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…Elections Will Test Nigeria’s Democracy…What The Economist Said of Nigeria’s 2015 Election

Published

5 years ago

February 23, 2019

Eric

The national and state elections due to begin in Nigeria on March 28th are likely to be the closest and most fiercely contested since the restoration of democracy in Africa’s most populous nation in 1999. There is a lack of confidence in the poll organisers, concern about the volatile environment in which voting will take place and anxiety about the undemocratic and belligerent tendencies of Nigerian politicians. It is virtually impossible to envisage an outcome to the election period that does not involve significant instability. Although we think Nigeria will just about negotiate the election period without a complete breakdown in security, there is a real possibility that the instability will be serious enough to break Nigeria’s democracy, or even split the country apart.

The run-up to the vote has been intense with provocative campaigning by politicians in both the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the main opposition, the All Progressives Congress (APC). Cause for concern has also come from the poor preparation by the Independent National Election Commission (INEC) for the crucial polls, which has undermined public confidence in the state agency’s ability to conduct smooth and fair voting in presidential and National Assembly polls on March 28th, followed by governorship and state assembly ballots on April 11th. A six-week postponement of the elections, announced a week before the original February 14th start date, stemmed from security concerns, particularly the Islamist insurgency in the north-east, and also INEC’s failure to distribute sufficient numbers of electoral cards to voters on time. The unease and apprehension has also affected the financial markets where share prices have been subdued and the Nigerian currency, the naira, has taken a battering as investors feel nervous about the impact of the ensuing power struggle on the stability of Africa’s largest economy.

Election-related instability is not a new phenomenon

Pre-elections jitters are not new in Nigeria. Virtually every major election in the country since independence from the UK in 1960 was preceded by some level of political turmoil, often owing to grandstanding by rent-seeking politicians. Furthermore, the nation’s electoral agency has on most voting occasions shown an incredible lack of preparedness, which in 2011 resulted in a week-long postponement of the polls, announced on the day voting was supposed to start. In addition, the aftermath of every major election has featured allegations of rigging and fraud, as well as some violence, which led to military coups in 1966 and 1983; and rioting that cost hundreds of lives in 2011.

Despite the drama and mayhem that have accompanied the four general elections held so far under the Fourth Republic, this current period of civilian governance has survived and arguably become more resilient and adept at weathering political storms. Indeed, this 15-year-old civilian republic has lasted longer than the preceding spell of army rule, although overall Nigeria has still been under military rule for more years than it has enjoyed democracy.

The stakes are higher than usual

Nonetheless, a number of factors make this year’s elections riskier than previous ones. This is the first time that the ruling party, which has won every presidential vote since 1999, faces an opposition that has broad support and reasonable prospects of victory. PDP candidates easily won past presidential contests, largely because they faced challengers who lacked broad support across Nigeria’s diverse ethnic and regional groupings. However, a former military ruler, Muhammadu Buhari, the candidate of the APC making his fourth consecutive attempt at the presidency, should this time benefit from the wider support of a party created in 2013 from a merger of three main opposition parties, with the prime purpose of wresting power from the PDP. Mr Buhari, a northern Muslim, took 32% of the overall vote in 2011, sweeping the largely Muslim north-west and north-east but performing poorly in the predominately Christian south. On March 28th the 72‑year‑old retired general is likely to do well in the south-west, a stronghold of one of the parties that make-up the APC, and do better in parts of the south-east. As for the 57‑year‑old president, Goodluck Jonathan, a southern Christian who won 59% of the 2011 vote, he is likely to once again get the support of his kinsmen in the oil-producing south and probably maintain strong performances in the south-east and in the ethnically mixed north-central zones. However, it is unclear to what extent the emergence of the APC alliance will erode his support in south-west, where in the past many voters have opted for opposition candidates in state elections while casting for the ruling party in the presidential ballot.

As with the 2011 elections, the 2015 polls are taking place against the background of the insurgency of Boko Haram, a Sunni Islamist fundamentalist group seeking to carve out an Islamic state in northern Nigeria. But the group has become stronger and poses a greater threat to democracy than it did four years ago. The mayhem it has caused in the north-east, including capturing several towns and villages, has raised doubts about the possibility of holding free elections in the worst-affected parts of the north-east. Since the postponement of the polls in mid-February, the Nigerian military, with the assistance of troops from Niger, Cameroon and Chad, have pushed to retake most of the territories under the militants’ control. Nonetheless, the security situation in the region remains precarious, with militants probably still able to strike with guerrilla attacks during the elections and to exacerbate any post-election violence in the country.

Neither side will willingly concede defeat

The flipside of concerns about Boko Haram and fears of a repeat of rioting in the north if Mr Buhari loses on March 28th is worry about a resurgence of ethnic nationalist militancy in the oil-producing Niger Delta if Mr Jonathan is defeated. Militants, who waged armed struggles for local control of mineral resources up until 2009, have threatened to resume their insurgency in the event of a Buhari presidency. Threats made by hardliners on both sides of the political divide to unleash catastrophe if their side loses is probably mostly sabre rattling that has come to be associated with election seasons in Nigeria. Nonetheless, the stakes are high. If Mr Buhari suffers a fourth presidential election defeat, he will probably not get another chance to achieve his ambition of returning to power through the ballot box. The retired general’s supporters will be less likely to accept defeat graciously if, as widely expected, the results of his latest bid for power are close, even if the courts back the PDP victory. On the other hand, if Mr Jonathan is defeated, Nigeria may enter uncharted territory, in which the ruling party, still in control of the state security apparatus, disputes the outcome of the presidential election.

There is not a feasible scenario in which Nigeria avoids significant post-election unrest. The question is over the magnitude of that unrest. Nigeria has shown a high threshold for remaining intact through previous periods of significant instability and this will probably remain true this time. However, the risk of a more substantial breakdown—precipitating a period of ungovernability, a coup or even civil war—are the highest of any time since the return to civilian rule in 1999.

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Kwibuka 30: Nigerian Community In Rwanda Visits Kigali Genocide Memorial

Published

16 hours ago

April 22, 2024

Eric

By Dolapo Aina

The 30th Commemoration of the 1994 Genocide Against The Tutsi commenced in Rwanda on Sunday, April 7, 2024. The commemoration is called Kwibuka which in Kinyarwanda means “to remember.”
For clarity and context, April 7th 2024 marked the start of Kwibuka 30, the 30th commemoration of the Genocide against the Tutsi, which began on April 7th 1994. As with other commemorations, the Kigali Genocide Memorial was a focal point as the flame of remembrance was lit and global dignitaries placed wreaths at the mass graves. The memorial is normally closed to the public for part of the day on April 7th, with attendance at the lighting of the flame by invitation only.
In and around Kigali during the first week of the commemoration, a plethora of commemorations took place to mark Kwibuka 30 and different events took place during its first week in particular. Bars, clubs and public leisure facilities are usually closed for the week and this was so, this year.
The Nigerian Community in Rwanda marked Kwibuka 30 with a walk to the Kigali Genocide Memorial on Saturday, the 13th of April 2024. The walk had members (old, new and friends) of the Nigerian Community who gathered in the rain and walked to the location of the Kigali Genocide Memorial in Gisozi where the remains of over 250,000 people are interred.
A tour of the memorial complex ensued and the members of the Nigerian community watched a documentary in the viewing room. The documentary featured survivors of the 1994 Genocide Against The Tutsi who usually visit the memorial to pay their silent respect and reflections to loved ones who are buried in the burial grounds of the Genocide Memorial.
Walking through the hallways and rooms, Nigerians read the stories on the hallways and discussed amongst themselves. For some, it was their first time at the memorial, for others, it was the umpteenth visit. For Dolapo Aina, I have been visiting the memorial since April 2014 and for each visit (numbering close to 70 visits), I come out with a newer and clearer understanding. It was a sombre period going through the hallways and rooms as some people could not go through the emotions of going into the children’s room. Wreaths were laid at the grave site section and the members of the Nigerian community proceeded to a serene area of the complex facing the amphitheatre where there was a deep hour conversation with one of the officials of the Kigali Genocide Memorial.
Mr Jean Claude Mugisha (an official of the memorial in Gisozi) practically took the Nigerian community through the genesis of the history of Rwanda and the beginning of pogroms from the 1950s culminating in the 1994 Genocide Against The Tutsi. In Mr Mugabe words; “I have been able to forgive. Also, I am involved in unity and reconciliation activities and learning from the power of forgiveness.” Discussions also centred on justice systems, the role of Gacaca court system, reconciliation and nation building. Members of the Nigerian Community asked questions which were answered. Some of the questions triggered areas of collaboration.
Dolapo Aina got the thoughts of some Nigerians resident in Rwanda and who took part in the walk to the Genocide Memorial. Their responses were based on the following questions. Why did you partake in the walk organised by the Nigerian Community in Rwanda to commemorate Kwibuka 30? What was the experience like? Do describe your thoughts when you visited the Genocide Memorial? What stood out to you from the conversation the Nigerian Community had with officials of the Kigali Genocide Memorial? What lessons did you learn from the visit of the Nigerian Community to the Genocide Memorial?
Mr David Oboh in his words; “I partook in the walk to identify with a nation that experienced one of the worst crimes to humanity but today has become a beacon of hope to African nations that things can actually turn around for the better if you decide to. It was heart-wrenching seeing the bones and pictures of the victims murdered in cold blood by family members, neighbours and long-time friends.” On the third question about what stood out during the conversation, Mr Oboh said; “That a man after 15 years in jail came out and still committed murder because he thought he had killed everyone in a family. His mind had not left the past.” He also stated that; “The memorial is a reminder to all that history not forgotten cannot be repeated.”
In Ms. Mercy Odebode’s words: “It not my first time visiting the memorial but this was a different experience for me because it made me realise why Rwandans tend to certain things and also don’t do certain things. For example, viewing religions especially religious institutions like the church differently from the way Nigerians would view it.” She stated that what stood out for her was: “The peace education stood out for me.” On lessons learnt from the visit by the Nigerian community; “First spread peace and not hate. Secondly, forgiveness is not an obligation, you choose to forgive. However, it is good to educate people about forgiveness, educate to forgive and then you proceed with reconciliation.”
Mr. Ogah Ogbole stated that: “The walk by the Nigerian community is something I would not want to miss anytime. I have the opportunity to do so with my fellow countrymen. My experience visiting the memorial and my thoughts can be summed up as ⁠heartbreaking to see fellow Africans killed in cold blood, by their own brothers. Something must have gone wrong somewhere. What stood out for me during the conversation with the officials of the memorial was that Rwandans understand history; they know how to resolve conflict and they know how to move forward. And I learnt to love my brother and my neighbour. More especially, seeing the Rwandans committed to remain one despite the 1994 Genocide Against the Tutsi blows my mind.”
Another Nigerian, Mr Kelechi Anyanwu stated that: “Partaking in the walk organised by Nigerian Community in Rwanda to commemorate Kwibuka 30 is a civic responsibility which I owe the host country; to stand in solidarity with them at this time of remembrance and in all times. I have visited the genocide memorial site more than 20 times within the short period that I’ve lived here in Rwanda. And every time I visit, I weep. Never will I stop visiting because it offers and brings me close to the reality of sober reflection that one day we shall all be gone and will only be remembered by those we left behind and how we left, will matter. Did we impact their lives positively or negatively? What will you be remembered for?”
On the experience and thoughts about visiting, Mr Anyanwu went thus: “It is also a constant reminder of how desperately wicked people’s hearts can be. With few exceptions. Lions, the king of the jungle don’t kill lions even as animals. Howbeit human beings with 6th sense got to the level of committing such crime against humanity! Therefore, visiting the Genocide memorial site is to provoke the whys and hows and arrive at a conclusion of never again should we condole or tolerate the killing of each other. Let’s love and not hate. The tour and the speech by the officials were quite insightful and significant as it left us with a better understanding of the effects of genocidal damage to humanity. The process of restoration. restitution, rehabilitation and reuniting to rebuild a nation for all; are the testaments of genocide survivors.”

Another Nigerian, Mr Cosmas Anakwue stated; “I took part in the walk to support the Nigerian community and to support Rwanda’s commemoration of Kwibuka 30. My experience at the memorial was good as it was an eye opener; it was informative and educational. What stood out for me was the attention given to the Genocide events and how we can relate it to our history as Nigerians. And one of the lessons I learnt was that we should use our bad history as a building block for our various nations in unity, peace and progress.
According to Kwibuka Rwanda, Kwibuka marks a generational cycle since The Genocide Against The Tutsi was put to an end. And it is a time to reflect on Rwanda’s journey of rebuilding strength, resilience, and unity. It now falls to new generations to sustain and carry forward this progress, adapting to today’s global challenges to achieve Rwanda’s aspirations.
The Nigerian Community in Rwanda commenced commemorating Kwibuka with a walk to the Genocide memorial in 2019.

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Connect Initiative To Celebrate Gov. Umo Eno’s 60th Birthday With Empowerment Programme

Published

2 days ago

April 21, 2024

Eric

Connect Initiative, a socio-political group of entrepreneurs and professionals is set to commemorate the 60th birthday of Akwa Ibom State Governor, Pastor Umo Eno by empowering 60 vulnerable people from across the 31 Local Government Areas of the state.

The empowerment programme scheduled to hold in Uyo, the State capital on Tuesday, April 23, 2024 would witness the group presenting financial support to the beneficiaries.

According to a statement by the Connect Council“ Knowing full well His Excellency’s modest and humble disposition, we totally agree with his decision not to throw any huge party when many of our people are struggling to meet their basic needs, which has led the state government to establish the Bulk Purchase Agency and introduce a Food Sufficiency Intervention Programme which involves the distribution of free staple foodstuff: rice, beans and garri.

“For us at Connect Initiative, we believe we should support this noble vision of giving a boost to people at the grassroots. We believe that by helping these people develop, the beneficiaries can gain the power to sustain their livelihoods, achieve self-sufficiency and also contribute their quota to the development of our dear state.

The Council further stated “Governor Umo Eno has been in the forefront of efforts engendering business and economic growth with the creation of different initiatives including the establishment of the Ibom Leadership and Entrepreneurial Centre (Ibom-LED) aimed at cutting down poverty figures and providing unique opportunities for youths interested in making a career of their talents, thus his idea of not feeding them fish but teaching them how to fish is commendable.

Connect Initiative which was one of the groups that campaigned vigorously for Governor Umo Eno at the last gubernatorial election noted that in line with its pay-off line “connecting the dots”, it would henceforth be linking government’s programmes to the people at the grassroots with innovative and value-added projects that would have direct impact on the people.

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How Atiku, Others Prevented Implosion of PDP at NEC Meeting – Ex-Rep Dagogo

Published

2 days ago

April 21, 2024

Eric

A former member of the National Assembly from Rivers State, Dagogo Farah, has said but for the political maturity and sagacity employed by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, and other leaders, the Peoples Democratic Party would have “‘played into the hands of some individuals, who wanted it to implode to improve their political fortunes at its 98th National Executive Committee, NEC meeting on Thursday.

Dagogo, who described Atiku as the National Leader of the party said this while describing the outcome of the NEC meeting as another demonstration of the resilience of the party to weather any storm that comes its way.

Dagogo who represented the Degema-Bonny federal constituency in the House of Representatives noted that that in the build up to the NEC Meeting, suggestions and permutations had been rife of the likelihood of the PDP running into another round of crises as the party tries to navigate a path for the North Central Zone to produce a substantive National Chairman to complete the truncated tenure of former Chairman, Dr. Iyorchia Ayu.

Dagogo was quoted in press statement issued by his media aide, Ibrahim Lawal, Dagogo as saying this while speaking on the sidelines of the NEC meeting that saw Umar Damagum retaining his position as the Party’s Acting National Chairman until the subsequent NEC meeting scheduled for August.

The former lawmaker pointed out that those who genuinely have the best interests of the PDP at heart made timely sacrifices to keep the party firm and afloat.

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According to him, for the political maturity and sagacity employed by the Party’s National Leader and Former Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, along other leaders, before and during the NEC Meeting, the party would have “‘played into the hands of some individuals, who wanted the party to implode in order to improve their political fortunes”‘.

He expressed optimism that by the adjourned date of August, Damagum would have seen that “it is in the best interest of the party for him to vacate the position for a more purposeful and result oriented leadership”.

” For me, the outcome of the NEC Meeting was a win-win situation. Against all odds, the party came out unscathed and will continue to wax stronger. Yes, the Acting Chairman retained his position, but it is obvious to him now and others that it would be in the best interest of the party for him to vacate that position for a more purposeful and result oriented leadership by August.

Dagogo further said that “The so called tension generated in the build up of the NEC meeting was actually orchestrated by the inordinate desire of some few individuals who wanted to thwart the sterling call by party faithful for a review of its failing leadership and directionless.

“The Party however did not play into the hands of those individuals, who wanted the party to implode in order to improve their political fortunes, thanks in good measure to the political maturity and sagacity employed by the Party’s National Leader and Former Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, along other leaders, before and during the NEC Meeting. We are where we now because of their sacrifices and dedication to the party, ” he added.