By Dr. Sani Sa’idu Baba
Let me begin with this popular Hausa proverb: “Sarkin yawa yafi Sarkin karfi” “The king with the larger following is stronger than the king with greater force.”
As Nigeria steadily approaches the January 16, 2027 presidential election, the political landscape is undergoing a profound paradigm shift. While President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his supporters rely heavily on the traditional levers of state power, control of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the judiciary, and the formidable power of incumbency, a massive psychological and structural awakening is quietly sweeping through the Nigerian electorate.
As President Tinubu often remarks about 2027, “the deal is done.” Yet, ordinary Nigerians are declaring the exact same slogan with a completely different intent. Whether this statement falls in favour of the status quo or the populace depends entirely on the collective resolve of everyday Nigerians to prove that power truly resides with the people. While Tinubu controls the state apparatus, His Excellency Atiku Abubakar holds the psychological momentum and widespread popular backing ahead of 2027. Five reasons why Atiku will win the 2027 election are:
1. Reclaiming the Northern Vote: The End of Disenfranchisement
Atiku Abubakar did not lose the 2023 presidential election because Nigerians rejected his candidacy. Rather, his political momentum was artificially suppressed by a combination of voter self-disenfranchisement, logistical hurdles, and the institutional manipulation of the electoral process.
According to official statistics analysing Fourth Republic voter participation, voter turnout in Nigeria reached a historical low in 2023:
Trend of Voters’ Turnout in Nigeria (1999–2023)
1999: 52%
2003: 69%
2007: 58%
2011: 54%
2015: 44%
2019: 35%
2023: 27%
Out of 93,469,008 registered voters nationwide, only 24,965,218 voters participated in the 2023 presidential election. The zonal breakdown underscores how massive voter apathy across the North heavily suppressed electoral turnout:
2023 voter turnout by geopolitical zone:
North West: 22,255,562 registered; 6,912,574 votes cast — 31.10%.
North Central plus FCT: 15,363,731 registered; 4,730,591 votes cast — 30.80%.
North East: 12,542,429 registered; 3,612,527 votes cast — 28.80%.
South West: 17,958,966 registered; 4,440,366 votes cast — 24.73%.
South East: 10,907,606 registered; 2,282,212 votes cast — 20.92%.
South South: 14,440,714 registered; 3,011,093 votes cast — 20.85%.
With turnout lingering around 28% to 31% across the Northern zones in 2023, millions of voters stayed home due to economic frustration, security threats, and the belief that their votes would not count. However, 2027 will not be business as usual. Northerners are fully determined to go to the polls in record numbers, recognising that voter apathy only serves to perpetuate poor governance.
2. Grassroots Awakening: The Effective “5k = 5M” Campaign
This renewed determination is further strengthened by a grassroots political awakening taking place across Northern villages. Even among illiterate voters in the remote nooks and crannies, a powerful anti-inducement slogan has taken root: “Karbi 5 Kabiya Miliyan Biyar,” meaning “Collect 5k, Pay 5M” (5k = 5M).
The logic behind the slogan is simple yet devastatingly effective: if you collect a ₦5,000 bribe to sell your vote on election day, you will pay it back with ₦5,000,000 as ransom to bandits, or in extreme economic hardship and inflation over the following four years.
This rejection of inducement was also visible during the recently concluded Ramadan and Sallah festivities, when many people in the North reportedly rejected rice and other gifts offered by politicians. The message is increasingly clear: temporary gifts cannot compensate for four years of poor governance.
This awareness means that financial inducements will fail to secure victory for the ruling party. Northerners may take the money if offered, but their actual votes will reflect their desire for survival and good governance.
3. Rejection of Vote-Splitting: Dismissing the “Contractors”
In 2023, the opposition vote was fragmented across multiple candidates, allowing a candidate with a narrow minority mandate to take power. Northern electors have recognised this mistake and are actively rejecting any further attempts to split their voting bloc.
Whenever Northern voters refer to political figures as “contractors” in ongoing political discussions, they are directly referencing figures like Rabiu Kwankwaso and Peter Obi. The spoiler effect that weakened the main opposition in 2023 is no longer achievable.
Peter Obi, who rode a wave of religious enthusiasm and emotional backlash in 2023, can no longer pull off an upset in 2027. With the religious factor greatly weakened, Obi is widely dismissed as a viable third force, clearing the field for a direct contest between the ruling party and the main opposition.
4. Atiku Abubakar: The Candidate of Necessity
With third force distractions removed, the vast majority of Northerners have accepted Atiku Abubakar as the candidate of necessity for 2027.
Atiku stands out as the most experienced candidate, possessing a clear readiness to govern, deep national administrative capacity, and a firm understanding of Nigeria’s complex socio-economic realities. As a Northerner with extensive political networks spanning every corner of the country, he represents the most credible leader to restore economic stability and national unity.
He is now increasingly being adopted, irrespective of political affiliations, as the common presidential candidate of choice. The popular saying “Sama Atiku, Kasa Party,” meaning “Atiku at the centre, my party for other candidates,” captures this emerging sentiment: support Atiku for president while retaining one’s preferred party for other positions.
5. Deconstructing the Four Pillars: Ethnicity, Religion, Cash, and Emotion
Chief Dele Momodu famously posited that three major factors shape and determine presidential elections in Nigeria: Ethnicity, Religion, and Cash, a framework to which Emotion (Psychology) serves as a critical fourth dimension. Applying these factors to the 2027 contest demonstrates why Tinubu’s political strategy is falling apart:
Religion: The “Muslim-Muslim” ticket was a deceptive tactic in 2023 that manipulated religious sensibilities in the North while alienating Christians in the South. Ahead of 2027, this religious factor has lost its influence. Northern Muslims realise that a shared faith did not translate to economic relief or security, entirely neutralising the ruling party’s main leverage.
Ethnicity: President Tinubu’s appointments to key federal agencies and the controversial relocation of vital government departments from Abuja to Lagos have left Northern electors with no choice but to respond in kind. Tinubu’s ethnic-leaning governance is being met with a unified ethnic response at the ballot box.
Cash: As demonstrated by the “5k = 5M” movement, vote-buying will fail. The electorate can no longer be bought off by temporary financial inducements.
Emotion & Psychology: The psychological barrier of state invincibility has dissolved. Every citizen now recognises that Tinubu is politically vulnerable, and voters are emotionally primed to express their verdict on January 16, 2027.
While President Bola Ahmed Tinubu relies on incumbency, financial levers, and institutional machinery, the psychological tide has decisively turned against him. Driven by high voter participation, a grassroots rejection of vote buying, the elimination of vote splitting third forces, and the consolidation of support behind Atiku Abubakar, the popular will of the Nigerian people is set to redefine the nation’s political landscape in 2027.
Ultimately, the 2027 election may not be decided by who controls the greatest machinery of government, but by who commands the greater following of Nigerians at the ballot box. “Sarkin yawa yafi Sarkin karfi.”
Dr. Sani Sa’idu Baba writes from Kano, and can be reached via drssbaba@yahoo.com
