Headline

Pendulum: Between Buhari and Atiku, My Candid Forecast

Published

5 years ago

February 2, 2019

Eric

By Dele Momodu

Fellow Nigerians, let me say how excited I am that the Nigerian Presidential election is barely two weeks away. Naturally, nothing dominates the news here than the topic of who is likely to win. I have no power of clairvoyance, but I have some modest and sufficient experience about Nigeria’s political history as well as world politics. This is the reason I often attempt to analyse and dissect the chances of the main candidates. Every candidate counts in an election of this nature. I’m forever proud of my decision to participate in 2011. Contrary to what many have said or written about me, I actually expected a miracle to happen and my extraordinary confidence must have been bolstered by the sheer audacity of Barack Obama who took on the humongous American establishment, and stubborn status quo, and tore them to shreds. The same spirit must be the one propelling some of our friends and compatriots, Fela Durotoye, Oby Ezekwezili, Tanko Yunusa, Omoyele Sowore, Donald Duke, Eunice Atuejide, Alistair Soyode, Kingsley Moghalu, Tope Fasua, and others (not in any particular order).

The lesson I learnt from that 2011 experiment will live with me forever. The first is that Nigeria must find a way to return to a two-party system. Our young candidates would have better chances if they emerged from mainstream parties. It would have been a straight fight between, perhaps, an older candidate and a youthful one. I believe, this must be the reason Alhaji Atiku Abubakar promptly cashed in on that punchline when he described himself as the bridge between the old and the young. And if you watched the interview conducted by the strong lady, Kadaira Ahmed, with Atiku and Peter Obi, the difference was clear. Atiku looked more energetic, mentally alert, eloquent, knowledgeable, presentable, exposed, cosmopolitan and business-like notwithstanding the fact that he s only a few years younger than the President. I told some of my friends that night that if you give Buhari four terms, nothing would move because he would sit down in one position bemoaning the past and seeing future enemies. The stultification of Nigeria in the last four years is not as a result of PDP’s prodigality of the previous 16 years, but because of the sluggishness, taciturnity, clannishness, vindictiveness, obstinacy, and crass ignorance of many members of the Buhari cabal and cult.

There is nothing APC has not done to rewrite history. Their present supporters are the rudest humans I have ever encountered. They are incapable of any logical or superior argument. They are rigidly programmed to see anyone not in their camp as a thief and looter, as if that is all there is to governance. Atiku was able to point this out during the Kadaria encounter, when he boldly declared that rather than waste resources and precious time on chasing a few rats, he would consider granting amnesty to some of the looters as a quicker resolution and foreclosure to the unfortunate saga. Nearly 21 years after the death of General Sani Abacha, Nigeria is yet to fully recover all the alleged fortune in foreign lands. The money is not useful to Nigeria in foreign coffers. Some people disagreed with Atiku’s strategy for fighting corruption, but they forgot that it is foolhardy to grant amnesty to terrorists and murderers and refuse to consider same for pen robbers. The tragedy of Buhari’s entrenched position is that he and his disciples are not business-like. Everything must be fought as a jihad when some of the problems require tact and common sense.

I’m confident to say Buhari has not won new fans in the last four years, or better put, he has lost far more than he has gained, if any at all.

This election would be fought on several fronts. The first is funding. Atiku will never be able to compete on this account. Buhari is certainly not like former President Jonathan who was more democratically relaxed and thus allowed Buhari to campaign and roam freely. But for Atiku’s courage and extensive contact and global network, his campaign would have collapsed ages ago. Buhari and his people must be worried about how Atiku has managed to run such an efficient campaign filled with substance, entertainment and excitement. While the APC Chairman, Adams Oshiomhole, and others continue to abuse PDP and even members of their own party, Atiku and company cannot be seen attacking people. The melodious and mellifluous campaign song of Atikulation is catching on sporadically on social media. The infighting in APC should be cause for alarm. Things are falling apart in so many states and Buhari has not demonstrated enough capacity to reconcile his party. Except a miracle happens, APC is not likely to field candidates in several states of the Federation.

Next is ethnicity. This will play a major role in the imminent General elections. It appears that Buhari has walked into a major trap this time around. Unlike his pan-Nigerian outlook in 2015, he has atrociously become the most clannish leader in Nigeria’s contemporary history. For a man nursing a second term ambition, it is strange and inconceivable that he would throw caution to the winds the way he did when he carried his Fulanisation of Nigeria to bizarre levels. He should have known that when tomorrow comes, his perceived actions would come back to haunt and torment him. Except for his die-hard supporters, it would be difficult, if not impossible, for Buhari to say he is the true father of the nation when he has blatantly refused to embrace everyone. The interesting thing is that an in-depth analysis might show that there is a balancing exercise over time, but the nature and manner of the appointments Buhari has made is what leaves much to be desired and is particularly galling.

Once upon a time, Buhari enjoyed a cult-like followership in several parts of Nigeria, especially, in the North West and North East. I believe he still does, but not on the scale he did in the past. I predict a substantial reduction in his votes in key States that he could afford to take for granted in the past. I will start with the massive State of Kano. Say what you will, former Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso, will chip off a minimum 40 percent of Buhari’s previous votes in Kano, that is if not up to 50 percent. Those who claim Buhari is invincible may be right to some extent, but he lost some precious diamond the day APC allowed the iroko tree called Rabiu Kwankwaso to quit APC. This development will plague Buhari in this election.

I will say President Buhari reached the peak of his glory and popularity in 2015. For the first time, he was able to secure the support of so many who had written him off in the past as being too old and archaic. The hatred for PDP and its leadership blinded many of us from seeing all the warts we had complained about and Buhari became our new bride. Despite the blistering campaign for Buhari nationwide and the alliances formed between the powerful forces that combined to form APC, and some noticeable, but studiously ignored infractions during the election, the difference in votes between Buhari and Jonathan was under three million. Buhari’s popularity has since dwindled dramatically since then. APC chieftains know within them that they are currently on a very difficult mission to bring Buhari back to power. They are aware that he has become too old and tired and sickly, but they are goading him on for their personal survival. This explains all the moves to urgently take over other arms of government that are likely to make things difficult if they need to perform some magic like they did in Osun State recently.

My first forecast is that Buhari will win many States in the North West, but not with the kind of margin that he had in 2015. Atiku will challenge him big time in Sokoto, Kebbi, Zamfara, Kano, Kaduna and even Katsina. It was easier for Buhari in 2015 because he contested against a Southerner, but this time around, Atiku is as Fulani as they come. Not just that, Atiku has structures and he’s been in the race for over 25 years and thus built many bridges and made strong connections with a veritably formidable network of friends and associates. Buhari used to do very well in the North East, especially in Bauchi, but it should be noted that, this time around, Atiku is from the North East and he would put up a major fight in his territory. Buhari may still have a slight edge, here and there, but nothing monumental enough to shake Atiku.

Atiku will perform better than Buhari in the North Central. This may help him cancel some deficit he may have acquired in the North West and North East. Atiku is likely to obliterate Buhari in the South East and South South, the traditional enclave of PDP. South East offers a unique advantage because Atiku’s Vice President candidate comes from here as well as Atiku’s adorable wife, Jennifer. But since every vote for Atiku is badly needed, he would have to find a way to galvanise people of his catchment area to come out to vote and defend their votes. The South West is a bit dicey for both Buhari and Atiku. Buhari’s Vice President, Professor Yemi Osinbajo comes from this zone and he is well loved by his people though many have complained that Buhari has handed too much power to his cabal instead of empowering this cerebral, refined, hardworking and meticulous gentleman who has shown a capacity and ability to galvanise and unify Nigeria. However, Atiku’s matronly wife, Titi, also comes from this zone which further complicates the equation because she is also well loved by women who feel she performed well as wife of the Vice President, from 1999-2007. I still expect APC to defeat PDP in this zone even though the margin of victory may be slender.

As the Economist has predicted once again, I see a tight race but a slim victory that would make Atiku Abubakar the next President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

We wait with bated breath!

OXFORD UNIVERSITY, HERE I COME

At the end of January, I received wonderful news regarding my application for admission to the African Studies Centre of the University of Oxford. As everyone who follows me knows, academia is my first love. My dream was always to be a teacher and once I stepped into the hallowed precincts of Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, then known as University of Ife, it was love at first sight with academics. The love fest was complete as I walked into the sanctuary of books at the University Library where I worked from 1977-78 and my passion for reading simply exploded. I knew that this was what I had been made for, and my career in journalism has merely been a rite of passage towards the achievement and fulfilment of my quest for the knowledge that comes from reading and academics.

And so, it was with great joy, elation and excitement that I received the letter from the Director of The African Studies Centre, and The Rhodes Professor of Race Relations at the Oxford School of Global and Area Studies, Professor Wale Adebanwi, informing me that at the instance of the University of Oxford, United Kingdom, I had been approved as an Academic Visitor at the African Studies Centre of Oxford University. Professor Adebanwi wrote:

“I am happy to inform you that the Management Committee of the African Studies Centre, University of Oxford, UK, has approved your request for an Academic Visitor status at the Centre in the Hillary and Trinity Terms, 2019 – that is, between February and July 2019.

Oxford University’s African Studies Centre (see: http://www.africanstudies.ox.ac.uk/) is one of the world’s leading centres of African Studies. The Centre is the focal point for graduate level work and faculty research on Africa. Alongside a vibrant doctoral (DPhil) programme, the MSc in African Studies, inaugurated in 2006, is already recognised as one of Europe’s most prestigious and most successful training programmes in its field. We have trained graduate students who are now holding important positions in different spheres of social, economic and political life in Africa and the rest of the world.

We note that during your fellowship at the Centre, you plan to work on a book manuscript based on your experiences as a journalist, writer, publisher and social media activist entitled, “Celebrity Journalism and the Social Media in Contemporary Africa.”

We will expect you to present aspects of your work at a seminar before the end of your fellowship.

We look forward to hosting you. And we hope your time at Oxford will be mutually rewarding.”

It is my aim to utilise my rare combined degrees – a first degree in Yoruba from the University of Ife (now known as Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife) and a Master’s degree in Literature-in-English – to craft a biography of my journey through the world of journalism, politics and social activism.

Since I announced that I was going to be working on this book manuscript at Oxford University, my teeming readers and supporters have been asking about the fate of this Column. I wish to assure everybody including all my regular readers and fans that this Column will continue to appear regularly and will not be prejudiced, but rather enhanced, by my new adventure.

I hope you will all join me as I start another phase of my life and pray for the success of this new endeavour.

Headline

Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway: Prioritize Existing Unfinished Projects, Peter Obi Tells FG

Published

2 days ago

April 22, 2024

Eric

Mr. Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s presidential candidate in the 2023 general election, has advised the federal government to prioritize existing unfinished projects spread across the country instead of the Lagos-Calabar coastal highway project.

Obi, in a series of posts on X (formerly Twitter) on Monday, stated that the project was a misplaced priority given the numerous unfinished roads throughout the country.

The former governor of Anambra State mentioned that the budget allocated to the Ministry of Works is insufficient for significant progress on the country’s various unfinished roads, much less their completion.

Obi therefore, advised that the government prioritize the existing infrastructural projects in the country before embarking on any new and colossal projects like the Lagos-Calabar super highway project.

“The Federal Ministry of Works 2024 capital budget of N892,461,262,656.00, additional funding from multilateral loan projects of N94,828,535,243.00, alongside other expected contributions from sources like the China-Exim Bank and the World Bank, will not be enough for serious work on all the critical roads, some of which I enumerated above, let alone their completion.

So, why embark on another huge project that will not be completed in the next 20 or 30 years?

“To do so will only exacerbate the problem of abandoned, uncompleted projects that are not contributing to economic growth and overall development.

“Therefore, while acknowledging the potential benefits of coastal superhighway infrastructure, I urge prioritization of our existing uncompleted projects. We must allocate resources towards repairing and completing existing infrastructure.

“In any development formula, the primary focus should be on completing and rehabilitating existing infrastructure rather than embarking on colossal new projects that may never reach completion within the next 30 years,” Obi said.

Back in March, the Federal Government began constructing the 700-kilometer Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, designed to extend through 9 states with two spurs leading to the Northern States.

Recall that former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, had earlier described the project as a fraud.

“Umahi had announced that Hitech would fully fund the project, and based on this, there was no competitive bidding. He (Umahi) then said that Hitech could only raise just 6% of the money for the pilot phase. This smacks of deceit,” Atiku said.

Headline

2027 Presidential Race: Opposition Parties Under Attack

Published

3 days ago

April 21, 2024

Eric

By Eric Elezuo

While it is still a whole three years before the next general election in 2027, The Boss has learnt that opposition parties in the countries are being muffled to pave the way for the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to return to, and retain power.

From the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), to the Labour Party (LP), and down to the New Nigerian Peoples Paty (NNPP), crises have engulfed the rank and files, in what a source told this paper was the attempt and making of the ruling party, APC, to decimate, destabilize and make redundant the machineries of the opposition parties.

It is believed that by 2027, the apparatuses holding together the various opposition parties would have weakened irredeemably to the extent the country would seemingly nosedive into the inglorious one party state that every civil right advocate and democrats abhor.

It is alleged that all the crises in all the opposition parties are being engineered by the President Bola Tinubu-led ruling APC, with the hope of getting the fibres of their system weakened, thereby luring the members of the crisis-ridden parties into the APC.

Slightly one year after the last presidential election, the two major opposition platforms, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party, have separately been embroiled in a crisis of confidence which has diminished their capacity to provide viable opposition to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

The crises in both opposition parties got to a head. The Labour Party led by its national chairman Julius Abure held its much-opposed national convention which was boycotted by its 2023 presidential candidate, Peter Obi; its only governor, Alex Otti of Abia State; federal and state lawmakers elected on its platform, and the organised Labour.

In the Labour Labour, members have been embroiled in endless battle of supremacy with a faction led by Mr. Apapa steadily contesting the leadership of Julius Abure.

Consequently, the presidential candidate of the party in the 2023 elections, Mr. Peter Obi, reverence as a leader in the fold, noting that whatever the party faces presently, that Nigeria’s problems are far bigger than the crises in his party.

The LP has been embroiled in crises — ranging from allegations of misappropriation of funds, and leadership tussle, to calls for the resignation of the party’s national chairman.

TheCable reported that “On March 27, the LP conducted a national convention in Anambra state where Julius Abure was re-elected as its national chairman.

Obi did not attend the convention, fuelling speculations that he may be mulling over ditching the LP for another platform.

Speaking during an appearance on HaveYourSay247, an interactive online session hosted by Rudolf Okonkwo over the weekend, Obi said he is confident that the crises rocking the LP will soon be resolved amicably.

“Whatever is happening in the Labour Party is so minute compared to what is happening in the country,” Obi said.

“So, for me, it is something we will resolve amicably, and it is not anything to worry about. Let us worry about the country.

“Let us worry about how the average Nigerian would be able to have a means of livelihood to be able to eat, that should be our worry.”

Obi said he has no interest in being the party’s leader but only to make sure things are done properly.

“I don’t see what I do in politics as being the leader of any place or not. My position is that just like I always say, I am not desperate to be president of Nigeria, I am desperate to see Nigeria work because I know it can work,” he added.

“We have a more desperate situation. Parties are just a means to be able to contest elections. What is important is that being a leader of a party does not reduce the price of food.

In the PDP, the shenanigans of former Rivers State Governor, Mr. Nyesom Wike, has practically kept the party in constant crisis with many observers concluding that the now Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) is working for the APC, and is just a mole in the PDP. Wike has denied the allegation, however,

But news filtered in last week as that the immediate past Governor of Rivers State, and Minister may have concluded plans to attend the much advertised National Executive Council (NEC) meeting of the main opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), billed to hold on Thursday, in Abuja.

Impeccable source, who is in the know, told The Boss that the minister, whose membership of the PDP is yet to be revoked even as he frolicks with the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), and serving in the President Bola Tinubu government as a minister.

The Source told The Boss that Wike’s impending presence at the NEC meeting on Thursday was not unconnected with plans, already hatched with some governors, to weaken the opposition PDP.

“Yes, we have on good authority that FCT minister, Wike is planning to attend the NEC meeting tomorrow all in a bid to weaken the fabrics of the PDP, and pave the way for the continuation of the Tinubu administration come 2027, and by extension, relapse Nigeria to a full blown one party state.

“From every indication, Wike and his co-travellers, are bent on unleashing the same crisis ravaging the third force, Labour Party, and Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso’s Nigerian National People’s Party (NNPP) on the PDP for the APC to remain the only political party in the country, and ensure that Tinubu has no challenger, come 2027,” the Source said.

It would be recalled that Wike has boasted over and again that there’s no opposition against Tinubu’s re-emergence in 2027, and that they have made sure of that. He has been compensated with the Ministerial job after he withdrew support for his party, and supported the APC and Tinubu to emerge as national government.

The Source further revealed that in the attempt to actualize the intended one party state, a lot of funding is ongoing to ensure that concerned stakeholders are ‘settled’ handsomely.

Wike, prior, during and after the 2023 general elections, has been floating in between the two major political parties; the APC and the PDP. While he claim to still be a member of the PDP, he is functioning as a minister in an APC government, mocking the inability of his party to discipline him.

While political stakeholders concluded that the outcome of the Thursday’s PDP NEC meeting will determine the path Nigeria’s political trajectory will take, and that it may portend the end of multi-party system and political democracy if Wike succeeds in his plan; every page of what finally transpired at the meeting pointed to the fact.

The much touted removal of the party chairman, who is believed to be a crony of the Abuja minister, Damagum, retained his seat, with his executives.

“It is very clear to everyone that a lot of money politics is being played to cajole many loyal members of the party, forcing them into frustration, and eventually it of the party. The option afterwards, will be the APC. This, will for all intent and purpose actualize the intended one party state as an APC agenda.

The Musa Rabiu Kwankwaso-led NNPP is not faring better either. The only governor under their ticket, Abba Kabir Yusuf, just had the confidence of their party on him withdrawn. He was fighting for his political life until suddenly it was announced the the APC in Kano has collapsed its structure into the NNPP.

“This is just another APC strategy to actualize their hidden intentions. Time will reveal the very sinister agenda they harboring,” an analyst said.

Much as 2027 is still three years away, but intrigues are in play to render Nigeria a one party state, and perpetuate the APC in power. The three other opposition parties are basically under attack to bring to pass this unpopular agenda.

Headline

Akwa Ibom Government, Governor Umo Eno Receive Top Honors at the 10th Wonders of the World Expo in Lagos

Published

3 days ago

April 21, 2024

Admin

The Akwa Ibom State Government and Governor Pastor Umo Eno were recognized with Travellers Awards at the 10th Wonders of the World Expo in Lagos for their sustained enhancement of infrastructure, support for local talent, and dedication to investment in the tourism sector. The ceremony took place at the National Museum in Onikan, Lagos.

While Akwa Ibom won the Most Active Tourism State of the Year, Governor Eno was adjudged the most Tourism-Friendly Governor of the Year at the event that had Minister of Tourism, Mrs. Lola Ade John in attendance.

According to Amb. Ikechi Uko, Founder/Publisher of ATQ Magazine, the organizers of the event which is in its tenth edition, Akwa Ibom State won the top prize “in recognition of its valiant and resourceful efforts to drive and sustain domestic tourism by promoting the industry.

‘In 2023, Akwa Ibom was one of the states that hosted World Tourism Day (WTD ) events. The state also organized the famous Christmas Unplugged, which featured music, food, and cultures from all 31 LGAs as well as ensured friendly policies.”

While hoping that the Travellers Awards would spur Akwa Ibom to do more to dominate the domestic tourism industry, the organizers hoped that the state would gradually evolve into one of Nigeria’s top international tourism destinations.

That was not all, the state Commissioner of Culture and Tourism, Sir Charles Udoh was also recognized as one of the Top 100 Tourism Personalities in Nigeria for demonstrating exceptional leadership and innovation in the travel and tourism industry, while other Akwa Ibom indigenes and entity were also celebrated: Mrs. Ime Udo, Honorary Special Adviser to the Governor( Tourism) won Tourism Promoter of the Year, Favour Udo won Tourism Photographer of the Year, Loretta Effiong and Prince Uduak Sunday (Qua Tours) were listed among the Tourism Personalities of the Year and Ibom Air won Airline of the Year International.

In his remarks, Sir Charles Udoh, who represented the Governor at the event, thanked the organizers for the awards and noted that Akwa Ibom is certainly enjoying the golden era when it comes to tourism development. He stated that Governor Umo Eno is very keen on making Akwa Ibom a leading tourism destination with his programmes and policies.

He revealed that with the new Victor Attah International Airport nearing completion, the purchase of a ferry for the Oron-Calabar route, new developments along its coastline and the restoration work that will be done at all its major tourism sites, Akwa Ibom is well on the way to becoming the number one destination for all domestic and foreign tourists.

In her speech, Tourism Minister, Mrs. Ade John hailed the organizers for hosting the Expo, where practitioners were lectured by top experts while also rewarding those who have excelled in the past year.

She affirmed that her ministry is open to partnership with public and private sector operators, adding that tourism development can only be successful through collaborative efforts.

The event, which attracted leading and budding tourism professionals, also featured interactive and entertainment sessions.

Apart from Sir Charles Udoh and Mrs. Ime Udo, the Akwa Ibom State delegation, also included: Mr. Michael Effiong James, Senior Special Assistant (Lagos Liaison) to Governor, Mrs. Eme Bassey, Special Assistant to Governor (Lagos Liaison) and Akparawa John Offiong, Deputy Director ( Culture) Ministry of Culture and Tourism.

More photos below: