Voice of Emancipation: President Tinubu is Playing a Long Game

By Kayode Emola

In my last week’s article, I wrote about the upcoming Osun State election and President Tinubu’s strategy for election victory in 2027. For a master strategist like Tinubu who has won countless elections even when the odds were against him, one would expect him to throw his weight mightily behind Oyebamiji for the sake of his political party.

However, doing that in this election will be President Tinubu revealing his hand before his ultimate price, which is his second term in the 2027 General elections. Though Oyebamiji lost the Osun State gubernatorial election, there are so many ways Tinubu could compensate him with a political appointment if he wanted one.

That said, for President Tinubu to hold back on any direct intervention in last week’s Osun State election shows that Tinubu is playing the long game. For someone playing a long game, the last thing you want to do is show your opponent your weaknesses.

The president is not desperate for his party to be successful at the Osun State gubernatorial election; rather, he is more interested in the success of his party at the 2027 general elections. Therefore, going all out now when there is a big prize to be won in 2027 would have been counter-productive for him and his party.

By restraining himself in this Osun State election, the president has disarmed a lot of his political opponents who would expect a free and fair election next year. In the eyes of President Tinubu, there is nothing like free and fair. All that matters is positive results at the polls, and he would stop at nothing to achieve the results he wants.

Take, for instance, when then-President Olusegun Obasanjo tricked the entire Yoruba people to vote for his Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in 2003. The entire Alliance for Democracy (AD) governors of Yorubaland lost their seats to the PDP candidates except President Tinubu. It was at that time that President Tinubu started playing the long game.

Though age is no longer on his side, President Tinubu is fearless when it comes to going all out for what he wants. If anything, what President Tinubu desperately wants is a second shot at the presidency in 2027. Anything short of that for him would mean his entire lifework is a failure.

Given his antecedents and mastery of the political landscape in Nigeria, the wise thing for the opposition parties to do in 2027 is to coalesce around one political candidate for the 2027 presidential election. This would give Nigerians the much-needed change they are desperate for.

However, if the opposition parties still stand under their individual banners and riding their high horses, then they won’t blame Nigerians when President Tinubu emerges victorious in 2027. For all its worth, they would be mere spectators in the game they desperately thought they were equal participants.

For all intents and purposes, Atiku and Peter Obi have no business contesting this election. If truly, they are both representing their political blocks. For Atiku, he knows there is an unwritten agreement between Southern and Northern Nigeria to rotate the presidency. His ambition to run for the presidency again in what seems like an eternity is nothing but personal aggrandisement.

The same goes for Peter Obi, who has not considered his Igbo kinsmen and their collective bargaining power, and how he can leverage it. He is more concerned about his Obedient movement and how they can help him win the presidency.

To be clear, President Tinubu waited for 16 years before attempting to contest the presidential election. He supported other candidates even though he knew they had little or no chance at the presidency. When he did eventually contest, it was more like a jackpot for him.

Therefore, if Atiku and Peter Obi think that their chances of winning the presidential election are by contesting every election available, then it shows that they can’t read the room. For Peter Obi, he doesn’t even have any power base in any region of Nigeria, that’s including his Southeastern region. Yet, he thinks he can become Nigeria’s president with just the Gen-Z vote.

It is not my duty to provide them with a strategy on how to beat President Tinubu at the polls. It is for all the political contestants at the 2027 General Elections to take a hard look in the mirror and ask themselves what they really want. Do they want to contest the elections, lose it and then head to court, only for them to get a double whammy? Or do they want a good shot at winning the presidency so they can better the lives of the millions of Nigerians that are supporting them?

If the latter is their goal, then I will expect a serious conversation among contestants of the opposition parties on who they can coalesce around, which at this present moment in time is none of the candidates on the ballot paper. That is not a disrespect to any of the candidates. It’s just an honest observation about the power dynamics of Nigerian politics that believe in false pedigree rather than competence.

In conclusion, the road to 2027 is going to be very bumpy both for the contestants and for Nigerians who are hoping for improvements in their living standards. Except something drastic happens, President Tinubu is looking as though he is coasting to victory. Despite the many controversies that seem to surround him. He is more determined to see his second-term dream come true as long as he is still breathing.

If that is the case, then the Yoruba Nation self-determination activists need now to understand that we need to play the long game. We have mentioned it several times to our people that this race is a marathon, and not a sprint, and our main goal is sovereignty for the Yoruba people.

Whether the 2027 general election will be the catalyst for which it manifests, that I cannot say. However, one thing is certain: the Yoruba nation of our dream is just around the corner. All we can do now is bide our time and wait for the opening. For when that time comes, we should be prepared like a hawk that is ready to strike its prey at a moment’s notice.