Connect with us

Featured

How Regional Arithmetic Favours Atiku Abubakar in 2027

Published

on

By Dr. Sani Sa’idu Baba

Nigeria’s 2027 presidential contest is shaping up around a potentially decisive regional dynamic, though it remains contingent on the widely speculated exit of Peter Obi from the ADC to the NDC. Should that realignment materialize, the race could feature two formidable Southern candidates, Bola Ahmed Tinubu from the South-West and Peter Obi from the South-East against a single Northern heavyweight, Atiku Abubakar from the North-East. Such a configuration would significantly reshape the electoral map and redefine the path to victory.

Drawing inspiration from the wisdom and uncommon analytical depth of the former presidential candidate Chief Dele Momodu, it is worth recalling how he accurately predicted the outcome of the 2015 Nigerian presidential election, breaking it down zone-by-zone and state-by-state with remarkable precision. His October 2014 piece, “Buhari versus Jonathan: In Search of a Mathematician,” remains a testament to strategic political forecasting. While I may not claim such mathematical exactness, I will make a clear and reasoned case that the most viable path to defeating Tinubu in 2027 lies in rallying behind Atiku Abubakar.

President Tinubu’s post-2023 strategy appears to have shifted after an early realization that his relationship with the North had weakened, with growing discontent and opposition forces he could neither easily contain nor ignore. In response, he seems to have turned decisively toward consolidating the South, strengthening ties in the South-South, engaging political actors in the South-East, and reinforcing his natural base in the South-West in a bid to secure that region as a unified stronghold. This creates the impression that the South may lean toward continuity. However, should Peter Obi contest independently, that cohesion fractures. The Southern vote would likely split between Tinubu and Obi, opening space for Atiku Abubakar to gain footholds, especially if he secures a strategic running mate from the region.

In contrast, the North presents a different and potentially decisive equation. There is a growing perception across the region that the political moment favors consolidation behind Atiku Abubakar more than ever before. Several factors are often cited in this regard. First is the belief among many Northern voters that the current administration has exhibited ethnic bias in appointments and governance. Second is the widespread perception of imbalance in policy direction and project distribution, with flagship initiatives such as the Lagos-Calabar coastal highway seen by many as disproportionately favoring the South-West. Third, the religious sentiment that played a role in the 2023 elections appears to be losing its mobilizing power, with many voters signaling a shift away from identity-based considerations toward broader governance concerns.

Additionally, persistent insecurity and underdevelopment in many parts of the North continue to shape political expectations, with many citizens prioritizing leadership they believe can directly address these challenges. Finally, Atiku’s recent positioning of 2027 as his final presidential bid, alongside renewed emphasis on his policy proposals, appears to be resonating with the significant segments of the Northern electorate. Taken together, these dynamics suggest that Atiku is strongly positioned to secure a more unified and possibly expanded Northern mandate than in previous cycles.

The implication is straightforward: a divided South versus a relatively unified North could tilt the balance. In such a scenario, Atiku’s path to victory becomes more viable, not despite Obi’s participation, but partly because of it. The 2027 election, therefore, may be less about religious alignments, as seen in 2023, and more about regional calculations.

While outcomes remain uncertain, this emerging structure suggests that the opposition’s most realistic chance against an incumbent lies in leveraging regional arithmetic effectively and in that equation, Atiku Abubakar appears strategically advantaged…

Dr. Sani Sa’idu Baba writes from Kano, and can be reached via drssbaba@yahoo.com

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Featured

Dominican University Hails Peter Obi on 65th Birthday

Published

on

By

The Dominican University, Ibadan, has paid glowing tribute to its Pro-Chancellor and former Governor of Anambra State, Mr. Peter Obi, on his 65th birthday, describing him as a visionary leader whose commitment to education, youth development and national progress continues to inspire generations of Nigerians.

In a goodwill message issued on Sunday, the Vice-Chancellor of the university, Prof. Jacinta Opara, lauded Obi’s enduring passion for quality education, noting that his consistent investments in human capital and advocacy for educational excellence have strengthened institutions and offered hope to young people across the country.

According to Opara, Obi has, through his public service and private engagements, remained a steadfast champion of education, making it a cornerstone of his vision for national development.

She said his words, actions and unwavering support for learning had reinforced the conviction that education remains the most effective instrument for building a prosperous, inclusive and sustainable society.

The university also expressed appreciation for Obi’s contributions to the institution as Pro-Chancellor, describing his leadership, generosity and guidance as instrumental to its growth and development.

The statement noted that under his stewardship, Dominican University has continued to pursue academic excellence while remaining committed to its mission of producing morally upright and globally competitive graduates.

It read in part: “As a university founded a decade ago on the rich 800-year educational heritage of the Order of Preachers (Dominicans), we remain profoundly grateful for your visionary leadership, generous support and invaluable contributions as our Pro-Chancellor.”

The institution joined family members, associates and well-wishers in celebrating Obi’s milestone, praying for continued good health, wisdom, strength and divine guidance as he continues to advocate good governance, human dignity, hope and national development.

The message, signed by the Vice-Chancellor, reaffirmed the university’s pride in its association with Obi, whose dedication to education, integrity and selfless service, it said, continues to leave a lasting impact on the nation and inspire future generations.

Continue Reading

Featured

Ooni of Ife Loses Elder Brother Prince Adetunji

Published

on

By

The Ooni of Ife, Oba Adeyeye Ogunwusi, Ojaja II, has announced the passing of his immediate elder brother, Prince Adetunji Ogunwusi.

The monarch made the announcement in a statement released on Sunday through the Director of Media and Public Affairs at the Ooni’s Palace, Sodiq Lawal.

Describing the late prince as a respected businessman and compassionate leader, the Ooni said Prince Adetunji lived a life dedicated to service, humility and the wellbeing of others.

According to the statement, the death of Prince Adetunji has left a deep void in the Ogunwusi family, the Ojaja Royal Dynasty and the entire Ile-Ife Kingdom.

Prince Adetunji, who was born on December 8, 1967, was a member of the Ojaja lineage of the Giesi Ruling House in Ile-Ife. He was also the Group Chairman of Primewaterview Holdings, where he earned recognition for his contributions to business development and entrepreneurship.

The Ooni noted that his late brother built a reputation as an innovative entrepreneur and visionary leader. Through his business activities, he created opportunities for many people and contributed to economic growth in different sectors.

The monarch further stated that beyond his achievements in business, Prince Adetunji was known for his generosity, kindness and commitment to humanitarian causes. He was said to have quietly supported many individuals and families, offering assistance, guidance and encouragement whenever needed.

The statement added that Prince Adetunji’s influence extended beyond the corporate world, as he remained deeply connected to his roots and maintained a strong interest in the progress and development of Ile-Ife and its people.

The Ooni described his late brother as a dependable adviser, a loving family member and a man whose legacy would continue to inspire future generations.

Family members, friends, associates and well wishers have continued to pay tribute to the late prince, remembering him for his humility, wisdom and positive impact on society.

The palace said further details regarding funeral arrangements and other ceremonies would be announced by the family in due course.

Prince Adetunji’s death marks a significant loss to the royal family and the people of Ile-Ife, who will remember him for his service, leadership and dedication to humanity.

Continue Reading

Featured

Harakati Za Holds Pan-African Conference on Economic Restructuring, Political Reforms, Regional Integration in Accra

Published

on

By

More than 200 delegates from across Africa are expected to converge in Accra on July 24, 2026, for an international conference on “Economic Restructuring, Political Reforms and Integration for Sustainable Development in Africa.”

The conference, organised by Harakati Za Muungano, will take place at the GNAT Hall and will bring together policymakers, academics, business leaders, traditional authorities, civil society organisations, youth leaders and development partners to explore practical solutions for accelerating Africa’s development through deeper regional integration.

Harakati Za Muungano, a Swahili phrase meaning “Union Movement,” is a pan-African movement committed to promoting African unity, economic transformation and governance reforms that support sustainable development.

The organisation believes that Africa’s vast human and natural resources can only be fully harnessed through stronger regional cooperation, enhanced intra-African trade and governance systems that place the continent’s long-term development at the centre of public policy.

Since its establishment in November 2023, the movement has expanded its operations to 17 African countries, engaging governments, regional institutions, traditional leaders, professionals, youth groups and community organisations.

Its work focuses on policy advocacy, research, civic engagement and humanitarian initiatives aimed at fostering inclusive development, strengthening regional cooperation and encouraging reforms that improve the quality of life of Africans.

The conference will provide a platform for participants to deliberate on critical issues affecting the continent, including constitutional reforms, economic restructuring, regional market integration, industrialisation, governance continuity and sustainable financing models for development.

Organisers expect the discussions to produce practical recommendations that can inform policy decisions at both national and regional levels.

A major focus of the conference will be the movement’s vision of a more integrated Sub-Saharan Africa where barriers to trade and movement are reduced, economic collaboration is strengthened and governments adopt policies that encourage long-term planning, investment and shared prosperity.

The organisation believes that greater integration will unlock new opportunities for businesses, create jobs, promote industrial growth and enhance Africa’s global competitiveness.

Organisers say the conference represents an important opportunity for African leaders and stakeholders to collectively examine bold and innovative approaches to the continent’s future.

With over 200 delegates expected from across the continent, the event is anticipated to foster meaningful dialogue, strengthen partnerships and advance a shared vision of an economically resilient, politically stable and fully integrated Africa.

-Overseeronline.com

Continue Reading

Trending