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Nigeria’s Economy Sliding Downwards- World Bank

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The World Bank has said that the Nigerian economy has been slipping since 1995 and this continued till 2018.

The bank, in its latest report on the regional economy titled, ‘Africa’s Pulse’, released the taxonomy of growth performance in sub-Saharan Africa, which focused on the macroeconomic and financial features that led to growth resilience on the continent.

According to the bank, the taxonomy is used to help identify the factors that are correlated with success or failure in economic growth performance in sub-Saharan Africa, with emphasis on macroeconomic and financial variables.

The analysis, it said, involved a series of macroeconomic variables for 44 sub-Saharan African countries from 1995 to 2018.

The key elements that determined the positions of each of the 44 sub-Saharan economies in the taxonomy, the World Bank said, included the level of income per capita of the countries; structural transformation, as captured by sectoral value-added share and sectoral employment share; and capital flows.

Others are level and composition of public sector indebtedness, as captured by the general government gross debt and its currency composition, and the outstanding external public debt.

The last of the indicators has to do with governance vis-a-vis government effectiveness, regulatory quality, control of corruption, voice and accountability, political stability, and absence of violence and rule of law.

According to the World Bank, the taxonomy compares the average annual GDP growth rates during 1995–2008 and 2015–2018 against predetermined thresholds.

It also categorised growth performance into five groups: falling behind, slipping, stuck in the middle, improved, and established. The five groups were further reclassified into three groups: Top tercile, middle tercile and bottom tercile.

The Bretton Wood institution said, “If a country’s economic performance declined from 1995–2008 to 2015–18, the country is categorised in the bottom tercile, which includes ‘falling behind’ and ‘slipping.’ If a country’s growth rate remained invariant over time, between 3.5 and 5.4 per cent in both periods, it is categorised in the middle tercile (or stuck in the middle). If a country’s economic performance improved from 1995–2008 to 2015–18, with the growth of more than 5.4 per cent per year, the country is categorised in the top tercile, which includes the ‘improved’ and ‘established’ groups.”

Based on the above classification, the Nigerian economy was categorised alongside 18 other sub-Saharan African economies as slipping having recorded declined economic performance between 1995 and 2018.

The World Bank said, “The bottom tercile consists of 19 countries: Angola, Burundi, Botswana, the Republic of Congo, the Comoros , Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Liberia, Lesotho, Mauritania, Malawi, Namibia, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Eswatini, Chad, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.  These countries did not show any progress in their economic performance from 1995–2008 to 2015–18. For instance, their median economic growth rate decelerated, from 5.4 per cent per year in 1995–2008 to 1.2 per cent per year in 2015–18.”

The bottom performing economies, according to the World Bank, produce almost 60 per cent of the region’s total GDP, emphasising that the three largest countries in the region—Nigeria, South Africa, and Angola—and many commodity exporters are in this group.

Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Mali, Rwanda, Senegal, and Tanzania made the top tercile.

The middle tercile countries are Benin, the Central African Republic, Cameroon, the

Democratic Republic of Congo, Cabo Verde, The Gambia, Madagascar, Mozambique, Mauritius, Niger, Sudan, São Tomé and Príncipe, Togo, and Uganda.

The World Bank also cut its growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa this year to 2.8 per cent from an initial 3.3 per cent.

The commodity price slump of 2015 cut short a decade of rapid growth for the region, and the bank said growth would take longer to recover as a decline in industrial production and a trade dispute between China and the United States take their toll.

The bank’s 2019 forecast means economic growth will lag population growth for the fourth year in a row and it will remain stuck below three per cent, which it slipped to in 2015.

“The slower-than-expected overall growth reflects ongoing global uncertainty, but increasingly comes from domestic macroeconomic instability including poorly managed debt, inflation and deficits,” the bank said.

The Bretton Wood institution equally cut Nigeria’s growth forecast by 0.1 per cent.

It said, “Growth in Nigeria is projected to rise from 1.9 per cent in 2018 to 2.1 per cent in 2019 (0.1 percentage point lower than last October’s forecast).

“This modest expansion reflects stagnant oil production, as regulatory uncertainty limits investment in the oil sector, while non-oil economic activity is held back by high inflation, policy distortions, and infrastructure constraints.

“Growth is projected to rise slightly to 2.2 per cent in 2020 and reach 2.4 per cent in 2021, as improving financing conditions help boost investment.

“In Nigeria, although the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs remained above the neutral 50-point mark—which denotes expansion—they fell further in February, due to weaker rises in output and new sales orders across firms.

“Household consumption in Nigeria has remained subdued, while multiple exchange rates, foreign exchange restrictions, low private sector credit growth, and infrastructure constraints have continued to weigh on private investment.”

The Chief Economist for Africa at the bank, Albert Zeufack, said the region could boost annual growth by about nearly two percentage points if it harnessed Information Technology more effectively.

“This is a game-changer for Africa,” he added.

However, the  spokesperson for the Central Bank of Nigeria, Mr Isaac Okorafor, said the CBN under the current governor, Mr Godwin Emefiele, had shown so much ingenuity in managing the economy.

“You know the crisis that we have faced in the past three years. The bank has shown ingenuity in managing the situation and ensuring that everything is stable

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Ezekiel Bolarinwa Ajayi: Mentor, Philanthropist Revels at 80

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By Eric Elezuo

The ancient town of Ile-Ife was agog weekend, when Professor Ezekiel Bolarinwa Oladele Ajayi, a renowned educationist, accomplished mentor and elder brother of veteran journalist, Dele Momodu, pulled all the stops to mark a resounding entry into the octogenarian club, celebrating his 80th birthday with fanfare, pomp and class.

The event, which attracted family members, colleagues in the academic world, friends and well wishers, was another testament in the expression of influence, clout and connection.

Held at the Rock Rehoboth Cathedral in the centre of Ile-Ife, the event brought out the best in the Stanford trained PHD holder, as beamed with contagious smiles, absorbing accolades from a crowd of well wishers and dignitaries, most of whom traveled half  way across the world to felicitate with the newest octogenarian.

A lavished reception followed after heartfelt prayers were said for the celebrant flanked by his wife of many years, children and grandchildren. The reception witnessed guests savoring the best of continental and local delicacies as well as dancing happily to the old school tunes.

The highpoint of the event was the cutting of the gigantic cake by the birthday boy around whom were dotting family members.

As guests expressed their profound, hearty and sincere congratulations towards the octogenarian, whose event changed the landscape of Ife, many recalled how they have come a long way from their very humble beginning in Gbongan Olufi.

Fondly called Ladele, Prof Ajayi was born on March 23, 1944 in Gbongan, Osun State, where he had his earliest beginnings.

He statted his education at the Saint Paul’s School Gbongan, before moving on to Saint Judes School, Ebute Metta, and later to Saint Stephens School, Ile-Ife, where he completed his primary education.

After his elementary education, he was admitted into the Government College lbadan, where he was described as having  ‘passed out in exceedingly bright colours’. As many that knows him has confirmed that Prof Ajayi was a walking encyclopedia, and vibrated with intelligence while at school.

It was not therefore, surprising that he later proceeded to the United States of America, after his secondary education, where he attended various prestigious Universities including Stanford University. It is worthy of note that all his appearances for university education were on different scholarships. It was also at Stanford that he bagged his PhD honours.

On the completion of his PhD programme in Stanford, Prof Ajayi was recruited by the University of Ife, as it was then known, before its transmutation to Obafemi Awolowo University, where he later became a Professor of Physics, a position he jealousy guarded until retirement from active classroom duties.

According to a very close family member and confidant, Bola Adeyemo, who spoke glowingly about their fond relationship, Prof Ajayi “also became active in things of God. Like a proverbial gold fish, he has been recognized as a Pastor. Ladele played a mentoring role in the final years of school for my twin daughters who both graduated from the medicine program in the same University.

“The mutual fondness between Ladele and I remains very much intact. Ladele and l share common ancestry. His father who was the Otun Olufi of Gɓongan was a much older cousin to my mother and was fondly referred to as baba mi ile ASORO. They both had the same tribal marks. Ladele can be classified as belonging to the royal class as his father was the OTUN OLUFI while his mother was the daughter of the ÒOSA, first class chief in Gbongan.”

A life of Prof Ajayi without a mention of prolific publisher of the Ovation brands,  Chief Momodu, remains incomplete. It is worthy of note that apart from both sharing the same mum as siblings, the Prof was instrumental in shaping and mentally mentoring Momodu on the path of education. His 80th birthday was a reminder of how it used to be in times past as it marks a form of reunion for the Ajayi extended household.

Among those who attended were his daughter, Kemi Ajayi-Ingram, who flew in all the way from the United States of America, with her entire family; his niece, Yejide Ajayi among a host of others.

We wish the ebullient octogenarian a splendid birthday, and many ore years of splendid celebrations.

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Easter, Ramadan: Adeleke Releases March Salaries, Pension, Palliatives, Approves Promotion for Personnel

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Osun State Governor, Ademola Adeleke, has approved the release of salaries, pensions and palliatives for the month of March for all public servants in the state, as well as approved the promotion of service personnel due for promotion from 2023.

Adeleke’s show of love for the entire workforce, is in spite of the fact that the State allocation from the Federation account is yet to be released, according to a statement signed by the governor’s spokesperson, Mallam Olawale Rasheed.

The Head of Service, Mr Samuel Ayanleye Aina confirmed the approval of the March salaries, pension and palliatives, noting that the fast tracked approval covered all categories of state and local government employees including tertiary institutions in the State.

“I can confirm that Mr Governor has approved the March salaries, pension and palliative wage awards, including the usual payment of the outstanding half salary for retirees under the contributory pension scheme yet to obtain their bonds. Mr Governor requested for the file and granted immediate approval.

“Any moment from now, alerts will be landing in our peoples’ accounts. This is a preemptive step on the part of Mr Governor to meet the needs of our people”, the Head of Service explained.

Governor Adeleke who has been hosting inter faith leaders at the Government House said he approved the early payment to ease the burden of the workers ahead of the Easter period.

“As I wish muslim and christian faithfuls blessed fasting season, the early payment is a gesture of support for workers whose welfare remains the number one priority of our administration”, the Governor noted.

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FG Announces Nine Individuals, Six BDCs Financing Terrorism

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The Federal Government says it has uncovered the identity of 15 entities, including nine individuals and six Bureau De Change operators and firms, allegedly involved in terrorism financing.

Details of the development were revealed by the Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit, in an email seen by The Punch on Tuesday night, entitled “Designation of Individuals and Entities for March 18, 2024.”

The document revealed that the Nigeria Sanctions Committee met on March 18, 2024, where specific individuals and entities were recommended for sanction following their involvement in terrorism financing.

“The Honourable Attorney General of the Federation, with the approval of the President, has thereupon designated the following individuals and entities to be listed on the Nigeria Sanctions List,” the document read in part.

Among the individuals named in the document was a Kaduna-based publisher, Tukur Mamu, who is currently being tried by the Federal Government for allegedly aiding the terrorists who attacked the Abuja-Kaduna train in March 2022.

According to the document, Mamu “participated in the financing of terrorism by receiving and delivering ransom payments over the sum of $200,000 US in support of ISWAP terrorists for the release of hostages of the Abuja-Kaduna train attack.”

The document said one of the individuals is “the suspected attacker of the St. Francis Catholic Church Owo, Ondo State on June 5, 2022 and the Kuje Correctional Center, Abuja on July 5, 2022.”

Another was described as “a member of the terrorist group Ansarul Muslimina Fi Biladissudam, the group is associated with Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb.

 “The subject was trained and served under Muktar Belmokhtar, aka One Eyed Out, led Al-Murabtoun Katibat of AQIM in Algeria and Mali.”

The NFIU said the individual “specialises in designing terrorist clandestine communication code and he is also Improvised Explosive Device expert.

“The subject was also a gate keeper to ANSARU leader, Mohammed Usman aka Khalid Al-Bamawi. Equally, he was a courier and travel guide to AQIM Katibat in the desert of Algeria and Mali. He is into carpentry. Subject fled Kuje correctional centre on July 5, 2022. He is currently at large.”

Another was identified as “a senior commander of the Islamic State of West Africa Province Okene.”

The agency said, the individual “came into limelight in 2012 as North Central wing of Boko Haram.

“The group is suspected of the attacks carried out around Federal Capital Territory and the South West Geographical Zone, including the June 5, 2022 attack on St. Francis Catholic Church, Owo, Ondo State.”

Another was described as “a financial courier to ISWAP Okene. She is responsible for the disbursement of funds to the widows/wives of the terrorist fighters of the group.”

According to the document, another of the individuals “in 2015, transferred N60m to terrorism convicts.”

He was also said to have “received a sum of N189m  between 2016 and 2018.”

The same person is said to “own entities and business reported in the UAE court judgment as facilitating the transfer of terrorist funds from Dubai to Nigeria.”

Another individual was said to have “received a total of N57m from between 2014 and 2017.”

Another was said to have “had a total inflow of N61.4 bn and a total outflow of N51.7bn from his accounts.”

The document further revealed that, in accordance with Section 54 of the Terrorism (Prevention and Prohibition) Act, 2022, institutions and individuals are required to:

“(a) immediately, identify and freeze, without prior notice, all funds, assets, and any other economic resources belonging to the designated persons and entities in your possession and report same to the Sanctions Committee;

“(b) report to the Sanctions Committee any assets frozen or actions taken in compliance with the prohibition requirements.

“(c) immediately file a Suspicious Transactions Report to the NFIU for further analysis on the financial activities of such an individual or entity; and

“(d) report as a Suspicious Transactions Report to the NFIU, all cases of name matching in financial transactions prior to or after receipt of this List. ”

It said the “The freezing obligation required above shall extend to

“(a) all funds or other assets that are owned or controlled by the designated persons and entities, and not only those that are tied to a particular act, plot, or threat of terrorism or terrorism financing;

“(b) those funds or other assets that are wholly or jointly owned or controlled, directly or indirectly, by designated persons or entities;

“(c) the funds or other assets derived or generated from funds or other assets owned or controlled directly or indirectly by designated persons or entities; and

“(d) funds or other assets of persons and entities acting on behalf of, or at the direction of designated persons or entities.”

The Punch

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