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Again, Nigeria Emerges Africa’s Biggest Economy As South Africa Enters Recession

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Nigeria has overtaken South Africa as the biggest economy in Africa as the latter enters its second recession in two years.

South Africa’s Gross Domestic Product shrank by 1.4 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2019, following a revised 0.8 per cent contraction in the third quarter, data from Statistics South Africa showed on Tuesday.

Nigeria’s GDP grew by 2.55 per cent in Q4 2019, its highest quarterly growth since the recession of 2016.

The country’s economic growth rose by 2.27 per cent in 2019, compared to a growth rate of 1.91 per cent in 2018.

Bloomberg reported on Tuesday that the answer to the question of whether South Africa or Nigeria was the biggest economy on the continent had long depended on which exchange rate you use for the West African nation.

But now both the official naira rate of 306 per dollar and the weaker market exchange rate of around 360 that almost all investors use put Nigeria tops, according to the report.

The report said, “Nigeria’s economic growth beat forecasts in the fourth quarter, helping its economy to expand the most in four years in 2019 as oil output increased and the central bank took steps to boost credit growth. The GDP in the West African country stood at $476bn or $402bn, depending on the rate used.

“South Africa’s economy went the opposite direction. It slumped into a second recession in consecutive years, contracting more than projected in the fourth quarter as power cuts weighed on output and business confidence.

“For the full year, expansion was 0.2 per cent, the least since the global financial crisis, and even less than the central bank and government estimated. Based on an average rand-dollar exchange rate of 14.43 for the year, the GDP was $352bn.”

According to Bloomberg, projections show Nigeria’s economy will continue to grow faster.

It said while the International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for Nigeria’s 2020 growth to two per cent from 2.5 per cent last month due to lower oil prices, South Africa’s GDP was forecast to expand only by 0.8 per cent.

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Economy

Atiku Cautions Tinubu Against ‘Reckless’ Borrowing, Says It’s Economic Sabotage

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Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has criticised the decision of the President Bola Tinubu-led administration to seek new external and domestic loans, describing the move as reckless and a threat to Nigeria’s economic future.

In a statement on Thursday via X, Atiku said the proposed borrowing of $21.54 billion, €2.19 billion, and ¥15 billion — totaling over $24 billion — would dangerously increase the country’s debt profile, raising concerns about long-term sustainability.

“This borrowing spree will raise our total public debt from ₦144.7 trillion to a crushing ₦183 trillion,” Atiku stated, warning that the new loans represent more than 60% of Nigeria’s total foreign exchange reserves.

He noted that Nigeria’s debt burden has already reached alarming levels, with public debt standing at $94 billion (₦144.7 trillion) as of December 31, 2024.

Atiku further said, “Since President Tinubu assumed office in 2023, public debt has jumped by 65.6%. Under the APC-led administration since 2015, public debt has ballooned by 1,048%, from ₦12.6 trillion to ₦144.7 trillion.”

He decried the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 50% and a debt-service-to-revenue ratio of over 130%, arguing that the government is spending more on repaying loans than it earns.

“This is not just unsustainable — it is immoral. The Tinubu administration is borrowing money not for development but to service existing loans, fueling a debt spiral that leaves nothing for infrastructure, education, healthcare, or jobs,” he said.

The former Vice President described the pattern of borrowing as a “Ponzi scheme,” warning that “Nigeria is now caught in a vicious cycle that mortgages the future to pay for the past.”

Calling the plan economic sabotage, Atiku urged immediate action to stop what he described as a looming catastrophe.

“We demand that this reckless borrowing plan be halted immediately. We call on lawmakers, civil society organisations, the media, and the international community to take urgent action to stop this looming catastrophe. Nigeria must not be sold into debt slavery,” he added.

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Economy

IMF Scores Tinubu’s Economic Reforms Below Pass Mark

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says that Nigeria faces significant uncertainty in its economic outlook despite wide-ranging reforms.

It, however, noted that the gains are yet to benefit all Nigerians with poverty and food insecurity remaining high.

Concluding its 2025 Article IV Consultations with Nigeria’s public policy executives during the week, IMF’s team, led by Axel Schimmelpfennig, its mission chief for Nigeria, acknowledged that Nigeria has taken important steps to stabilize the economy, enhance resilience, and support growth.

The IMF team had met with Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, Abubakar Kyari, Central Bank of Nigeria Governor, Yemi Cardoso, senior government and central bank officials, the Ministry of Environment, the private sector, academia, labour unions, and civil society.

Although the IMF representatives said these reforms have put Nigeria in a better position to navigate the external environment, the macroeconomic outlook remains marked by significant uncertainty.

They said that the elevated global risk sentiment and lower oil prices would impact the Nigerian economy.

They, therefore, recommended that macroeconomic policies need to further strengthen buffers and resilience, reduce inflation, and support private sector-led growth.

The final report of the consultations stated: “The Nigerian authorities have taken important steps to stabilize the economy, enhance resilience, and support growth.

‘‘The financing of the fiscal deficit by the central bank has ceased, costly fuel subsidies were removed, and the functioning of the foreign exchange market has improved.

‘‘Gains have yet to benefit all Nigerians as poverty and food insecurity remain high.

‘‘The outlook is marked by significant uncertainty. Elevated global risk sentiment and lower oil prices impact the Nigerian economy.

‘‘The reforms since 2023 have put the Nigerian economy in a better position to navigate this external environment. ‘‘Looking ahead, macroeconomic policies need to further strengthen buffers and resilience, while creating enabling conditions for private sector-led growth.

“The authorities communicated to the mission that they will implement the 2025 budget in a manner that is responsive to the decline in international oil prices. A neutral fiscal stance would support monetary policy to bring down inflation.

‘‘To safeguard key spending priorities, it is imperative that fiscal savings from the fuel subsidy removal are channeled to the budget.

‘‘In particular, adjustments should protect critical, growth-enhancing investment, while accelerating and broadening the delivery of cash transfers under the World Bank-supported program to provide relief to those experiencing food insecurity.

“A tight monetary policy stance is required to firmly guide inflation down. The Monetary Policy Committee’s data-dependent approach has served Nigeria well and will help navigate elevated macroeconomic uncertainty.

‘‘Announcing a disinflation path to serve as an intermediate target can help anchor inflation expectations.”

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Economy

My Policy on Fuel Subsidy Removal Yielding Results, Says Tinubu

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President Bola Tinubu has declared that his fuel subsidy removal policy is yielding the desired results, pointing out that prices are gradually declining.

The President also asserted that investors are increasingly showing interest in the Nigerian economy, a development he attributed to the removal of fuel subsidies, a policy introduced on 29th May 2023.

Tinubu made these remarks on Monday while inaugurating the National Youth Council at the Presidential Villa, Abuja.

Addressing the youths, Tinubu emphasised that while politicians will always be politicians, true leadership is about fostering development that benefits future generations.

He urged Nigerian youths to take advantage of the opportunities being created by the government, particularly in the ICT sector, to contribute to national development.

Tinubu said: “I have listened to you. Today is not for long speeches. I just want to reassure you that you are the hope of this country. Everything rests on your shoulders. Every decision I have taken is about you and the future.

“When we removed the fuel subsidy, we were securing a future for generations yet unborn. Where is the investment? Where is the infrastructure? When you hear many professionals say they want to ‘JAPA’, it is because prosperity is not widespread at home. If we create opportunities and empower our people, they will have no reason to leave.

“This is your country to develop, build, and prosper in. The government is fully committed to you. Take this seriously. You can criticise politicians all you want, but ultimately, politics is about development and securing a future for the next generation.

“At the beginning, it seemed uncertain, difficult, and even hopeless. It felt like drawing water from a dry well. But today, the economy is turning a corner. Prices are falling, confidence in our economy is improving, and investors are showing interest. Technology is advancing, and you have opportunities before you.”

The President reminded the youths that they have a crucial role in advancing the nation’s development.

“It is all in your hands. My role is to help navigate, push, and implement key programmes to clear the path for you. But it is up to you to seize the moment. Look me in the eye and tell me what you think—whether it is right or wrong—and offer suggestions. We will consider them as long as they contribute to the prosperity of this country.

“I assure you that we will do everything possible to make Nigeria a better place for you, but we cannot do it alone. You represent over 60 per cent of our population. You are the heartbeat of our nation, and I hope you take this opportunity very seriously,” he said.

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