The Oracle: 25 Years of Uninterrupted Democracy in Nigeria: Prospects and Possibilities (Pt.1)

By Prof Mike Ozekhome SAN

INTRODUCTION

A quarter of a century is a long time in the life of any nation. Nigeria is not an exception. In our case, it has been the longest period of sustained uninterrupted democracy. During that time, children have been born, come of age and become parents themselves. Democracy is the only form of government they have ever known in Nigeria. Their knowledge of military coups has only been gained from stories told by their parents, history books and news from around the world; and in our case, from neighbouring countries in the West African sub-region.

Twenty-five years is certainly enough time for stock-taking and reflection: are we better off today than we were twenty-five years ago under military rule? Has the experience been worthwhile, or is it a catalogue of missed opportunities? Could we or should we have fared better? What did we do wrong or where did we go wrong? How can we improve going forward? Let us attempt some answers, but first a brief look at the past and its challenges which we inherited in 1999.

DIAGNOSIS

Few analyses of Nigeria’s sustained 25 years of democratic rule are more apposite than its comparison by Ashindorbe and Danjibo with the third of three distinct but overlapping processes of democratisation identified by Nic Cheeseman, as follows: First, the transition, when a country adopts multi-party politics (as we did in 1999). The second phase is the reconstitution of a new political order; and the third phase which consolidates the gains of democracy. I agree with them that “two decades after the reintroduction of civilian rule, Nigeria seems to be stuck in the final phase of the democratization process”.

This is because, notwithstanding the undoubted big strides made since then, Nigeria’s democracy is still very fragile; the dividends of democracy are still not immediately tangible. There is increasing inequality between a tiny affluent minority and the overwhelming majority. “Dividends” being a word borrowed from the corporate world to signify distribution of profits or surplus as dividends to its shareholders, we must begin to ask the question whether Nigeria’s peculiar democracy has actually yielded profit from which dividends are expected by the people. For reasons which I will anon outline, I agree with them that the shift from the transition to the consolidation stages of the democratization continuum will require a deliberate public policy framework directed at, amongst others, addressing the ravages of debilitating poverty and penury; the sanitization of the electoral process; deepening fundamental rights and the rule of law and enhancing inclusion of women and the youth in governance.

HOW WE LOST IT

By way of statistics, it will be helpful to contextualize the economic realities of our not-so-distant history in order to see whether democracy has improved our lot or otherwise. In this regard, the following are undisputed facts:

Nigeria developed rapidly in the seventies and eighties. We were a productive and exporting country. We literally swam in crude oil. Nigeria used to have National Development Plan (NDP), e.g, the 1962 – 1968 NDP. Do we plan even for 4 years now, when all our Politicians do is to think about the next elections? Before our tragic fall, we excelled in all economic indices.
i. We had the Ajaokuta Steel Co. Ltd; the Delta Steel company; Steel Companies in Onitsha, Asaba and Owerri; Kano and Katsina Steel Rolling Companies; the Oshogbo, Ikeja, Ikorodu and Ibadan Steel Companies; etc, etc.
ii. We wore clothes at that time which were produced from the United Nigeria Textile Mills in Kaduna and Chellarams in Lagos. They were produced, not from any imported cotton, but from cotton grown in Nigeria, especially in the North and the West.
iii. The Oku Iboku Pulp and Paper Mill supplied our newsprint from its 16,000 hectares tree plantation.
iv. Nigerians cooked with LPG gas stored in gas cylinders that were produced at the NGC factory in Ibadan.
v. Nigerians were mainly flying our airways (the Nigerian Airways) to most places in the world. The Nigeria Airways was about the biggest in Africa at the time. I personally used to fly it to London and USA in the eighties with less than N500 trip.
vi. Nigerians used refrigerators, freezers and air-conditioners produced by Thermocool and Deboo Industries right here in Nigeria.
vii. Bata and Lennard Stores produced our needed shoes from locally tanned leather made in Kaduna.
viii. We drank clean pipe-borne water through pipes locally produced by Kwalipipe based in Kano and Duraplast located in Lagos.
ix. Nigeria was a net exporter of refined petroleum products. Today we import all our refined petroleum products from other countries. We are operating what late Prof Claude Ake once described as a disarticulate economy – an economy where we produce what we do not consume (crude oil), and consume what we do not produce (refined petroleum products).
x. In the eighties, the naira was stronger than the dollar, exchanging between 40k and 80k to one dollar (compared to N1,500 to one dollar today).
xi. We rode in locally assembled cars, buses and trucks. Peugeot cars were produced in a plant based at Kakuri, Kaduna under a joint venture agreement with Peugeot of Paris on 11th August, 1972. Volkswagen cars in Lagos were produced in Lagos, Nigeria (the Beetle) since 1975, until they ceased operations in 1990.
xii. Leyland Company established in Ibadan in 1976 and ANAMCO in Enugu incorporated on 17th January, 1977, but commissioned in January 1980 in agreement with Daimler AG, produced trucks and buses for our use without resort to importation of vehicles (new or “tokunbo”).
xiii. Steyr in Bauchi produced our agricultural tractors and it was not just assembling, we were producing many of the components.
xiv. We had Vono products in Lagos that produced the vehicle seats used by our vehicle plants.
xv. Exide Company in Ibadan produced batteries, not just for Nigeria, but for the entire West African sub-region.
xvi. IsoGlass and TSG also based in Ibadan produced the windshields used by such vehicles without any imports.
xvii. We had Ferodo a British brake company in Ibadan came on song to produce brake pads and discs used by the said vehicles.
xviii. Dunlop established since 1961 in Lagos and Michelin established in the fifties and based in Port Harcourt produced the tyres needed by the vehicles. And these tyres were produced directly from rubber plantations located in Ogun, the then Bendel (now Edo and Delta) and Rivers State.
xix. The radio and television sets were listened to and watched were assembled in Ibadan by Sanyo.
xx. Our toilets were fitted with WC produced in Kano and Abeokuta.
xxi. Nigeria generated her electricity through cables produced by the Nigerian Wire and Cable, Ibadan; NOCACO in Kaduna and Kablemetal in Lagos and Port Harcourt.
xxii. We grew plants that produced our food locally.

It is no exaggeration to say we were producing all of the above and many more at the dawn of democracy in 1999 or at any rate, just before then. How have we fared since then and has democracy made a positive difference or not? That is the question which I shall present and attempt to answer.

THE CRITICAL SITUATION NOW

Multinationals’ exit is said to cost Nigeria about N94tn in five years
The exodus of multinationals from the Nigerian economy is said to have cost the country a N94tn loss of output in five years, according to an economist and former Director of Research and Advocacy at the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Nigeria, Dr Vincent Nwani.

Multiple multinationals have left Nigeria by either scaling down operations, transferring ownership or selling their stakes, the most recent being the sale of beverage company Diageo’s 58.02 per cent shareholding in Guinness Nigeria to Tolaram Group on June 11, 2024.

Over 10 companies shut down operations in 2020, most notably: Standard Biscuits Nigeria Ltd, NASCO Fiber Product Ltd, Union Trading Company Nigeria PLC and Deli Foods Nigeria Ltd.

In 2021, more than 20 companies exited, including Tower Aluminium Nigeria PLC, Framan Industries Ltd, Stone Industries Ltd, Mufex Nigeria Company Ltd and Surest Foam Ltd.

In 2022 alone, over 15 known brands left Nigeria, including Universal Rubber Company Ltd, Mother’s Pride Ventures Ltd, Errand Products Nigeria Ltd and Gorgeous Metal Makers Ltd.

More than 10 major companies left in 2023, notably Unilever Nigeria PLC, Procter & Gamble Nigeria, GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Nigeria Ltd, ShopRite Nigeria, Sanofi-Aventis Nigeria Ltd, Equinox Nigeria and Bolt Food & Jumia Food Nigeria.

In the first six months of 2024, five listed major companies had left Nigeria, including Microsoft Nigeria, Total Energies Nigeria (affected by its divestment), PZ Cussons Nigeria PLC, Kimberly-Clerk Nigeria and Diageo PLC.

Most alarming is a statement credited to the Manufacturing Association of Nigeria (MAN) to the effect that 767 manufacturing companies shut down operations in Nigeria, while 535 experienced distress in 2023 alone.

Procter and Gamble, a household goods manufacturer is restructuring to become a mere importer, while Bolt, a very user-friendly, a ride-sharing and goods delivery app which only opened shop in Nigeria in 2021 to give Uber a run for its money, is also affected.

The divestment gale is also evident in the oil industry, the very live wire of our economy. No fewer than 26 oil companies and investments pulled out and sold their stakes to domestic investors. These include influential oil mining multinationals such as Shell, ExxonMobil and ENI. These companies are going away mainly because of heightened insecurity in the Niger Delta and inability of the Nigerian government to provide their counterpart funds to enable the joint venture agreements to explore and exploit new oilfields. (To be continued).

THOUGHT FOR THE WEEK

“In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way”. – Franklin D. Roosevelt.