasteye.net.(Seehttps://www.middleeasteye.net/features/syria-interim-government-waiting) has painted a gloomy picture of the state of Syria under an interim government; just as has Al-monitor.com, they both show a country in serious crisis.

Though the situation in Syria (being a warring country and one with different power blocks exercising real power across divided parts of the country), is to be expected, it is still the case that its Interim Government has not only suffered major oppositions that bring to jeopardy its control of the state, but is also in search of its own legitimacy – the very foundation of a government. A cockroach has never been adjudged innocent in the presence of fowls.

CONCLUSION

The above scenarios have shown that IG is no longer in vogue. But, a final warning for those “politricians” messing up our hard-earned democracy: they must now move swiftly, deliberately, to save this pseudo democracy we are operating and turn it into full-blown democracy. This is because, if a snake chooses to crawl sluggishly like a snail, it will only succeed in making itself food for the hawk.

NOW THIS

It will however be unrealistic in the present circumstances to expect “politricians” (the greatest beneficiaries of the last farcical polls) to commit collective class suicide by acquiescing to that idea. The IG idea will garner little or no traction among this most critical base of those who will lose out. It is not only the political class that will lose out, but also the electorate. As the ENDSARS riots of 2020 clearly showed, Nigeria’s youths have become increasingly restive, enlightened, and audacious in the fight for their rights. Their righteous indignation is palpable. This once-upon-a-time supposed structureless and amorphous segment of the society has become the rejected stone that has ironically formed the cornerstone of our democracy.

The days of taking the youths for granted by corrupt and unpopular governments are clearly over. An IG which they perceive as antithetical to their interests and aspirations might be the needed signal to spark off another round of mass protests, in a way and manner that may dovetail into ponderous chaos and anarchy. Who knows where that might lead us to? The way forward is to overhaul our abused electoral jurisprudence and change the warped mind-set of our desperate “politricians”. The stubborn fly that refuses to hear the voice of its mother usually accompanies the casket into the grave.

The lessons are quite clear to us all. Our elders tell us that if you tell a man a proverb and proceed to interpret it to him, then the dowry paid on his mother’s head becomes a waste.  A word is enough for the wise. A stitch in time saves nine. (The end).

FUN TIMES

“Wait ooooo if indomie na fast food, then wetin garri come be?”

 THOUGHT FOR WEEK

“The government is us; we are the government, you and I”. (Theodore Roosevelt).

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Opinion

Masquerade of Excellence: Celebrating Prof Mike Ozekhome’s Remarkable Journey @ 67

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By CDS Omon-Irabor Esq

Chief Prof. Dr. Mike A.A. Ozekhome SAN,
the only masquerade that dances in the farm without cutting a single reed of the yam tendrils.

The Gadfly is climbing the 67th rung on the ladder. From the hills of Agenebode down to the plains of the Iviukwe, the celestials, the principalities and the gods of Weppa and Wano Kingdoms are celebrating this colossus, who came in disguise as a little rough village boy; but very comely and handsome, his divine intelligence surpasses those of his peers.

Taking a sudden flight through primary and secondary schools casaded him into the land of Oduduwa. He anchored his life voyage at the ancestral home of the Yorubas, Ile-ife. Here his projenitors believed to have a temporary abode before sending the last born of the Ogisos Ile-ife (I ran and I became rich, Benin translation). Omonoyan (wrongly called Oromiyan) was sent to go to the land of Igodomigodo where today Chief Mike Ozekhome holds the title of Enobakhare of Benin Kingdom.

This great man had all his trappings, equipped himself and became a lawyer, taking abode in the Delphic Oracle (that is what we called the Chambers of Chief Gani Fawehim). There he became the Aristostle, tampering with the Apologia left at the eye of euroba.

He journeyed on, for no destiny, no chance, no faith, nor circumstance could hinder, control or circumvent the firm resolve of a determined soul in Chief Mike Agbedor Abu Ozekhome as epitomised or postulated.

The great learned Senior Advocate of the masses grudges on, defending the most vulnerable and giving voice to the voiceless and muscle to the powerless.

The Okporokpo of Oleh kingdom, Delta State; the Aimotekpe of Okpeland, the Agbamofin of Ijanikinland, Lagos; the Ohamadike1 of Obibi Ochasi, Imo State; the Ada Idaha of Efik land and the great Akpakpa Vighi Vighi of Edo Land, the land of my ancestors, I salute you for it is morning yet.

There is no space here,for my ink is running dry; but before I drop, I remember your words to me while I was in the dock of the Warri High Court on the 12th day of July, 2013, “Omon, you look worried; mind you, those who think that they can cover the shinning sun with their palms will soon find the heat unbearable”.

Those who stopped you from becoming our Governor in 2003 indirectly made you Governor of all Governors.

In all these odyssey you traversed, behind the dìm unknown standeth God, watching over you, His own.

Obokhian, amonghon, iyare iyare, mooooooh.

CDS Omon-Irabor Esq writes from the hill and the cave of Ebudinland

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Opinion

Mr. President: Affordable Fuel is Possible at Zero Subsidy

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By Dr. Aliyu U. Tilde

Yesterday evening, I listened attentively to a panel of experts and stakeholders on the BBC program Ra’ayi Riga, anchored by Umaima Sani Abdulmumin. The program ended with a big doubt in my mind regarding a matter purported to be a provision of OPEC and crucial to the price of petrol in Nigeria.

Tyranny

I could not fathom how particularly the representatives of NNPC and IPMAN stressed that Nigerians will be at the mercy of two variables: the international market and the price of the US Dollar in Nigeria. They said OPEC agreement compels member countries to sell allocated domestic crude at international rate even if refined locally. One of them even said the Iran-Israel conflict can cause domestic price of petrol in Nigeria to rise.

So we should expect higher fuel prices anytime the rate of the dollar appreciates in Nigeria and also when, for any reason, there is a rise in the cost of crude in the international market. It is the rule, according to them. Our fate, they claim, is sealed, regardless of our OPEC membership and Dangote refinery. Nigerians will no longer have a stable fuel price.

Trust me, in Nigeria, the equation will be simultaneous. At any given moment, a reason will be found to use either or both parameters to increase pump price. The target of government is to extract more revenue from citizens while the businessmen in Dangote, Major Marketers, NNPCL and IPMAN continue to feed their greed for endless profit with our blood.

One would wonder why OPEC would be so oppressive in inflicting such tyranny on the citizens of its members. Senator Ndume, who was in the panel, said if he cannot understand why, how would they expect a commoner sitting under the tree to do so?

The truth

The truth is that there is no provision like that in OPEC agreements. In fact, the very idea of domestic crude quota arose in realization that citizens of member countries may need to enjoy cheaper oil than the international market price. That is why those citizens have been enjoying cheaper fuel for the past five decades in different countries. Many still do. Why not Nigerians?

If you ask ChatGPT whether OPEC agreement compels member countries to sell crude for domestic consumption at international market price only, this is the answer you get:

“OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) does not directly compel member countries to sell crude oil for domestic consumption at international market prices. OPEC’s primary role is to coordinate and unify petroleum policies among member countries to stabilize oil markets and secure a steady supply of oil.

“However, OPEC’s production quotas, agreements on output levels, and policies can indirectly influence domestic oil pricing. In practice, many OPEC members choose to sell crude oil domestically at subsidized rates or prices lower than the international market. This decision is made at the discretion of individual member countries, often as part of national energy policies aimed at supporting domestic economies and industries. Nonetheless, these policies may vary from one member country to another depending on domestic priorities and economic strategies.

“There is no formal OPEC rule that requires domestic sales to match international prices, though it can be influenced by international agreements and market pressures.”

The Truth

The truth is that the President and Minister of Petroleum can sell our 445,000 barrels a day to Dangote at even N50,000/barrel after taking into consideration the cost of extraction and OPEC will not raise any eyebrow. Dangote can charge the cost of refining, add his profit and sell to NNPCL and IPMAN at, say, N300/litre. On their part the marketers will add their cost of transportation, storage, profit, etc., and sell it to Nigerians at N400/litre. And—boom—we all will be happy.

It is entirely the discretion of the President and his government. So whoever wants to sell our locally produced fuel by that simultaneous equation is on his own. There is no OPEC in the equation.

The Squeeze

Also, among those who would fight against Nigerians enjoying affordable fuel rates are the IMF, World Bank and the West generally. They want the government to squeeze us the more such that we can service our debts and collect more loans from the Shylock. The age long philosophy is: our poverty, their wealth; our pain, their joy.

Added to these are local liberal economists who believe in high taxation, claiming that the blood money will be used to develop our infrastructure, health, education, etc. It is just the same old bunkum selling since 1986 at the debut of Naira devaluation while our infrastructure, hospitals and schools continue to deteriorate in rebuttal of that thesis.

A Call

I call on the President to consider the low income status of our citizen. Only affordable fuel price will hold together our social fabric, ensure our prosperity and guarantee our security. It is zero subsidy because we are not buying it from anyone. It is our oil.

The President must keep in mind that the IMF and oil magnates are not his partners in 2027. He is on his own. They will be there to outlive him and work with the next President. Let this sink into his psyche. Tam!

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Opinion

Happy 64th Independence Day!

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By Oyinkansola Badejo-Okusanya

From July 2011 to May 2015, it was my honour to serve the government and people of Lagos State as General Counsel to His Excellency, Mr. Babatunde Raji Fashola, SAN CON, the Governor of Lagos State. As one of my tasks, I had the honour of being the Governor’s speechwriter, and early this morning, as the clock chimed midnight, ushering in yet another October 1, I found myself reflecting on how far we have come as a nation. “Does our progress reflect our age?”, I asked myself. I really don’t know. My thoughts then turned to 10 years ago and I remembered the Governor’s 54th Independence Day speech, the 1st draft of which I was privileged to pen. The Governor’s words on October 1, 2014, ring as true today as they did then and I thought it was worth sharing excerpts from his speech. Happy reading!

“…Today, October 1, 2014, we are once again celebrating the anniversary of our independence from British colonial rule. Today marks 54 years since Nigeria became an independent sovereign nation, following the germination of a seed that had been sown seven years earlier, when in 1953, Anthony Eromosele Enahoro introduced a private member’s bill demanding self-government. When the British “Union Jack” flag was lowered for the last time and the green-white-green Nigerian flag was hoisted in its stead, the crowd went wild with jubilation, filled with high expectations of a greater tomorrow.

We can only imagine the exultant joy felt by our first Prime Minister. Abubakar Tafawa Balewa, when he mounted the podium on October 1, 1960. In his first Independence Day Speech he said:-

“This is a wonderful day, and it is all the more wonderful because we have awaited it with increasing impatience, compelled to watch one country after another overtaking us… when we had so nearly reached our goal.”

Indeed he mirrored the views of millions of Nigerians and echoed their thoughts. Independence Day soon became easily the most significant day in our national life, accorded a pride of place that was difficult to surpass. Independence day became synonymous with sights of the President and the State Governors in open-top vehicles inspecting Guards of Honour, of beautiful parades, exciting fireworks and National Day Award ceremonies. October 1 also became the day on which political batons changed, and elected officials handed over to their successors. A day for inspiring speeches and sober reflection on our growth as a nation.

As a school boy, I remember struggling hard to get selected to march for my school in the National Day Parade, the endless rehearsals, and the keen anticipation of waiting to see if I would be picked. There was no prize given and none was expected. It was enough that your school had participated.

“Left, Right, Left, Right, Eeeyes Right!” And on the sidelines, children cheering us on with their own rhymes – “dem dey look una, make yanga, dem dey look una, make yanga, Left Right, Left Right!

Filled with excitement, we would add more ‘yanga’, trying hard, but not quite suceeding, to match the synchronisation of the armed forces. After it all, bursting with pride, those of us fortunate enough to have been selected to march for our school would milk our success for weeks afterwards, wearing our school uniform with pride, basking in the recognition as we went to and from school in public transportation and displaying a sense of superiority over our “less fortunate” schoolmates. Such was the depth of our civic pride.

Today, sadly, the excitement has waned. October 1 appears to have now become a hollow ritual and regrettably, no more than just another work and school-free day. The flame of our national pride seems to flicker. This is not how it should be.

What is the importance of a day like this? What does it mean to you? What should it mean to you? All over the world, Independence Day anniversaries are celebrated with great fanfare, splendour, respect for the nation and a deep sense of patriotism.bln some countries, festivities leading up to Independence Day start up to three weeks earlier. Some hold Independence Day beauty pageants; some re-enact their independence, others play the National Anthem on the dot of midnight on all radio and TV stations. All put country before self, at least for that day. We should not be any different.

In that historic Independence Day speech, Prime Minister Tafawa Balewa also said:

“Words cannot adequately express my joy and pride at being the Nigerian citizen privileged to accept from Her Royal Highness, these Constitutional Instruments which are the symbols of Nigeria’s independence. It is a unique privilege, which I shall remember forever, and it gives me strength and courage as I dedicate my life to the service of our country.”

Noble words indeed, and the words upon which the foundation of our nation was built. It seems to me that there is no better time to rekindle the flame of Nigeria’s promise than now. We should reflect on Prime Minister Tafawa Balewa’s words and re-dedicate ourselves to the service of Nigeria. In other words, we ought to see October 1 as a day to rekindle our national pride.

Let us patriotically reaffirm in our hearts that, Christian or Muslim, we are one nation under God; that North or South, we are one indivisible people; that whatever our political affiliations, we are all Nigerians, and that what binds us together far outweighs what little divides us.

We will yet attain those great lofty heights we sing so gustily about in the second stanza of our National Anthem. And I pray it will happen in my lifetime.

So help us God.”

Happy 64th Indepencence Day anniversary, dear colleagues. Please spare a prayer for Nigeria on her 64th birthday post independence. May God help us to build a nation where no man is oppressed so that with peace and plenty, Nigeria may be blessed. Amen.

Oyinkansola Badejo-Okusanya, FCIArb,
was General Counsel to the Governor of
Lagos State from July 2011 to May 2015.

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