By Kayode Emola
With the Osun State Governorship election taking place today, the race for the number one spot is heating up between the Adelekes and the Oyebamijis’ camp, with each candidate hoping to come out on top. Interestingly, not even the sitting governor is confident about his chances of a clear victory at the polls.
More importantly, the sitting Governor Adeleke, who once flew the flag of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) had long decamped to the Accord Party, making the PDP a ghost party in this election.
Whether Governor Adeleke’s new alliance with the Accord Party will give him victory at this election for a second tenure remains to be seen. The resentment by the old guard at the Accord Party against the PDP people, whom they perceive as usurpers, is glaring for all to see. This might be a great thorn in the way for the incumbent Governor.
That aside, Oyebamiji is going to get massive support from the Federal Government as the President would no doubt want to use the Osun State elections to firm up his own hold of power in Yorubaland. This is going to be an election of wits, and everything is on the table.
Whoever wins this election, I hope the loser will concede defeat and allow the good people of Osun State to move on with their lives in peace. That said, if Governor Adeleke loses the election, then that would mean political suicide for many of the PDP members who decamped with him to the Accord Party. Will they return to the PDP, which is now a shadow of its former glory, or will they consolidate their position in the Accord Party to become a powerhouse in Yoruba?
The same story may not necessarily apply to the All Progressive Congress (APC) with their federal power machine. Even if they lose, for them, it’s still business as usual. The presidency will continue to fund the APC state party structure, and hopes to score some points in the 2027 General elections.
For many observers and onlookers, this election will serve as a litmus test for the 2027 presidential election. This will give political analysts the tool to adequately predict what would happen in the 2027 general elections.
If by some stroke of faith, the Accord Party manages to win the election at the polling unit, but somehow, the APC candidate is declared winner, then the predictions for 2027 are already glaring for all to see. Many observers will know that President Tinubu will be declared winner of the 2027 presidential election even if he loses that election.
That would be an interesting situation for Nigeria as it solidifies the fact that nearly the northern, eastern, and other regions of the country will be more hostile to the president. This will make the case for separation even louder than it has been, if not even physical this time around.
As patriots of the Yoruba Nation struggle, I believe it is the best time to analyse this situation with a laser-focused mind. We should see this coming election as an opportunity to map out a strategy for our own actions for when the chickens come home to roost, as Nigeria may not remain the same after this election.
My hope and prayer are that at the end of the day, the Yoruba Nation and its people should come out victorious. If the battle between the politicians from the North and South is what it takes for Nigeria to finally snap, then I hope the rift between them grows even stronger.
