Headline

The Facts and the Fictions about Buhari’s Electoral Invincibility

Published

6 years ago

October 5, 2018

Eric

By Abdullahi Dass

It is generally believed that President Muhammadu Buhari has a near unshakeable stranglehold on the electorate in the North, especially in the North-west zone consisting of Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Jigawa, Sokoto and Zamfara States.

For a fact, in the last 15 years, Buhari has consistently garnered between 11 and 12 million votes in the three zones of the North. The only exception was when he contested against Late President Umaru Musa Yar’adua in 2007 when his acclaimed domination of northern electorate was broken almost along the middle. Yar’Adua polled 48 percent to Buhari’s 52 percent. This might be due to the fact that both men are Fulani Muslims from same Katsina State.

The question therefore arises that: Is it not better for any party that intends to defeat the Buhari administration democratically to field a candidate with similar influence and pluses like Yar’Adua from the North-west?

There is the need, at this point, to note that Yar’Adua’s exemplary performance against Buhari was not all due to political attributes of the former Governor of Katsina State.

Two factors were at play here, the most important being that Yar’Adua contested against Buhari with the solid and strong backing of a highly respected national icon, President Olusegun Obasanjo who was then the incumbent President.

Obasanjo was in firm control of the Presidency and he had tried to stay in power through a third term agenda, which ordinarily going by the culture of politics in Africa, was not too difficult an ambition to achieve. However, the plan failed. The Northern reaction, from both the elite and the grassroots was that of gratitude and relief that Obasanjo was finally leaving and giving the North a chance to gain power back. It was made a lot easier because the candidate, Yar’Adua was a Northern aristocrat and a Muslim.

Against such considerations and situations mentioned above, the Buhari phenomenon paled into insignificance when put alongside an overriding and collective Northern interest and intense desire to get power back. In that particular election, head and tail, the North was sure to win. Sacrificing Buhari was a no issue. However, today, the situation is completely different and not comparable to what existed in 2007.

None of the aspirants in the opposition party – Governor Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, Alhaji Attahiru Bafarawa, Barrister Tanimu Turaki, Senator Rafiu Musa Kwankwaso, Alhaji Sule Lamido and Sen. Ahmed Makarfi has the political clout capable of doing any significant havoc comparable to that done by Umaru Yar’adua.

First, as common to all of them their maximum influence is nearly limited to their states of origin. This applies to Saminu Turaki, Tambuwal, Bafarawa, Lamido and Makarfi. Only Kwankwaso has a not too significant spread outside Kano, his state of origin. The Kwankwansiya movement essentially exists, at least 90 percent of it, in Kano and its environs. It is not distinctly noticeable in Sokoto or Kebbi, and neither in Yobe or Adamawa, not to talk of Niger and Nassarawa.

Unfortunately, even in Kano, its influence has been slightly whittled down by Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau’s recent defection to Buhari’s All Progressives Congress (APC). The combination of two of the three strong political pillars in Kano (Gov. Umaru Ganduje and Shekarau) being in APC, is a mortal injury to the Kwankwansiya movement in Kano.

Second, as clearly stated in the Yar’Adua case, the existence of a supportive incumbent Federal Government assisted the candidate in no small measure and the absence of such incumbent support presently, totally renders impotent any dream possibility of depleting or eroding Buhari’s support base in the the North West or the North in general by any of the acclaimed opposition aspirants from the North West.

Third, none of these aspirants from the North-west has any known or politically appreciable presence, followership, support or acceptability in any of the Southern zones. Their penetration in the South is abysmally poor and insignificant and they can only rely on ineffectual acolytes to mobilise support for them in the South.

In conclusion, therefore, none of the six aspirants in the PDP from the North West has what it takes to even reduce Buhari’s electoral value by as much as 10 percent in the North West or North in general. And also, none has a known or visible following in the south with which they can upstage Buhari’s entrenched political associates in the South, especially in the South West, which is the second largest voting population in the country.

THE FICTION:

The greatest political fallacy concerning the 2019 elections however is the postulation that a President cannot emerge in Nigeria without the person winning in the North-west zone. Nothing can be farther from the truth than this assumption or perception. The reality, the national political antecedents and bare electoral facts based on past results do not support this position.

First, if the votes of the North west was of such electoral indispensability, why was it impossible for Buhari to win in his first three attempts at the Presidency, despite his consistent six million votes from the North west and approximately 12 million votes from the entire North in all previous three elections; 2003, 2007 and 2011.

Second, in 2003, Obasanjo polled a total votes of 24.2 million against Buhari”s 13.12 million. If all the votes Obasanjo garnered from the North Central, North East and North West (9 million) were to be removed from his votes, he would still have won with a total of 15.2 million votes against Buhari’s total 13.12 million across the country.

Third, in 2011, former President Goodluck Jonathan defeated Buhari, polling a total of 22.2 million as against Buhari’s 12.09 million. Of this vote for Buhari, a whopping 10.7 million came from the three northern zones

Also, as it was with Obasanjo in 2003, so it was with Jonathan in 2011. If all the 8.3 million votes scored by the former President in the three Northern zones were to be totally deleted from his votes he would still have defeated Buhari because Jonathan would have had 13.9 million votes left to Buhari’s 12. 09 million votes.

In 2019, there are new considerations which make Buhari’s victory against a nationally acceptable opposition candidate an electoral impossibility.

One, 2015 was Buhari’s finest year politically. He was packaged and widely accepted as a national saint, poor but with unparalleled integrity; with great expectations about competence and capability. Unfortunately, even among his most ardent supporters, these “dream” attributes have simply evaporated.

Gross incompetence, lack of capacity and lack of direction has replaced Buhari’s erstwhile “white coated” qualities and general perception.

The prevailing economic conditions, pervasive poverty, hunger, insecurity and growing unemployment across the social strata in the country has made Buhari’s ratings and acceptability to nose-dive. The frightening effect of the unchecked activities of the herdsmen and the obvious and undisguised parochialism that is rife in this administration has further eroded the confidence people have in this administration.

It is safe, therefore, to assume that of the 12 million regular votes for Buhari in the North, a conservative 20 percent of these votes must have been lost because of all the facts stated above plus the fact that some of the major support pillars, the strength of which supported Buhari to come to power have left him and his party. This will include members of the new PDP like Senate President Abubakar Bukola Saraki, Kwankwaso and others. This effectively will reduce the 12 million votes to (12-2.4 million) 9.6million votes.

Buhari garnered two million votes from the six states of the North Central in 2015. Today, only Nassarawa, Kogi and Niger remain in the group. This easily can be translated to another loss of about one million votes.

Effectively, the Buhari electoral “supremo” value has grossly reduced to between 8 and 9 million votes. If we make allowance for the 10 million increase in registered voters nationwide and with the projected voter turnout of about 50 percent, Buhari’s vote may however increase by an extra one million votes.

From all the above, without rigging or any widespread electoral malpractice, as witnessed in the Osun State case, the maximum votes Buhari will get from the North will be less than 10 million votes in total.

To make matters worse, any vote lost by Buhari from his Northern homestead, he will not recover it from any other zone in the South. Also, any candidate that can poll the kind of votes from the North Central, and the entire South like Obasanjo did in 2003, and Jonathan did in 2011 will win the 2019 elections with an overwhelming majority.

In the South-east and South South zones, Buhari’s performance will not change significantly. The IPOB phenomenon will definitely predominate 2019. A rehearsal was what happened in Anambra governorship elections where the two big parties; APC and PDP with their massive resources were thoroughly beaten and disgraced. The masses disobeyed and ignored their elite leadership and voted not for just the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), but against the interest of the incumbent Federal Government in the South-east.

The South-south is not expected to be much different. There may be a spike of support in Akwa Ibom State due to the influence of Senator Godswill Akpabio, but a spike it will be. No more!

The South-west presents a totally different scenario. Today, and all-through the presidential election in 2019, all the six states in the South- west will be under the control of APC governors. In theory, they will be expected to deliver their states. But this will not happen .

Two of the governors will be lame duck; Oyo and Ogun. Others like Ondo, Ekiti and the new one in Osun are not popular and cannot really exercise much political authority on the voters. The most sophisticated electorate is in the South-west. The electorate here has discerning capabilities and has an antecedent of punishing erring governments and political groups. The leader of APC in the South-west, has lost so much political goodwill and currency. He is almost an expiring political ‘generalissimo’.

In the South West, the results of local elections, that is; governorship, senate, House of Representatives and state assemblies will be different from that of the presidential election.

However, because the entire South-west will be governed by APC governors, and because the South West represents the second largest voting population in the country, it will be impossible for the opposition to win in 2019, if it leaves the South-west completely open and the electorate without any choice if it selects a candidate that on his own does not have any special appeal to the electorate in this zone.

The political irony here is that a North-west candidate is not what is required for PDP to win in 2019 against Buhari. Rather, the political imperative is in the choice of a candidate that can split the South-west votes. This actually is the master key that can ensure victory for the opposition in 2019.

Dass, a political analyst, writes from Abuja

Culled from ThisDay

Headline

Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway: Prioritize Existing Unfinished Projects, Peter Obi Tells FG

Published

3 days ago

April 22, 2024

Eric

Mr. Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s presidential candidate in the 2023 general election, has advised the federal government to prioritize existing unfinished projects spread across the country instead of the Lagos-Calabar coastal highway project.

Obi, in a series of posts on X (formerly Twitter) on Monday, stated that the project was a misplaced priority given the numerous unfinished roads throughout the country.

The former governor of Anambra State mentioned that the budget allocated to the Ministry of Works is insufficient for significant progress on the country’s various unfinished roads, much less their completion.

Obi therefore, advised that the government prioritize the existing infrastructural projects in the country before embarking on any new and colossal projects like the Lagos-Calabar super highway project.

“The Federal Ministry of Works 2024 capital budget of N892,461,262,656.00, additional funding from multilateral loan projects of N94,828,535,243.00, alongside other expected contributions from sources like the China-Exim Bank and the World Bank, will not be enough for serious work on all the critical roads, some of which I enumerated above, let alone their completion.

So, why embark on another huge project that will not be completed in the next 20 or 30 years?

“To do so will only exacerbate the problem of abandoned, uncompleted projects that are not contributing to economic growth and overall development.

“Therefore, while acknowledging the potential benefits of coastal superhighway infrastructure, I urge prioritization of our existing uncompleted projects. We must allocate resources towards repairing and completing existing infrastructure.

“In any development formula, the primary focus should be on completing and rehabilitating existing infrastructure rather than embarking on colossal new projects that may never reach completion within the next 30 years,” Obi said.

Back in March, the Federal Government began constructing the 700-kilometer Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, designed to extend through 9 states with two spurs leading to the Northern States.

Recall that former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, had earlier described the project as a fraud.

“Umahi had announced that Hitech would fully fund the project, and based on this, there was no competitive bidding. He (Umahi) then said that Hitech could only raise just 6% of the money for the pilot phase. This smacks of deceit,” Atiku said.

Headline

2027 Presidential Race: Opposition Parties Under Attack

Published

4 days ago

April 21, 2024

Eric

By Eric Elezuo

While it is still a whole three years before the next general election in 2027, The Boss has learnt that opposition parties in the countries are being muffled to pave the way for the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to return to, and retain power.

From the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), to the Labour Party (LP), and down to the New Nigerian Peoples Paty (NNPP), crises have engulfed the rank and files, in what a source told this paper was the attempt and making of the ruling party, APC, to decimate, destabilize and make redundant the machineries of the opposition parties.

It is believed that by 2027, the apparatuses holding together the various opposition parties would have weakened irredeemably to the extent the country would seemingly nosedive into the inglorious one party state that every civil right advocate and democrats abhor.

It is alleged that all the crises in all the opposition parties are being engineered by the President Bola Tinubu-led ruling APC, with the hope of getting the fibres of their system weakened, thereby luring the members of the crisis-ridden parties into the APC.

Slightly one year after the last presidential election, the two major opposition platforms, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party, have separately been embroiled in a crisis of confidence which has diminished their capacity to provide viable opposition to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

The crises in both opposition parties got to a head. The Labour Party led by its national chairman Julius Abure held its much-opposed national convention which was boycotted by its 2023 presidential candidate, Peter Obi; its only governor, Alex Otti of Abia State; federal and state lawmakers elected on its platform, and the organised Labour.

In the Labour Labour, members have been embroiled in endless battle of supremacy with a faction led by Mr. Apapa steadily contesting the leadership of Julius Abure.

Consequently, the presidential candidate of the party in the 2023 elections, Mr. Peter Obi, reverence as a leader in the fold, noting that whatever the party faces presently, that Nigeria’s problems are far bigger than the crises in his party.

The LP has been embroiled in crises — ranging from allegations of misappropriation of funds, and leadership tussle, to calls for the resignation of the party’s national chairman.

TheCable reported that “On March 27, the LP conducted a national convention in Anambra state where Julius Abure was re-elected as its national chairman.

Obi did not attend the convention, fuelling speculations that he may be mulling over ditching the LP for another platform.

Speaking during an appearance on HaveYourSay247, an interactive online session hosted by Rudolf Okonkwo over the weekend, Obi said he is confident that the crises rocking the LP will soon be resolved amicably.

“Whatever is happening in the Labour Party is so minute compared to what is happening in the country,” Obi said.

“So, for me, it is something we will resolve amicably, and it is not anything to worry about. Let us worry about the country.

“Let us worry about how the average Nigerian would be able to have a means of livelihood to be able to eat, that should be our worry.”

Obi said he has no interest in being the party’s leader but only to make sure things are done properly.

“I don’t see what I do in politics as being the leader of any place or not. My position is that just like I always say, I am not desperate to be president of Nigeria, I am desperate to see Nigeria work because I know it can work,” he added.

“We have a more desperate situation. Parties are just a means to be able to contest elections. What is important is that being a leader of a party does not reduce the price of food.

In the PDP, the shenanigans of former Rivers State Governor, Mr. Nyesom Wike, has practically kept the party in constant crisis with many observers concluding that the now Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) is working for the APC, and is just a mole in the PDP. Wike has denied the allegation, however,

But news filtered in last week as that the immediate past Governor of Rivers State, and Minister may have concluded plans to attend the much advertised National Executive Council (NEC) meeting of the main opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), billed to hold on Thursday, in Abuja.

Impeccable source, who is in the know, told The Boss that the minister, whose membership of the PDP is yet to be revoked even as he frolicks with the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), and serving in the President Bola Tinubu government as a minister.

The Source told The Boss that Wike’s impending presence at the NEC meeting on Thursday was not unconnected with plans, already hatched with some governors, to weaken the opposition PDP.

“Yes, we have on good authority that FCT minister, Wike is planning to attend the NEC meeting tomorrow all in a bid to weaken the fabrics of the PDP, and pave the way for the continuation of the Tinubu administration come 2027, and by extension, relapse Nigeria to a full blown one party state.

“From every indication, Wike and his co-travellers, are bent on unleashing the same crisis ravaging the third force, Labour Party, and Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso’s Nigerian National People’s Party (NNPP) on the PDP for the APC to remain the only political party in the country, and ensure that Tinubu has no challenger, come 2027,” the Source said.

It would be recalled that Wike has boasted over and again that there’s no opposition against Tinubu’s re-emergence in 2027, and that they have made sure of that. He has been compensated with the Ministerial job after he withdrew support for his party, and supported the APC and Tinubu to emerge as national government.

The Source further revealed that in the attempt to actualize the intended one party state, a lot of funding is ongoing to ensure that concerned stakeholders are ‘settled’ handsomely.

Wike, prior, during and after the 2023 general elections, has been floating in between the two major political parties; the APC and the PDP. While he claim to still be a member of the PDP, he is functioning as a minister in an APC government, mocking the inability of his party to discipline him.

While political stakeholders concluded that the outcome of the Thursday’s PDP NEC meeting will determine the path Nigeria’s political trajectory will take, and that it may portend the end of multi-party system and political democracy if Wike succeeds in his plan; every page of what finally transpired at the meeting pointed to the fact.

The much touted removal of the party chairman, who is believed to be a crony of the Abuja minister, Damagum, retained his seat, with his executives.

“It is very clear to everyone that a lot of money politics is being played to cajole many loyal members of the party, forcing them into frustration, and eventually it of the party. The option afterwards, will be the APC. This, will for all intent and purpose actualize the intended one party state as an APC agenda.

The Musa Rabiu Kwankwaso-led NNPP is not faring better either. The only governor under their ticket, Abba Kabir Yusuf, just had the confidence of their party on him withdrawn. He was fighting for his political life until suddenly it was announced the the APC in Kano has collapsed its structure into the NNPP.

“This is just another APC strategy to actualize their hidden intentions. Time will reveal the very sinister agenda they harboring,” an analyst said.

Much as 2027 is still three years away, but intrigues are in play to render Nigeria a one party state, and perpetuate the APC in power. The three other opposition parties are basically under attack to bring to pass this unpopular agenda.

Headline

Akwa Ibom Government, Governor Umo Eno Receive Top Honors at the 10th Wonders of the World Expo in Lagos

Published

4 days ago

April 21, 2024

Admin

The Akwa Ibom State Government and Governor Pastor Umo Eno were recognized with Travellers Awards at the 10th Wonders of the World Expo in Lagos for their sustained enhancement of infrastructure, support for local talent, and dedication to investment in the tourism sector. The ceremony took place at the National Museum in Onikan, Lagos.

While Akwa Ibom won the Most Active Tourism State of the Year, Governor Eno was adjudged the most Tourism-Friendly Governor of the Year at the event that had Minister of Tourism, Mrs. Lola Ade John in attendance.

According to Amb. Ikechi Uko, Founder/Publisher of ATQ Magazine, the organizers of the event which is in its tenth edition, Akwa Ibom State won the top prize “in recognition of its valiant and resourceful efforts to drive and sustain domestic tourism by promoting the industry.

‘In 2023, Akwa Ibom was one of the states that hosted World Tourism Day (WTD ) events. The state also organized the famous Christmas Unplugged, which featured music, food, and cultures from all 31 LGAs as well as ensured friendly policies.”

While hoping that the Travellers Awards would spur Akwa Ibom to do more to dominate the domestic tourism industry, the organizers hoped that the state would gradually evolve into one of Nigeria’s top international tourism destinations.

That was not all, the state Commissioner of Culture and Tourism, Sir Charles Udoh was also recognized as one of the Top 100 Tourism Personalities in Nigeria for demonstrating exceptional leadership and innovation in the travel and tourism industry, while other Akwa Ibom indigenes and entity were also celebrated: Mrs. Ime Udo, Honorary Special Adviser to the Governor( Tourism) won Tourism Promoter of the Year, Favour Udo won Tourism Photographer of the Year, Loretta Effiong and Prince Uduak Sunday (Qua Tours) were listed among the Tourism Personalities of the Year and Ibom Air won Airline of the Year International.

In his remarks, Sir Charles Udoh, who represented the Governor at the event, thanked the organizers for the awards and noted that Akwa Ibom is certainly enjoying the golden era when it comes to tourism development. He stated that Governor Umo Eno is very keen on making Akwa Ibom a leading tourism destination with his programmes and policies.

He revealed that with the new Victor Attah International Airport nearing completion, the purchase of a ferry for the Oron-Calabar route, new developments along its coastline and the restoration work that will be done at all its major tourism sites, Akwa Ibom is well on the way to becoming the number one destination for all domestic and foreign tourists.

In her speech, Tourism Minister, Mrs. Ade John hailed the organizers for hosting the Expo, where practitioners were lectured by top experts while also rewarding those who have excelled in the past year.

She affirmed that her ministry is open to partnership with public and private sector operators, adding that tourism development can only be successful through collaborative efforts.

The event, which attracted leading and budding tourism professionals, also featured interactive and entertainment sessions.

Apart from Sir Charles Udoh and Mrs. Ime Udo, the Akwa Ibom State delegation, also included: Mr. Michael Effiong James, Senior Special Assistant (Lagos Liaison) to Governor, Mrs. Eme Bassey, Special Assistant to Governor (Lagos Liaison) and Akparawa John Offiong, Deputy Director ( Culture) Ministry of Culture and Tourism.

More photos below: