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Pendulum: Between Buhari and Atiku, My Candid Forecast

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By Dele Momodu

Fellow Nigerians, let me say how excited I am that the Nigerian Presidential election is barely two weeks away. Naturally, nothing dominates the news here than the topic of who is likely to win. I have no power of clairvoyance, but I have some modest and sufficient experience about Nigeria’s political history as well as world politics. This is the reason I often attempt to analyse and dissect the chances of the main candidates. Every candidate counts in an election of this nature. I’m forever proud of my decision to participate in 2011. Contrary to what many have said or written about me, I actually expected a miracle to happen and my extraordinary confidence must have been bolstered by the sheer audacity of Barack Obama who took on the humongous American establishment, and stubborn status quo, and tore them to shreds. The same spirit must be the one propelling some of our friends and compatriots, Fela Durotoye, Oby Ezekwezili, Tanko Yunusa, Omoyele Sowore, Donald Duke, Eunice Atuejide, Alistair Soyode, Kingsley Moghalu, Tope Fasua, and others (not in any particular order).

 

The lesson I learnt from that 2011 experiment will live with me forever. The first is that Nigeria must find a way to return to a two-party system. Our young candidates would have better chances if they emerged from mainstream parties. It would have been a straight fight between, perhaps, an older candidate and a youthful one. I believe, this must be the reason Alhaji Atiku Abubakar promptly cashed in on that punchline when he described himself as the bridge between the old and the young. And if you watched the interview conducted by the strong lady, Kadaira Ahmed, with Atiku and Peter Obi, the difference was clear. Atiku looked more energetic, mentally alert, eloquent, knowledgeable, presentable, exposed, cosmopolitan and business-like notwithstanding the fact that he s only a few years younger than the President. I told some of my friends that night that if you give Buhari four terms, nothing would move because he would sit down in one position bemoaning the past and seeing future enemies. The stultification of Nigeria in the last four years is not as a result of PDP’s prodigality of the previous 16 years, but because of the sluggishness, taciturnity, clannishness, vindictiveness, obstinacy, and crass ignorance of many members of the Buhari cabal and cult.

 

There is nothing APC has not done to rewrite history. Their present supporters are the rudest humans I have ever encountered. They are incapable of any logical or superior argument. They are rigidly programmed to see anyone not in their camp as a thief and looter, as if that is all there is to governance. Atiku was able to point this out during the Kadaria encounter, when he boldly declared that rather than waste resources and precious time on chasing a few rats, he would consider granting amnesty to some of the looters as a quicker resolution and foreclosure to the unfortunate saga. Nearly 21 years after the death of General Sani Abacha, Nigeria is yet to fully recover all the alleged fortune in foreign lands. The money is not useful to Nigeria in foreign coffers. Some people disagreed with Atiku’s strategy for fighting corruption, but they forgot that it is foolhardy to grant amnesty to terrorists and murderers and refuse to consider same for pen robbers. The tragedy of Buhari’s entrenched position is that he and his disciples are not business-like. Everything must be fought as a jihad when some of the problems require tact and common sense.

 

I’m confident to say Buhari has not won new fans in the last four years, or better put, he has lost far more than he has gained, if any at all.

 

This election would be fought on several fronts. The first is funding. Atiku will never be able to compete on this account. Buhari is certainly not like former President Jonathan who was more democratically relaxed and thus allowed Buhari to campaign and roam freely. But for Atiku’s courage and extensive contact and global network, his campaign would have collapsed ages ago. Buhari and his people must be worried about how Atiku has managed to run such an efficient campaign filled with substance, entertainment and excitement. While the APC Chairman, Adams Oshiomhole, and others continue to abuse PDP and even members of their own party, Atiku and company cannot be seen attacking people. The melodious and mellifluous campaign song of Atikulation is catching on sporadically on social media. The infighting in APC should be cause for alarm. Things are falling apart in so many states and Buhari has not demonstrated enough capacity to reconcile his party. Except a miracle happens, APC is not likely to field candidates in several states of the Federation.

 

Next is ethnicity. This will play a major role in the imminent General elections. It appears that Buhari has walked into a major trap this time around. Unlike his pan-Nigerian outlook in 2015, he has atrociously become the most clannish leader in Nigeria’s contemporary history. For a man nursing a second term ambition, it is strange and inconceivable that he would throw caution to the winds the way he did when he carried his Fulanisation of Nigeria to bizarre levels. He should have known that when tomorrow comes, his perceived actions would come back to haunt and torment him. Except for his die-hard supporters, it would be difficult, if not impossible, for Buhari to say he is the true father of the nation when he has blatantly refused to embrace everyone. The interesting thing is that an in-depth analysis might show that there is a balancing exercise over time, but the nature and manner of the appointments Buhari has made is what leaves much to be desired and is particularly galling.

 

Once upon a time, Buhari enjoyed a cult-like followership in several parts of Nigeria, especially, in the North West and North East. I believe he still does, but not on the scale he did in the past. I predict a substantial reduction in his votes in key States that he could afford to take for granted in the past. I will start with the massive State of Kano. Say what you will, former Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso, will chip off a minimum 40 percent of Buhari’s previous votes in Kano, that is if not up to 50 percent. Those who claim Buhari is invincible may be right to some extent, but he lost some precious diamond the day APC allowed the iroko tree called Rabiu Kwankwaso to quit APC. This development will plague Buhari in this election.

 

I will say President Buhari reached the peak of his glory and popularity in 2015. For the first time, he was able to secure the support of so many who had written him off in the past as being too old and archaic. The hatred for PDP and its leadership blinded many of us from seeing all the warts we had complained about and Buhari became our new bride. Despite the blistering campaign for Buhari nationwide and the alliances formed between the powerful forces that combined to form APC, and some noticeable, but studiously ignored infractions during the election, the difference in votes between Buhari and Jonathan was under three million. Buhari’s popularity has since dwindled dramatically since then. APC chieftains know within them that they are currently on a very difficult mission to bring Buhari back to power. They are aware that he has become too old and tired and sickly, but they are goading him on for their personal survival. This explains all the moves to urgently take over other arms of government that are likely to make things difficult if they need to perform some magic like they did in Osun State recently.

 

My first forecast is that Buhari will win many States in the North West, but not with the kind of margin that he had in 2015. Atiku will challenge him big time in Sokoto, Kebbi, Zamfara, Kano, Kaduna and even Katsina. It was easier for Buhari in 2015 because he contested against a Southerner, but this time around, Atiku is as Fulani as they come. Not just that, Atiku has structures and he’s been in the race for over 25 years and thus built many bridges and made strong connections with a veritably formidable network of friends and associates. Buhari used to do very well in the North East, especially in Bauchi, but it should be noted that, this time around, Atiku is from the North East and he would put up a major fight in his territory. Buhari may still have a slight edge, here and there, but nothing monumental enough to shake Atiku.

 

Atiku will perform better than Buhari in the North Central. This may help him cancel some deficit he may have acquired in the North West and North East. Atiku is likely to obliterate Buhari in the South East and South South, the traditional enclave of PDP. South East offers a unique advantage because Atiku’s Vice President candidate comes from here as well as Atiku’s adorable wife, Jennifer. But since every vote for Atiku is badly needed, he would have to find a way to galvanise people of his catchment area to come out to vote and defend their votes. The South West is a bit dicey for both Buhari and Atiku. Buhari’s Vice President, Professor Yemi Osinbajo comes from this zone and he is well loved by his people though many have complained that Buhari has handed too much power to his cabal instead of empowering this cerebral, refined, hardworking and meticulous gentleman who has shown a capacity and ability to galvanise and unify Nigeria. However, Atiku’s matronly wife, Titi, also comes from this zone which further complicates the equation because she is also well loved by women who feel she performed well as wife of the Vice President, from 1999-2007. I still expect APC to defeat PDP in this zone even though the margin of victory may be slender.

As the Economist has predicted once again, I see a tight race but a slim victory that would make Atiku Abubakar the next President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

We wait with bated breath!

OXFORD UNIVERSITY, HERE I COME

At the end of January, I received wonderful news regarding my application for admission to the African Studies Centre of the University of Oxford. As everyone who follows me knows, academia is my first love. My dream was always to be a teacher and once I stepped into the hallowed precincts of Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, then known as University of Ife, it was love at first sight with academics. The love fest was complete as I walked into the sanctuary of books at the University Library where I worked from 1977-78 and my passion for reading simply exploded. I knew that this was what I had been made for, and my career in journalism has merely been a rite of passage towards the achievement and fulfilment of my quest for the knowledge that comes from reading and academics.

And so, it was with great joy, elation and excitement that I received the letter from the Director of The African Studies Centre, and The Rhodes Professor of Race Relations at the Oxford School of Global and Area Studies, Professor Wale Adebanwi, informing me that at the instance of the University of Oxford, United Kingdom, I had been approved as an Academic Visitor at the African Studies Centre of Oxford University. Professor Adebanwi wrote:

“I am happy to inform you that the Management Committee of the African Studies Centre, University of Oxford, UK, has approved your request for an Academic Visitor status at the Centre in the Hillary and Trinity Terms, 2019 – that is, between February and July 2019.

Oxford University’s African Studies Centre (see: http://www.africanstudies.ox.ac.uk/) is one of the world’s leading centres of African Studies. The Centre is the focal point for graduate level work and faculty research on Africa. Alongside a vibrant doctoral (DPhil) programme, the MSc in African Studies, inaugurated in 2006, is already recognised as one of Europe’s most prestigious and most successful training programmes in its field. We have trained graduate students who are now holding important positions in different spheres of social, economic and political life in Africa and the rest of the world.

We note that during your fellowship at the Centre, you plan to work on a book manuscript based on your experiences as a journalist, writer, publisher and social media activist entitled, “Celebrity Journalism and the Social Media in Contemporary Africa.”

We will expect you to present aspects of your work at a seminar before the end of your fellowship.

We look forward to hosting you. And we hope your time at Oxford will be mutually rewarding.”

It is my aim to utilise my rare combined degrees – a first degree in Yoruba from the University of Ife (now known as Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife) and a Master’s degree in Literature-in-English – to craft a biography of my journey through the world of journalism, politics and social activism.

Since I announced that I was going to be working on this book manuscript at Oxford University, my teeming readers and supporters have been asking about the fate of this Column.  I wish to assure everybody including all my regular readers and fans that this Column will continue to appear regularly and will not be prejudiced, but rather enhanced, by my new adventure.

I hope you will all join me as I start another phase of my life and pray for the success of this new endeavour.

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KFC Reacts As FAAN Shuts Down Its Operations in Lagos Airport

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The Management of Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC) has reacted to the Federal Airport Authority of Nigeria (FAAN)’s move to shut down its branch at the Muritala Muhammed Airport, for violating laws protecting the rights of people with special needs.

The action was confirmed through a statement released on Thursday by FAAN’s Director of Public Affairs and Consumer Protection, Obiageli Orah.

The official statement, titled ‘FAAN shuts down KFC outlet at MMIA,’ highlighted that the closure was in response to the outlet’s breach of the Lagos State law on People with Special Needs, specifically referencing Part C, Section 55 of the General Provisions on Discrimination.

Responding to the development, KFC posted on its official X account that it opposes bias and discrimination, stressing that the incident did not reflect its standards.

The organisation disclosed that it had embarked on efforts to address the situation and urgently implemented sensitivity training for all its employees.

The statement read, “KFC is unwavering in our stance against bias or discrimination in any form, with inclusivity and respect as non-negotiable pillars of our values.

“However, this recent incident has underscored the pressing need for immediate action. We have embarked on efforts to address the situation and extend apologies and deeply regret the frustration and distress experienced by our guest.

“In response, we are urgently implementing sensitivity training for all our employees. This incident is not reflective of our standards, and we will act swiftly to rectify it.

“We are actively exploring solutions to equip our team members and establishments better to ensure that every guest feels genuinely welcomed and that we deliver empathetic customer service that proactively addresses the diverse needs of each guest.”

KFC had during the week, denied Adebola Daniel, son of former Ogun State Governor, Gbenga Daniel, access to their facility at the Muritala Muhammed International Airport  because of his disability.

Daniel had recounted his experience at the KFC outlet of the airport in a series of tweets posted on Wednesday via his X handle, @DebolaDaniel.

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Ezekiel Bolarinwa Ajayi: Mentor, Philanthropist Revels at 80

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By Eric Elezuo

The ancient town of Ile-Ife was agog weekend, when Professor Ezekiel Bolarinwa Oladele Ajayi, a renowned educationist, accomplished mentor and elder brother of veteran journalist, Dele Momodu, pulled all the stops to mark a resounding entry into the octogenarian club, celebrating his 80th birthday with fanfare, pomp and class.

The event, which attracted family members, colleagues in the academic world, friends and well wishers, was another testament in the expression of influence, clout and connection.

Held at the Rock Rehoboth Cathedral in the centre of Ile-Ife, the event brought out the best in the Stanford trained PHD holder, as beamed with contagious smiles, absorbing accolades from a crowd of well wishers and dignitaries, most of whom traveled half  way across the world to felicitate with the newest octogenarian.

A lavished reception followed after heartfelt prayers were said for the celebrant flanked by his wife of many years, children and grandchildren. The reception witnessed guests savoring the best of continental and local delicacies as well as dancing happily to the old school tunes.

The highpoint of the event was the cutting of the gigantic cake by the birthday boy around whom were dotting family members.

As guests expressed their profound, hearty and sincere congratulations towards the octogenarian, whose event changed the landscape of Ife, many recalled how they have come a long way from their very humble beginning in Gbongan Olufi.

Fondly called Ladele, Prof Ajayi was born on March 23, 1944 in Gbongan, Osun State, where he had his earliest beginnings.

He statted his education at the Saint Paul’s School Gbongan, before moving on to Saint Judes School, Ebute Metta, and later to Saint Stephens School, Ile-Ife, where he completed his primary education.

After his elementary education, he was admitted into the Government College lbadan, where he was described as having  ‘passed out in exceedingly bright colours’. As many that knows him has confirmed that Prof Ajayi was a walking encyclopedia, and vibrated with intelligence while at school.

It was not therefore, surprising that he later proceeded to the United States of America, after his secondary education, where he attended various prestigious Universities including Stanford University. It is worthy of note that all his appearances for university education were on different scholarships. It was also at Stanford that he bagged his PhD honours.

On the completion of his PhD programme in Stanford, Prof Ajayi was recruited by the University of Ife, as it was then known, before its transmutation to Obafemi Awolowo University, where he later became a Professor of Physics, a position he jealousy guarded until retirement from active classroom duties.

According to a very close family member and confidant, Bola Adeyemo, who spoke glowingly about their fond relationship, Prof Ajayi “also became active in things of God. Like a proverbial gold fish, he has been recognized as a Pastor. Ladele played a mentoring role in the final years of school for my twin daughters who both graduated from the medicine program in the same University.

“The mutual fondness between Ladele and I remains very much intact. Ladele and l share common ancestry. His father who was the Otun Olufi of Gɓongan was a much older cousin to my mother and was fondly referred to as baba mi ile ASORO. They both had the same tribal marks. Ladele can be classified as belonging to the royal class as his father was the OTUN OLUFI while his mother was the daughter of the ÒOSA, first class chief in Gbongan.”

A life of Prof Ajayi without a mention of prolific publisher of the Ovation brands,  Chief Momodu, remains incomplete. It is worthy of note that apart from both sharing the same mum as siblings, the Prof was instrumental in shaping and mentally mentoring Momodu on the path of education. His 80th birthday was a reminder of how it used to be in times past as it marks a form of reunion for the Ajayi extended household.

Among those who attended were his daughter, Kemi Ajayi-Ingram, who flew in all the way from the United States of America, with her entire family; his niece, Yejide Ajayi among a host of others.

We wish the ebullient octogenarian a splendid birthday, and many ore years of splendid celebrations.

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Easter, Ramadan: Adeleke Releases March Salaries, Pension, Palliatives, Approves Promotion for Personnel

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Osun State Governor, Ademola Adeleke, has approved the release of salaries, pensions and palliatives for the month of March for all public servants in the state, as well as approved the promotion of service personnel due for promotion from 2023.

Adeleke’s show of love for the entire workforce, is in spite of the fact that the State allocation from the Federation account is yet to be released, according to a statement signed by the governor’s spokesperson, Mallam Olawale Rasheed.

The Head of Service, Mr Samuel Ayanleye Aina confirmed the approval of the March salaries, pension and palliatives, noting that the fast tracked approval covered all categories of state and local government employees including tertiary institutions in the State.

“I can confirm that Mr Governor has approved the March salaries, pension and palliative wage awards, including the usual payment of the outstanding half salary for retirees under the contributory pension scheme yet to obtain their bonds. Mr Governor requested for the file and granted immediate approval.

“Any moment from now, alerts will be landing in our peoples’ accounts. This is a preemptive step on the part of Mr Governor to meet the needs of our people”, the Head of Service explained.

Governor Adeleke who has been hosting inter faith leaders at the Government House said he approved the early payment to ease the burden of the workers ahead of the Easter period.

“As I wish muslim and christian faithfuls blessed fasting season, the early payment is a gesture of support for workers whose welfare remains the number one priority of our administration”, the Governor noted.

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