By Kayode Emola
The USA/Iran war is not going as planned, and the world is currently witnessing a stalemate. A stalemate that is bad not just for those who are directly involved but for the entire global economy. Every nation is holding its breath to see what happens with the peace talks being brokered by Pakistan.
While the US and Israel have succeeded in setting Iran back so many years in their weapons and nuclear program development. The Strait of Hormuz has handed Iran a serious lifeline. A lifeline that far surpasses any damage that the joint US-Israeli bombings may have inflicted.
Iran knows that it cannot withstand the US in an open combat. However, it knows that attacking US interests in the Gulf States will give it enormous leverage. Leverage that it can use to bargain at the negotiating table. Coupled with that, the geography of the Strait of Hormuz handed Iran an added layer of advantage, thereby multiplying its immense opportunity to reclaim its destiny.
Before February 28, 2026, when the first bombs started landing in Iran, the US held all the cards at the negotiating table. Once the table has been destroyed and no off ramp available, an exit becomes near impossible, hence the impasse that we all are witnessing.
As things stand, we don’t even know who oversees decision-making in Iran or who the decision makers are. Iran has learnt from Hezbollah’s mistake of announcing a new leader shortly after Hassan Nasrallah was killed by the Israeli forces in September 2024.
Once they announced Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader, Iran made sure he was not put before the public glare to keep him away from harm’s way. Fuelling speculations that he was badly injured during the attack on his father’s compound.
Whether Mojtaba Khamenei is dead or alive or in a coma, as some have suggested, the decentralised system of command built by the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has helped Iran withstand the firepower of the US and Israel. Iranians can come out of this war with their head held high that they have fought a good fight. Despite all the beatings they’ve received, they refuse to capitulate in the face of adversity.
If Iran, which is under severe sanctions and a broken economy, can withstand the firepower of the United States of America, then I believe the Nigerian government needs to bury its head in shame in their fight against insurgency. As it stands, we don’t even know which agency is responsible for the fight against the terrorists troubling the country.
The Nigerian Police Force (NPF) is not properly trained to combat terrorists and kidnappers in the forests. The Nigerian army is also not trained to fight insurgents that have no base from which they operate. Hence, the difficulties in putting this ugly charade to an end. Also, the corruption surrounding mismanaged funds meant to tackle insecurity shows that the country is not geared towards keeping its citizens safe.
Therefore, the over 200 million Nigerians who live in fear daily must realise that there is no one out there looking out for their safety. The Nigerian politicians are more interested in looting the treasury than in saving the lives and livelihood of the citizens. So, if we, the indigenous nationalities that make up Nigeria, continue to think we can remain as a single country with all this mayhem going on, then we must be mistaken.
Our Yoruba people must realise that we are only lucky that no Southwest state was mentioned in the travel advisory given out this week by the US. That is not to say Yorubaland is safer than anywhere in Nigeria. As any attack anywhere in Nigeria affects every Nigerian equally. We must see an attack in Jos, Maiduguri, Ebonyi, Kwara, Kogi, Ogun, Ondo etc as an attack on the Yoruba man.
We must use the ongoing mayhem as our collective starting point to start building a lasting security architecture for the Yoruba defence. One that can withstand both internal and external pressures. We must insist on building systems that will outlast an individual and even an entire generation if the Yoruba must continue to exist beyond the Nigeria that we know today.
