By Dr. Sani Sa’idu Baba
It is deeply disappointing if not troubling to watch a former governor like Donald Duke accuse Atiku Abubakar of contesting for the presidency “since 1992” without identifying a single provision of the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria that such ambition violates. Donald Duke was once widely regarded as one of the most intelligent and forward-thinking leaders of his generation, which makes it even more puzzling to understand what must have come over him to suddenly align with those throwing tantrums at others who are by far more competent, experienced, and eligible than themselves. While I acknowledge that Duke has recently moved to the ADC, the party that Atiku belongs to, Nigerians should not be distracted by his kind of rhetoric.
As former presidential candidate and ADC chieftain Chief Dele Momodu has repeatedly stated, “everyone is afraid of Atiku Abubakar,” particularly as the 2027 presidential election approaches. That fear, according to Momodu, explains the ongoing campaign of calumny against him. Donald Duke’s remarks therefore cannot be separated from this wider effort to diminish a man widely seen as the most formidable opposition figure in Nigeria today.
However, the issue of Donald Duke is not the central purpose of my message today. It is only incidental. The real purpose is to share what should be considered good news for Nigerians, the growing perception among ordinary citizens and the conversations happening daily at junctions, gatherings, markets, campuses, mosques, churches, and in the nooks and crannies of the country. The truth is that Nigerians are largely unbothered by the APC’s one-party state ambition. They are not impressed by forced defections or elite political gymnastics. What occupies their minds instead is the unrelenting presence of opposition, sustained hope, and the quiet but powerful confidence inspired by what has now become known as the “Atiku Effect”.
In my own opinion, which aligns with the thinking of many discerning Nigerians, no one in either the opposition or the ruling camps today appears healthier physically, mentally, socially and politically than Atiku Abubakar. Health is not determined by propaganda or ageism, but by function, resilience, and capacity. As we were taught in medical school, “healthspan, not lifespan, defines vitality,” and “physiological resilience is age-independent.” These principles make it clear that fitness, clarity of thought, stamina, cognitive and physiological reserve matter far more than the number of years lived. By every observable measure, Atiku remains fitter and more grounded than many who are younger but visibly exhausted by power.
It is no longer news that Nigeria is being pushed toward a one-party state through the coercion of opposition governors into the ruling APC. What is increasingly clear, however, is that this strategy reflects anxiety rather than strength. Nigerians understand that governors do not vote on behalf of the people, and defections do not automatically translate into electoral victory. This same script was played before, and history has shown that elite alignment cannot override popular sentiment. Just as it happened in 2015, decamping governors cannot save a sitting president when the people have already reached a conclusion.
This is where the Atiku Effect becomes decisive. Atiku Abubakar represents continuity of opposition, courage in the face of intimidation, and the refusal to surrender democratic space. His consistency reassures Nigerians that democracy is still alive and that power can still be questioned. This is precisely why Dele Momodu’s assertion that “everyone is afraid of Atiku Abubakar” resonates so strongly across the country. It is not fear of noise or recklessness, but fear of discipline, experience, and endurance.
Across Nigeria today, the ruling party is increasingly treated as the most unserious political party in the history of Nigeria, not because it lacks power, but because it lacks credibility. Nigerians know that hunger does not disappear because governors defect, inflation does not bow to propaganda, and hardship does not respond to political coercion. What they see instead is a widening gap between political theatrics and lived reality. In that gap stands Atiku Abubakar, a constant reminder that an alternative voice still exists and that the idea of a one-party state cannot survive where hope remains alive.
Let me say this unapologetically: the one-party project being pursued by the ruling party is dead on arrival. It is dead because Nigerians are politically conscious. It is dead because votes do not move with defections. And above all, it is dead because Atiku Abubakar remains standing, indefatigable, resilient, and central to the national conversation. As long as he continues to challenge bad governance and embody opposition, democracy in Nigeria will continue to breathe. And that, more than anything else, explains why so many are desperately trying and failing to stop him because Atiku Abubakar is a phenomenon and a force that cannot be stopped in 2027…
Dr. Sani Sa’idu Baba writes from Kano, and can be reached via drssbaba@yahoo.com
