By Dr. Sani Sa’idu Baba

Nigeria’s 2027 presidential contest is shaping up around a potentially decisive regional dynamic, though it remains contingent on the widely speculated exit of Peter Obi from the ADC to the NDC. Should that realignment materialize, the race could feature two formidable Southern candidates, Bola Ahmed Tinubu from the South-West and Peter Obi from the South-East against a single Northern heavyweight, Atiku Abubakar from the North-East. Such a configuration would significantly reshape the electoral map and redefine the path to victory.

Drawing inspiration from the wisdom and uncommon analytical depth of the former presidential candidate Chief Dele Momodu, it is worth recalling how he accurately predicted the outcome of the 2015 Nigerian presidential election, breaking it down zone-by-zone and state-by-state with remarkable precision. His October 2014 piece, “Buhari versus Jonathan: In Search of a Mathematician,” remains a testament to strategic political forecasting. While I may not claim such mathematical exactness, I will make a clear and reasoned case that the most viable path to defeating Tinubu in 2027 lies in rallying behind Atiku Abubakar.

President Tinubu’s post-2023 strategy appears to have shifted after an early realization that his relationship with the North had weakened, with growing discontent and opposition forces he could neither easily contain nor ignore. In response, he seems to have turned decisively toward consolidating the South, strengthening ties in the South-South, engaging political actors in the South-East, and reinforcing his natural base in the South-West in a bid to secure that region as a unified stronghold. This creates the impression that the South may lean toward continuity. However, should Peter Obi contest independently, that cohesion fractures. The Southern vote would likely split between Tinubu and Obi, opening space for Atiku Abubakar to gain footholds, especially if he secures a strategic running mate from the region.

In contrast, the North presents a different and potentially decisive equation. There is a growing perception across the region that the political moment favors consolidation behind Atiku Abubakar more than ever before. Several factors are often cited in this regard. First is the belief among many Northern voters that the current administration has exhibited ethnic bias in appointments and governance. Second is the widespread perception of imbalance in policy direction and project distribution, with flagship initiatives such as the Lagos-Calabar coastal highway seen by many as disproportionately favoring the South-West. Third, the religious sentiment that played a role in the 2023 elections appears to be losing its mobilizing power, with many voters signaling a shift away from identity-based considerations toward broader governance concerns.

Additionally, persistent insecurity and underdevelopment in many parts of the North continue to shape political expectations, with many citizens prioritizing leadership they believe can directly address these challenges. Finally, Atiku’s recent positioning of 2027 as his final presidential bid, alongside renewed emphasis on his policy proposals, appears to be resonating with the significant segments of the Northern electorate. Taken together, these dynamics suggest that Atiku is strongly positioned to secure a more unified and possibly expanded Northern mandate than in previous cycles.

The implication is straightforward: a divided South versus a relatively unified North could tilt the balance. In such a scenario, Atiku’s path to victory becomes more viable, not despite Obi’s participation, but partly because of it. The 2027 election, therefore, may be less about religious alignments, as seen in 2023, and more about regional calculations.

While outcomes remain uncertain, this emerging structure suggests that the opposition’s most realistic chance against an incumbent lies in leveraging regional arithmetic effectively and in that equation, Atiku Abubakar appears strategically advantaged…

Dr. Sani Sa’idu Baba writes from Kano, and can be reached via drssbaba@yahoo.com

A chieftain of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Eze Chukwuemeka Eze, has declared that it is over for the President Bola Tinubu administration following the Supreme Court ruling that restored the David Mark-led National Working Committee (NWC) of the opposition party.

Eze, in a statement on Friday, criticized the Attorney General of the Federation, Lateef Fagbemi (SAN) and the INEC chairman, Prof Joash Amupitan, asserting that they should be ashamed for acting as obstacles to the survival of democracy in Nigeria.

He said: “The government led by President Bola Tinubu has tarnished the judiciary. Certain judges and courts are reportedly being systematically employed to undermine the leadership of political parties in anticipation of the 2027 general elections.

“Even when all seemed lost, given the recent court rulings in political cases, particularly those involving opposition parties, Thursday’s Supreme Court judgment was a divine intervention.

“We express our gratitude to God Almighty for prompting the Supreme Court to overturn that disgraceful, distorted, and anti-democratic ruling issued by the Federal High Court, the Court of Appeal, and the misguided interpretation and decision of INEC regarding our party, the ADC.”

He stressed that the time has come for Tinubu and his alleged undemocratic associates in Aso Rock to return to Lagos.

“With Thursday’s ruling saving the ADC from destruction, it is time for Tinubu to begin drafting his handover notes and prepare for his return to Lagos State,” Eze stated.

Eze advised the ADC to concentrate on its primary function as a prominent opposition party in the upcoming 2027 general elections, as that the leadership dispute has been resolved.

He emphasized that stability at the upper levels of the party will result in improved organization, clearer communication, and enhanced participation in Nigeria’s political arena.

Notably, he asserted that the ruling will add to Nigeria’s expanding collection of case laws regarding political party governance, and urged the ADC to stay focused on its objective of reclaiming power from the APC due to poor governance.

“It highlights the judiciary’s role in interpreting party constitutions and ensuring adherence, which may affect how future conflicts are resolved,” Eze stated.

He praised the panel for upholding justice, remarking that any opposing decision regarding the ADC’s alleged leadership issue would have further entangled the Judiciary in the murky waters of arbitral corruption.

“Clearly, this ruling has set the stage for cohesion, unity, stability, and effective leadership within the ADC.

“With this issue now definitively settled, even though it should not have been justiciable ab initio, as it pertains to an internal matter of a political party, we urge all our members, stakeholders, and supporters to unite behind the David Mark-led leadership of the ADC to collectively reposition the party for greater national significance, viability, and visibility,” Eze said.

The African Democratic Congress (ADC) has declared that it would never be intimidated, distracted, or silenced in its push to realize a better Nigeria.

Spokesman of the ADC, Bolaji Abdullahi, said this in reaction to the Supreme Court ruling, which affirmed David Mark’s leadership of the party.

Abdullahi said the judgment has affirmed that the Mark and Rauf Aregbesola leadership of the party is legitimate.

Abdullahi said: “The African Democratic Congress (ADC) congratulates all our members and leaders across the country on today’s Supreme Court ruling which affirmed the leadership of our party under Senator David Mark as National Chairman, and Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola as National Secretary.

“Today’s decision is a clear affirmation that our party, its structures, and its leadership under our National Chairman, Senator Mark, and our National Secretary, Ogbeni Aregbesola, are legitimate.

“We commend the five-man panel of the Supreme Court, whose unanimous judgment has today done great credit to the judiciary in our country and our political system.

“However, while we welcome this judgment, we do not mistake it for the end of the struggle. The events leading up to this moment have exposed a troubling pattern of interference, bad faith, and attempts to weaken opposition voices in Nigeria.

“Let it be clearly stated: the ADC will not be intimidated, distracted, or silenced. We remain resolute in our mission to provide Nigerians with a credible alternative.

“We therefore urge all our members, supporters, and democratic stakeholders across the country to remain vigilant.”