By Kayode Emola
With the matter of climate change on the lips of nearly every decision-maker in advanced economies, it is worth examining the causes and effects of the phenomenon provoking this new buzzword. At its heart, the core issue is that the temperature of our planet is rising, largely due to the actions of major economies, but the price of which we all will have to pay, one way or another.
The ultimate limit established by the research of climate scientists is 1.5 degrees – increase the global temperature any more than this and the results are predicted to be cataclysmic. This has prompted several countries to start racing against the clock to implement measures to prevent the planet from exceeding, or even reaching this figure. Nevertheless, the actions pledged appear to be too little and too late, seeming that there is to be no good news anytime soon.
Just this week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) just announced that El Niño, the phenomenon where the surface of the Pacific Ocean becomes abnormally warm, has just begun. This rise in the water temperature has a number of severe and far-reaching effects.
Firstly, warmer water is less nutrient-rich than cooler water drawn to the surface by the normal process of upwelling. Prevention of this upwelling by the increased depth of warm surface waters seen in El Niño leads to a reduction in marine biodiversity, with populations of fish – relied upon by many in coastal regions as a dietary staple – being severely decimated.
Furthermore, El Niño is accompanied by the Southern Oscillation – a drop in the atmospheric pressure of the climate overlying the warmer water. Convection of heat in this area leads to increased rainfall in some areas of the globe – leading to flooding, erosion, destruction of homes, crops, and lives; whilst reducing the rainfall in other areas, with consequent droughts and crop failures.
These effects are not merely limited to the area around the Pacific Rim. South American countries, such as Ecuador and Peru, suffer devastating flooding. Oceanic countries including Indonesia, Malaysia, and Australia are struck by severe droughts. Countries of both North and South America experience longer, harsher winters, with the western coasts of the two continents subjected to extreme storms. India and Southeast Asia see their monsoons reduced, whilst Sub-Saharan Africa sees even more rainfall during their rainy seasons.
Where floods prevail, diseases can thrive, with outbreaks of cholera, dengue, and malaria occurring. Where droughts predominate, wildfires can spark and spread uncontrollably, causing not only death but also chronic health conditions with long-term deleterious effects on people’s breathing.
Climate scientists have predicted that the next El Nino is likely to hit by 2024 and warned that this one may be one of the most severe yet. Previously studied El Niño events have lasted between two and seven years, and predictions are unclear on how long this next one will last. One thing is for certain though: many countries will become even hotter and the changes in air pressure that accompany El Niño are sure to disrupt our weather patterns.
Unquestionably, this is going to have an effect on every country in the world. However, just like the Biblical ark of Noah, only those prepared for the storm are likely to survive it. There is no doubt that, whilst the effects of El Niño on countries in different parts of the world will differ, it is universally true that those who have put preparatory measures in place stand a better chance of weathering this phenomenon when it peaks.
This is not a question facing one country alone. Global collaboration is required to address how we can all make life bearable and this world liveable both for ourselves and future generations. Phenomena like this are unavoidable, but how we respond to it may be the difference between life and death.
History has demonstrated that African leaders and their people are frequently the last to respond to global events, seeking handouts from their neo-colonial masters to assuage the devastating consequences, rather than to put measures in place to protect against the oncoming catastrophe before it strikes. The last El Niño, occurring between 2014–2016, affected over 60 million people in Africa. Hunger and malnutrition were rife, caused by a severe drop in food production in 2016.
Before our African people – especially my Yoruba folks – begin to look for which of the gods is bringing droughts, this is the time to plan. If the relatively weaker El Niño of 2014 wrought so much global devastation, how much more can we expect this strong El Niño to cause havoc, especially with the state of our fragile world that is in need of much tender loving care.
We do not have the luxury of time to stall preparations for this El Niño: it is already upon us. However, whilst it is still developing in the Pacific, we can begin to put measures in place to mitigate its effects.
This is the time for governments, both national and regional, around the world to begin to build infrastructure for food storage wherever possible. Thus, when droughts become severe and farm yields shrink, there is a reserve to go around whilst this phenomenon lasts.
We must not forsake the long-term view, either. Government-instituted migration to clean energy sources, in Yorubaland and elsewhere, would allow the dispensing of hydrocarbon-based fuels that are heating up our planet.
Individuals can also do what they are able to in every small corner of the world, to help reduce the amount of CO2 emitted into the atmosphere. A little from everyone would add up to significant gains, from which we will all benefit.
In these ways, we can forestall, and even begin to reverse the rapid deterioration of our planet. I sincerely plead, let us build a roof for ourselves whilst the sun is still shining so that we will have shelter when the storm finally – and inevitably – arrives.
